poolz1

@frd Some positive signs amongst the muddy waters, imo. The propensity for HLB so far has been decent. Nothing sustained.....yet. Aleutian low seems to want to keep forming. No shortage of closed lows traversing the country. No red flags with the strat and if anything signs are positive. I know others have mentioned the MJO and the struggle models are having with it. I think once we get to mid Dec we will see the MJO stopping its flirt with phase 3 and circle back to 8/1. +IOD is coming down but SSTs still showing it plainly...it will have its say. Feeling pretty positive about late Dec and Jan....Though, I feel pretty positive every time before I play golf. Not so much once back to the clubhouse!

It has been a bit of a trend today for the D8-10 period. GFS increases blocking again at 18z and shoves the Canadian vortex south into the N plains. Looks to roll east from there. Lets kick the closed low out of Cali and attack that arctic high!

Latest HRRRRRRR has a nice burst of snow across MD pre-dawn tomorrow. Most models now show that slug of precip developing...

Was just going to say the same thing....heavier precip right on the MD line now. I may be too far west but you and folks NE could be in for a surprise. Elevation will def help...

06z euro came in much colder for the WAA precip. Major icing just over the MD line...some place in southern PA went from mid 30s 00z to upper 20s. NAM following along with slightly colder sfc temps than previous run.... Off to stuff myself...Happy Thanksgiving!

Looks like we may need to get through a few days to get any king of handle on what the LR will look like. A lot of spread on the EPS.... AO Check of the spread on the EPO...Could be +4 or could be -6....

18z gfs with the same strong closed ridge over the pole that both the 12z op and ens had. Moves in by day 7/8....looks more robust and has staying power this run. Would be a nice trend..

Couldnt agree more....I would be more than happy to do away with having to add caveats, grains of salt, etc...

Finally an op run that somewhat resembles the idea of blocking returning in the LR. Obviously, not to be taken literally but this is how the current period of blocking started to be advertised....

Basically from 900mb to the surface is above freezing. Would need to be a thump/convective or start to trend just a bit colder...3 or 4 degrees would do the trick for most.

yeah...would love to see what is predicted below 50 also. As it is, 50mb is on fire over the pole.....

Dec 5th coming in hot!

No matter how this euro run turns out it has certainly made moves toward today's trend. Ridging nosing across southern Can...

GFS has 3 sub 990 coastal storms during the forecast cycle....and a 4th that is just too far off shore to count. Lets keep this repetition going....

Darn close to a CMD pummeling...

My thoughts exactly...baby steps each run with that ridge near Hudson Bay. Keeps nosing east and holding longer each run...

Great analysis, showme....good morning coffee reading material. Interesting looping the GEFS and watching the low heights contract to the HL and then dissolve toward the end of the run and lower heights appear to be on their way back to the Mid Lats. Another positive result of that vortex potentially splitting is the ridging response in the Kara sea region. Muted now but combined with an epo ridge can send the AO downhill in a hurry and would be obviously a very cold signal....just in time for the holiday run up!

I was wondering if that band south of Harrisburg was snow or mix....def some wet flakes falling on I83 traffic cams. .81" overnight. 36f

I thought it was interesting that slp actually developes over ATL --> C NC --> VA capes to 977 over ACY. Not much difference in surface track from 12z just stronger reflection along the way. Shove that ull and the primary south and we could have slp forming in the northern gulf. Wishful thinking based on a happy hour run I guess....

Stronger 50/50 and west based block holding longer/stronger. Thats one heck of an ULL coming out of Cali...Fun to think of the possibilities I have to admit.

3 strong closed lows pass over/under us in 4 days....I'm sure the gfs has this figured out.

What are the chances we can get that ull under us next weekend?HH gives hope...as usual

As others have noted...the first 15 days of Dec '13 look pretty much identical to what is being advertised on the gefs in the LR. There is one exception IMO...of course this idea is all dependent on the GEFS being correct in LR. As Dec 13 rolled forward the WAR became a big player in our weather. Currently the GEFS does not have much of a WAR and what pos height it does have is more of a muted SE ridge that extends southward from Bermuda to the eastern Gulf. I would think this should provide more energy/juice with it's return flow and thus aiding the STJ and what would normally be relatively moisture starved systems and enhancing overrunning situations. Nothing to block the flow and create slow moving KUs but maybe something more than just quick hitting moisture starved systems we are used to with EPO driven patterns. So many ways for this pattern to morph as we move forward into the first half of Dec but, imo there are more options for a positive outcome than options for a shutout pattern to develop.

Welp, that was a wrong assessment of the sat. Nothing but clouds.

Looks like some clearing moving in from the west. Hoping it times it just right...