The problem is, the changeover is always underdone as to how far north it goes. I have seen plenty of systems where up till a day out we were supposed to be snow here, and even the day we were supposed to be the mix like...and the sleet/zr line made it all the way up to I-80. I was at SRU during the Valentine’s Day storm I thing in the mid 00’s and even Pittsburgh was supposed to be all snow but we mixed all the way up to there.
If that is what is showing now, I feel really pessimistic about a big snow event. I always push the mix line about 50 miles north.