JTA66

24 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Flurries here in Reading! 23°F.

Went to get the trach cans a little earlier and it smelled like snow. Meanwhile...

12Z guidance looking good so far (excepted that wacked out NAM).

12Z NAM has some snow showers tomorrow evening. We interested?

Better get my Commodore 64 over to Radio Shack and have it fixed so I can start tracking.

8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I read it on my laptop but now looking at it on my cell phone it's super long. My finger got tired scrolling. Thought it would never end...

It crashed my Commodore 64.

The offence looked a bit rusty but I guess that's to be expected since Hurts hasn't played in nearly a month. They did enough to win but need to step it up next week regardless of the opponent.

Unfortunately we don’t shovel potential.

But yes, overall I’m relatively optimistic we’ll be tracking again soon. 

Flakes, 28F/DP 20F

This can’t be good for our salt shortage…
 

https://6abc.com/post/cargo-ship-algoma-verity-runs-aground-delaware-river-philadelphia/15780571/

41 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

That would outperform Monday's event imby. Unfortunately it's the NAM at range.

Are we buying what the 12z NAM is selling??

Edit: Still only an inch or so, but I punted this a few days ago.

I don't know if it's a good match analog wise, but this winter is starting to remind me of 2003-04. We had the cold that year, just no significant storms. Lots of nickle & dime events that kept the ground white for long stretches.

I'm starting to think if we do get something (and others have already speculated on this), it's something that will pop up at a short lead time, say inside 84hrs. I dunno, just trying to be patient. 

5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Guns n' roses Patience I can jam not winter snowfall.... We just can't seem to get a good snowfall... Damn it!!!

Give me "Used to Love Her" 

I came into this winter expecting a ratter, so I'm happy with any snow we get. I remember January 2003 being very cold and dry -- maybe a clipper or two, but I remember driving to work each morning seeing the bare ground and thinking we're wasting all this cold. Then Feb hit.

Yeah I know, 2002-03 was a Nino winter. But as others have said, I think we can nickel & dime our way to average this year. Patience! 

21 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I think folks forget where we live....big storms are somewhat rare - except for the 1st 16 years of this century. I am convinced those snowy seasons made for many unrealistic expectations. That said if we get a general 2" to 4" event this weekend many will be near to above normal snowfall for the season....

This! People forget the "H" in HECS stands for "historic". There's a reason those storms are labeled historic...because they don't happen very often!! 

6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

All of a sudden, this looks pretty interesting! From LWX radar:

Yes, the radar is really blossoming. Most models had any late day precipitation south. Could be a little surprise ending this event.

8 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

Wild to see the ensembles be so different at 120 hours. Lotta ball game left to go.

EPS

 

 

GEFS 

EPS with a low in the lakes...seems about right.

Maybe an inch here, can still see the tops of the grass blades. Went with 2", my forecast was only off by 50% 

18 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

This needs to be framed for when it disappears 

You mean like in 6 hours?? 

A couple of Agnes's "dramatic" flakes starting to mix in 

Just got back from a Jebwalk, some of the heaviest rates of the day so far. About .50", 25F/DP 22F.

Light stuff coming down with a dusting on all surfaces, 24F/DP 19F.

1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Damn, the NY forum already created a topic. 

They’ll be up to 17 pages by tomorrow morning.

I’m all in! Good ratios, instant stickage…2” 

16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

This is the frame I wanted (48).  Definitely un-NAM'd itself.

People are rioting for bread, milk and eggs over that?? 
 

Weenie handbook rule #19: When the NAM cuts back on qpf, declare “convective feedback” and hug a model with higher totals.

Sticking with my 1-3” call imby, but might be closer to the 1” now.

Confluence is giving me a bad hair day