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Snow dog

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Posts posted by Snow dog

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    On 4/4/2019 at 2:20 PM, tramadoc said:


    It knows that there is zero chance of snow for us so it decides to go negative. By the time November rolls around it will either be positive or trending that way. It will then tease us by fooling the models to think that it will go negative during the winter of 2019/2020, but it will remain steadfastly positive through the entire winter only to negative once again in April 2020.

    What happened to this?  85 degree highs in May say no.... I'm afraid we're gonna fry this summer.....

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


    It knows that there is zero chance of snow for us so it decides to go negative. By the time November rolls around it will either be positive or trending that way. It will then tease us by fooling the models to think that it will go negative during the winter of 2019/2020, but it will remain steadfastly positive through the entire winter only to negative once again in April 2020.

    Well, at least it might mean a mild spring & summer.  I'd take that!

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, drscottsmith said:

    I don't post often as I am still learning (and realize everyone is thinking about Tues/Wed right now), but I believe next weekend is going to be a serious situation...starting Saturday 3/9 and extending into Sunday.  Not good on the heels of yesterday. 

    I am so f$%&ing  tired of this rain.  My God, we could go 3 weeks without a drop and it wouldn't bother me..

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

    Not sure if it's a trend. It seems like the difference between the 0z and 6z GFS is that the 6z develops a storm much earlier. Now if you're looking at yesterdays 18z, there was a shift north between that run and 0z. But it seems the 6z GFS has leaned towards the euro of developing a storm on day 8.  

     

     

    Any maps of the 6z?

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

    Yea it's been showing a southeast ridge...aka warm up for several days on ensembles and global operational models. The warm is coming I'd be willing to bet any amount it will verify

    Well, the only way I'm seeing snow is on my trip to Keystone CO in a week.  I guess I better enjoy the snow there, because it ain't happening here!

    • Like 1

    Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    On 1/8/2019 at 4:05 PM, NorthernUpstateSC said:

    Thanks Orangeburg...

    I wish all my gamecock buddies felt the way you do!! LOL....

    Good luck on the new storm threat thread you started today! Hopefully you will bring the "MOJO" again and, we can get something down your way this time for a change!!

    It was awesome!  Didn't care too much for SF, but Levi stadium was nice!  Can't wait for the Superdome next January!....

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

    Yeah, it looks like we're going to have about a 3 week break and recuperation period at least.  I need the sleep! lol. 

    Last week in December, looks like the -EPO is just trying to get going again.  Still needs work though.  Hopefully early January we can get the blocking back established, and we can get this nino show back on the road. 

    gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

    Would be nice to have a dry period too-I need about that much time to dry out.  We need no more rain!

    • Like 1

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, Lookout said:

    Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some  of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest.  That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get.  So I can't totally discount it.  Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. 

    I would expect i would see  some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally. 

     

     

     

     

    Really hard for me to believe this map-snowing in the midlands while I get rain??

    • Like 1

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, psuhoffman said:

    Just popped in to see what's up. I know the southern 1/2 of NC is losing out to mix/rain but what's gone wrong in the upstate or mountains? They looked in prime spot to get crushed. 

    'Wasted' an inch of moisture waiting on the CAD to kick in, then had too much mixing.  Climo was against us-take this setup in January, and we would be talking about this one for years..

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

    I have to say, as happy and as pleasantly surprised I am at the amount of snow we have gotten so far I really wish that everyone could have cashed in as well.  We have gotten blanked so much the last couple of years and it is such a crappy feeling so I hate it that our friends in the west, upstate and even the coastal plain haven’t gotten as much.   If I could share the snow I would!

    Its all good!  Happy to take my 2-3" with sleet on top.  I get the feeling we'll be doing this a few more times this winter.  If we could take this setup &storm a month from now,  I think I'd be looking out the window to 12" or so....

    2018 Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

    I am in need of a location to target tomorrow.  Im coming up from Atlanta and need to see good snow but not get stuck.  I have to be back to Atlanta by Sunday evening.  

    Any suggestions?  I have a truck but no 4x4 and an Explorer without 4x4.  Which vehicle and which location?

    With no 4x4, I wouldn't venture too far into NC.  Northern Greenville County might work-calling for 8-10" around TR in the county, and major roads there would allow you to get out fairly easily I would think...

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