Usually weenie caveats that I don't know what I'm talking about...
Unless there's a major shift one way or the other, I don't know that the globals will shed anymore light. People much smarter than me discussing the effects the convention down south is having , so yeah, what you said...short range models from here.
I'm in the Birds, Wiggum camp...1"-2" here, maybe some lollies of 3". But will gladly accept more.