poolz1

I think an argument can be made that the same tropical forcing that produces a cold east coast in the fall can create opposite results in the winter months. A phase 5/6 in Oct typically means below avg temps but roll those same phases forward and we torch. Fortunately, we are cycling through phases 1/2 with no real sign of heading toward the warmer phases....carry this forward and it will be a real positive for winter. So, maybe there is something to be said about early season cold/snow but like everything else its more complicated than just a blanket statement of early snow = winter torch.

Clearly the most anomalous cold in the NH looks to be in our neck of the woods. A heck of signal for a long range ensemble. Maybe a case of the gefs overestimating the cold...eps is similar but not as robust.

GEFS has been consistently advertising some significant warming over Siberia at 10mb. Starts around day 9 but seems to start to shove the PV towards the end of the run. I don’t expect a full on assault or anything but any temporary pauses in strengthening can only be a positive as we near the end of fall.

6” here from that one...your elevation certainly helped you out on that one I would think. That storm did a number on a huge black walnut tree we have on our property. It is one of the last trees to lose its leaves. Up to just a year or two ago we were still getting dead limbs finally falling as most of them were just snapped and hanging down.

Going to be wild ride in the LR if anything close the 12z gfs op run comes to fruition. Monster heights over Greenland. gefs agree with the look...as far as ensembles go.

The look advertised in the long range is reminiscent of 13/14... which is one of the analogs being thrown around if I'm not mistaken. Not much help in the NAO region but plenty of help on the PAC side. Although, I'll take the 06z gefs to start Dec for 800 Alex. Looking ripe.... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

40 at the house with crazy dense fog in the very low valleys. Quite a sight with the full moon illuminating the fog....No warewolf sightings but plenty of deer. It will be a miracle if I go the next thirty days with the same bumper on the truck.

Very familiar with the term but honestly have very little knowledge of the effects. Iirc, a low AAM is more indicative of a Nina state? Maybe I should do some reading! I feel like every year I add another piece of knowledge...may this year it will be understanding AAM. By the time I’m 90 I should be able to hang with some of the other posters in here. Lol

Both the gefs and eps have shown hints at a scan ridge developing in the LR. Still a little muted in the means but some runs are more robust than others. Gefs heights at 10mb show a strengthening PV but you can start to see the squeeze/elongation. Something to watch. Maybe our first jab?

Literally just got on to post this to banter...digital snow season has started! Gfs has hinted at a pretty robust cold high in the LR.

Living vicariously through ND. That massive band there currently has got to be absolutely raging.

I thought roughly the same thing...but to my eye that ridge seems too far west to produce a mean trough anywhere east of the Mississippi. I do recall seeing a post on Twitter (can’t remember who posted) but it was an analog for fall/winter with a similar + IOD. Fall = plenty of blocking...winter = zero blocking. So many variables go into analogs than just one signal...but interesting still.

IDK...that UK forecast looks odd. Even the look in the mid lats looks off if you believe its Arctic forecast is correct. General trough signal east of the Rockies with a highly anomalous blue ball over the entire arctic?

Pretty nice outflow boundary on radar moving through NOVA. .44" so far today. Too bad it's not winter....over performing anafront pasting

PMM? Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

37 for a low this morning...actually a little frost on the edges of the roof. Today looks stellar... maybe one last dinner on the campfire tonight.

SOI continues its negative run (after a few days of pos). MJO is meandering in 8/1. Once that Aleutian trough forms in the LR...it sure is an El Niño look across the N Hem.

Great to see the QBO continue to fall. Something certainly feels different...a different regime. The constant inability to maintain higher heights where we want them seems to be changing. Still gun shy from last season but feeling positive so far. This is a good look...hopefully we get something similar late November.

I do like the propensity for blocking in Can and Greenland in the LR. We dont seem to be losing this as we head into the meat of fall....a good sign imo. Both the GEFS and EC form a pretty potent Aleutian trough toward the end of the period. Both get to this end result in basically the manner....retro the trough off the west coast and merge with another just west of the Aleutians. Out there in the very LR but good to see some agreement...maybe an early start to things as other have alluded. Love cold Novembers...just hope it doesn't morph into a warm Dec.

The big ones are sniffed out early...

Another consistent theme with the SIPS has been the continuation of current dry conditions. I have no idea the accuracy of precip predictions and assume its probably similar to looking at 2m temps months in advance. Neither 2m temps or precip anoms look correct given that look at H5. But, 850 anoms look great.... Who knows? No doubt I would take my chances with that look... Wall to wall baby!

Managed to dodge all of Thursday’s storms but recorded .50” from yesterday’s soaker. 2.38” for the month so far.

Idk...outflow is approaching leesburg. Regardless of duration...it’s certainly producing svr conditions in eastern Washington co/west Frederick co.

Imo, that storm should be warned asap. Still. Heavy rain and very electric storm here and it only appears to be strengthening. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

Wow! Intense storm here. .6" in about 15 minutes and one very intense gust... Estimated at about 50mph+. Best storm of the season and not even warned. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk