JTA66

Adding to Paul, the 1980's still featured big time arctic outbreaks. Only one KU in 1983, but plenty of our 3-5, 4-6 inch bread & butter storms with clippers thrown in. After 1987, we began our string of ratters into the early 90's.

At the risk of dating myself, I'm old enough to remember Winter Storm Warnings.

Dr. Joel Myers founded Accuwx, not Elliot. Elliot was the best met they ever had!

I've got some huge tarp in my backyard. Leaving it there for now...hoping it blows away into someone else's yard.

Other than that, we're gonna repeat next year!!

The models suck, I get that. But what if this was 25 years ago? Maybe they'd still be showing a MECS today and we'd be buckled up doing a weenie dance not realizing a huge rug pull was on the way. Seems things really started going down hill 12z Saturday...5+ days out. Maybe that's the "improvement". idk Just spit balling cause I'm bored and there's nothing to track.

The problem isn't that models go out past 120 hours. It's that weenies keep taking them literally at that range. We'll never improve modeling if we stop running them at longer leads and learn how to correct them for more accurate outcomes. If weenies keep getting excited about 240 hour MECS, that's on them.

This is where I'm at. To my limited weenie understanding of weather, it seems ENSO phases aren't making much of an impact these days. Nino/Nina doesn't matter -- W PAC warm pool keeps slamming the west coast with a strong jet. Then on the Atlantic side, we have a strong +AMO that links up our few attempts at a -NAO with the SER for a full latitude ridge. Unless and until there are wholesale changes in the global SSTA configuration, we'll be fighting an uphill battle. The good news is I don't know what I'm talking about, so maybe none of the above applies.

1.25" here...a KU but with rain

Montco 911 log lighting up with “electrical fires”.

Looks like my high for the day was 50F. Lots of junk and stuff fell from my trees as that initial gust front came through.

Winds rippin’ here, lights flickering

Almost looks like a bow echo heading across eastern PA

I know, I feel dirty for looking at. Is there a 12-step program for weenies who can’t stop looking at models even after they bailed??

I hate the NAM with the white hot heat of a thousand burning suns!

I was thinking about going George Costanza and doing the complete opposite… Start a generic storm thread first, then wait for a storm to pop up to discuss it, be it later this year, or next year, or the year after, or the year after that… At some point the Were Due Index has to pay off!

Including yesterday’s “event”, about 1” here so far.

My boss will be happy. I’ll get some work done this week instead of staring at models.

The GFS is dry, too. It’s a miss for us, but even where it’s a hit, it’s only @ 6” or so. A few more runs like this and it’ll be “what storm”?

Heaviest looks to miss drought guy’s backyard

Temps haven’t gone very far today, 34F at midnight, currently 37F.

Worst of all is a miss means we’re gonna have to deal with the wrath of drought guy!

Said I’d give it to 12z tomorrow, but no point dragging this out. So much for another “epic pattern”. Bring on spring!

If I’m misquoting Bluewave, my apologies, but the other day he mentioned the PAC jet extension and how it wouldn’t allow much ridging on the west coast. This is a very simple game. You hit the ball. You catch the ball. You need the ridge axis over Boise ID.

Anyone else watching this US vs Canada hockey thingy? Jeebus! Nine seconds in and 3 fight already! Old time hockey ftw!!