The nams are just dry idk. If you look at the hour by hour panels looks like it’s rippin but it’s only like .3” qpf by 15z while euro and gfs are like more than double that.
Thermals could be right, but also doesn't matter if it is not modeling the storm correctly or qpf. It is significantly drier than all the other models and the other ones are getting wetter each run.
Will be watching Nashville. They are forecasted for 2-3" If they get thumped with more then might be good sign for us, if they get skunked then we are cooked.