poolz1

06z Euro with another step in the right direction. Stronger vort with a slightly stronger low close to the S NJ coastline. Would be great to back our way into a minor event....maybe more than minor for places closer to coast...

I think you are probably correct....even neutral may have a better response. I have a lot to learn in this hobby but these types of small details are probably my weakest area. Need to work on my ball of knowledge!

The nice looking vort pass has been there for several runs now for the D4-5 timeframe. The euro did pop a weak surface low this run and some light precip resulted. Just curious what is keeping a stronger low at the surface from forming...normally I would be excited for a panel like this but models have been pretty adamant with really zero surface response. Is it the lack of separation between the SLP off the NE coast and the closed upper low sliding under us?

I hear you...and I appreciate your last few posts and the time/effort you put into the research. I dont disagree with anything you said and the Pac ridge is a dagger without help elsewhere but from my perspective it comes as no surprise if the MJO is going right into the warm phases. Not that I saw that happening...I actually thought we had a good chance at cold phases for Jan. I understand the MJO is not the be all and end all but the Pac is responding just as it did last year to the unfavorable tropical forcing. So, with that said the only thing I might have an issue with is describing the upcoming pattern as a base state....seems like this year has no base state, imo. The silver lining here is that I think we are primed for a rapid response if we can get into the cold phases...as you noted, with the low solar, fav QBO and already seeing bouts of HLB this season. With the warm phases hopefully doing their work to disrupt the PV I think we could see that Pac ridge move east around week 3/4. Going to be a rough couple of weeks...or more. But nothing new to a MA snow lover.

The ridging across N Can started showing up on ens a runs ago and ops now have it...seems to gaining some legs. Could open up a nice window as it forces the TPV under it. This GFS run the TPV turn on it's belly creating a nice broad trough. Who knows how it will eventually play out but could even block something that amplifies.

This is a 7 day mean for the first week of Jan...A notable feature throughout the GFS and the GEFS is the trough east of HI. Maybe this could send periodic shots of a west coast ridge even while the HLs are extremely hostile. With the active flow and cold very nearby maybe we can get something to dig under us at the right time. Hints of this on today's runs.

The only thing good about today's MJO plot is that the models have been pretty bad with the LR forecasted phase....Both the GEFS and EPS take it back to the warm phases or heading toward them after a brief visit with phase 7. It's been the most ambiguous season so far in terms of main drivers...besides the +IOD i guess. I have no idea where the LR is heading...neither do the models and neither do the mets I follow/read.

Not a bad look on the ensemble...workable and an improvement over 0z

Today's SOI is another negative at -8.46. Nothing earth shattering but if the gefs is correct this looks to continue and possibly some bigger neg values are on the way in the not to distant future. GEFS also indicating a phase 7/8 precip pattern in the PAC. If correct, we should see the LR start to hone in on a better PAC look I would think. Though, admittedly, I dont know how the IOD and the preip in the western IO will affect/mute this...if at all.

Ha! We are pretty much lockstep here lately. 14.8 here....coldest of the season as well.

Might be more of a banter post but since we dont have anything to track why not swing for the fences? Just thought this was interesting when I saw the 18z gfs storm at the end of the run. 18z GFS left, 12z EPS right.

No doubt...it's pretty liberating isn't it? We cut the cord a little over a year ago and havent looked back. We actually kept our local channels through Direct TV because they offered me 19.99/mo for a year. Then upped it to $60/mo....lol. That was the last straw and they wouldn't budge on it. Nothing makes me happier than to not send Direct TV another dime.

Agreed. Def a nino look. I thought the same thing when I saw the EPS temp profile in the LR. I'm ok with giving the Atl a go at it....we've seen what a straight Pac driven pattern can do for the past, what, 10 years?

Agreed. But having to punt the last 10 days of Dec (most likely) and now the prospect of punting the first week+ of Jan will ruffle feathers. I really dont doubt that we enter a favorable pac forcing regime but I was hoping that we would roll right past the warm phases. Still an option, like you said, LR MJO forecasts are very much subject to change.

Same here. Mod snow shower ongoing....nice fluffy dendrites with a good coating so far. Gusty WNW wind has it feeling like deep winter if only for 30 minutes or so. 29/21

32 with off and on flurries/light snow showers. Curious to see how this band sinking south of Pitt holds together. Snow squall warning just issued.

Battle lines are drawn between the GEFS and EPS. GEFS doubles down on a pretty good pattern and EPS doubles down on its anti -EPO stance. Probably a good time to step away for a few days and enjoy the holiday season....Not going to happen but its a good time to do it. lol

One of these 50/50 lows will break the mold I would think. It's the most stable feature on ops and ens. With that feature maybe we can get a trackable event during 8-12 days. I know others have mentioned this timeframe. Stick a stubborn high in se Can long enough in prime climo....even if its a meh pattern overall.

Took this around 1pm at the top of Gathland State Park...just west of Burkittsville. A little spooky looking up there...

1.7" measured a few minutes ago. Will probably be the final total....radar looks spotty and mixing is edging closer. A nice wintry scene outside tho....

If we can time the EPO ridge with a pushing scan ridge we could weaken the TPV and shove it pretty quickly into a favorable location. May lose the ATl for a period (maybe not completely) as the scan ridge develops and pushes but....short term pain.

1.5" Exact same obs as WVclimo.... Might be able to squeak out another .5"

Looking at traffic cams it seems that this may be the leading edge of flakes hitting the ground.

Fair enough...A lengthy stretch of bias cooler temps has indeed netted pertty much zero. Pretty meh as a whole. Give it 12 hours and hopefully we all have a nice 1-3" blanket of white!

@frd What's interesting is the pattern depicted by the GEFS toward the end of the run is what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 8. Yet, the EPS is not too far from the GEFS... just a few days behind schedule. Not what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 6. Regarding the strat, i dont know what to think the future might hold. One common theme this season has been for a more bottom up disruption and that has worked in our favor a few times. The SPV is forecasted to be strong and I think these strat guys focus on that. Using the LR Euro just as an example...the bottom up disruption looks to continue and that's all we need for snow and cold potential.