TSSN+

Op model runs should end at 120 after that it’s pretty meh. 

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I love how it’s November 26 and folks act like they know how December will go.

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Meh 

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't pay attention to modeled details of any specific threat beyond 7 days, man. You look for larger scale things not specifics. I find that watching a model run requires a certain level of emotional discipline...you can't go flying off at some discreet modeled threat changing/disappearing at D11, lol Yeah digital snow is fun to look at, but it's not to be taken literally at that range. Yeah I know if it disappears it "feels" like you've somehow "lost" it...but not so. You look more broadly at the pattern...there's a reason the more experienced posters here look at longwave patterns and such at Day 10 instead of an op run of a specific thing!

Ya it’s always day 10 lol 

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maybe a little bit easier to share it straight from Twitter:

 

Welp going to be a huge snowy period then. lol 

18z gfs with some Dec 5-6 magic 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Skepticism isn’t a bad plan given recent years. But we do have a good pattern starting basically today through next weekend. Just doesn’t look like it will do much for us except BN temps. This new -NAO dominated pattern after the 7th is still a recent arrival on guidance so caution is warranted. GEFS actually brings it in faster today on the 12z run. So far the opposite of cankicking.

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

Let’s get these looks inside 5/7 days. As always it’s 10+ days out. 

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I want a lot of events as well, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing for you to make.

He must never leave the operations center. 

BWI: 19.5”

DCA: 14.8”

IAD: 22.2”

RIC: 8.7”

SBY: 5.4”

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really liking the precip anomalies so far offshore. 

Besides the rain today looks dry for quite some time. 

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looking at the radar and pretending it’s snow.

Get used to that lol

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Hope there’s a surprise burst of snow/sleet tomorrow morning.  32/28 at the house but toasty sitting next to the fire in Alexandria.

Doubtful.

Per Lwx 9:11 update

Also, freezing rain potential is doubtful outside of Garrett County and guidance has definitely trended warmer with lesser ice accumulations since yesterday.

And of course 0z GFS and EURO turn to mush. I’m already tired of winter and it’s not even winter. 

Euro def cooking up something at 240. Too bad it’s 240 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Technically it's 13 days away.

33 days “Technically” 

16 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just some mixed signals on the guaranteed cold availability for PSUs first 1" of snow. Other than that, ssdd...Ji canceled winter and Chuck is talking oscillation indices.

28 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

FWIW.. baltimore forecasters.  Talking about possible snow here in central md... im Not buying it yet. Still too early. But still nice to see possibilities  in November lol

Like i said. FWIW...

 

Justin Berk. lol. Ignore. 

13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

1800DIALJI

Haha excellent 

What’s the number for the national winter cancellation hotline? 

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

The psu joke thing is getting old

This coming from you is hilarious 

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25??

Winter is canceled for the foreseeable future till nuclear winter kicks in.