slow poke

We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year.

1”-2” from industrial pollution/smoke stacks? That’s pretty cool actually, never herd of that before.

Will be interesting to see if the pattern actually turns colder in February or not. I remember reading a month or so ago that a lot of people thought the cold was coming right after the holidays/early January but we see how that worked out. Now many of them same people are saying late January/early February. Maybe some of those people are snow shovel or snow blower salesman’s that keep calling for the cold that never seems to show up on time and when it does it seems to not hang around long at all. I’m not sure who I feel worse for though, the people that spend hours and hours studying models and making long range weather projections that very very rarely come true or those of us that actually read what they put out and think it will happen. I know you and I are very similar when it comes to long range projections in that after about a week it’s basically 50/50 if they’ll get it correct but I’ll read them anyway a lot of times even though I know they will probably be wrong. If and when the cold shows up in February the days will be getting longer, the sun angle will be a factor and Spring/March will be only weeks out.

We have some light flurries falling also here in Michigan’s thumb thanks to a north east wind and Lake Huron. Not showing up on the radar here like out you’re guys way though.

The lack of snow out your way is pretty remarkable, I would think it will swing the other way eventually. Looking at the NWS out of Gaylord winter highlights the past 5 years it’s pretty easy to see it’s been a warm stretch. Winter of 15/16 was record warm, 16/17 was top 10 warm, 17/18 and 18/19 were about average and 19/20 was again top 10 warm. The first half of this 20/21 winter has started out again with top 10 warmth. Not sure how this winter will end up but it’s going to have a have a hard time ending up below average at this point.

While on the treadmill a few minutes ago I was watching TWC like I normally do and they had a blip basically regurgitating what the article said about warming winters since the 1970’s in the Great Lake region. We all know where they stand as far as Global warming so I’m not going try to explain what they said in detail but they are saying our winters have warmed as much as 5 degrees. Any idea where they are getting them numbers at? They also said the ski season could be half of the length it currently is in northern Michigan. Again, I’m not agreeing or disagreeing with them, just curious where they get their data from.

Great find, I’ve never seen that before, that’s pretty cool. Is that including this winter so far also? So just looking back at the past 10 years it looks like Detroit has had 7 years warmer then average and 3 below with APN and MQT having 6 above with 4 below. Snowfall wise it looks to me Detroit has had 6 out of the past 10 years with below normal snowfall, that correct? APN looks like they have had 7 below, 2 above and 1 average with MQT having 6 below, 2 above and 2 average. As far as this winter so far we’ve had a bunch of snow up at Higgins compared to most places. Even down home here we’ve had quite a bit of snow actually. I’ve plowed my driveway 4 times already including yesterday when we got home from up north. No big storms down here like we’re had up north but 4 or 5 grass covering snowfalls so far. Up north has been a different story, few weekends back we got 9-10” on day and this past Friday night we got 7” in a little over 3 hours up there. We got over a foot of fresh snow while we were up there last week.

I believe it was said somewhere in this forum recently the “Detroit” area is currently in its warmest 5 year stretch when combining them. Not sure if that’s talking about just winter or the whole year though. I’m thinking after how this winter has started out it might be 6th? I’m not a stat guy but I can tell you from someone who has owned a home in northern Michigan on a large lake for 20 years now and spends most weekends and holidays there that the winters have changed. The lake ice is taking longer to get safe, on average it was the first couple weeks of January, lately it’s been late January even early February. Snowfall average has slowly been declining also according to the NWS out of Gaylord.

https://www.freep.com/in-depth/news/local/michigan/2021/01/03/michigan-winter-festivals-climate-change/3954384001/ I saw this posted on another site, good example of how Michigan winters are changing and how it’s effecting some areas and sports in the state.

This storm really overachieved up here in my area in northern lower Michigan this evening, we’ve picked up 7” since it started around 6:00. Crazy heavy snow for few hours, just light snow falling now though. Local point n click still have us at 1”! How in the heck can they be this far off? Just looking at the radar and what was moving our way pretty much anyone could have seen we would have got more then 1”. Going to make for some great snowmobiling tomorrow!

Snow depth looks “about” the same everywhere between exit 244 and 280 except around Waters where it looks a little deeper, maybe by a inch or two. Really surprised how little snow there is in Gaylord, Grayling actually seems to have a little more at this time. As we were driving we were talking about the old n days during the week between Christmas and new year’s up around Gaylord and how crazy it used to be with snowmobilers, now it’s so different. Lack of snow and lack of new people getting into the sport is really killing it from a numbers stand point.

That same band gave us a couple inches late last night also. It was really coming down for a while. We probably have 8” or so now on the ground now here at Higgins, the lake effect fluff settles down fast. The snowmobiling was decent yesterday and should only get better as the week goes on. I’m heading up to Gaylord in a bit to Home Depot actually, I’m curious to see the difference in snow depth in places in that 30 miles.

Beautiful Christmas Day in the thumb of Michigan today! Been snowing all day, pretty hard the past few hours actually. Probably around 4”-5” on the ground and still coming down. Kids are out riding snowmobiles playing and enjoying it before it gets to dark. Merry Christmas everyone!

Awesome pictures Josh, the fresh snow really helps makes them look good. Side note this December looks and feels way different then last year to me. Last year we were mountain biking December 23rd, this year it’s been chilly and we’ve had enough snow to make it definitely feel like December to me. I saw 17 degrees this morning and some really think freezing fog also. Last weekend while up north it was a awesome winter weekend also.

Wow, that’s pretty crazy you guys only have that much on the ground right now, very unusual for sure. At least you know it’s not if but when the snow will start to pile up and get deep up there. You’ll probably still be below average come the 1st of the year but I would bet you guys will have a decent snowpack building by then. Down here in northern lower we have a decent start snow wise after this weekends storm but it’s anyone’s guess if it will continue building or be gone by new year’s. It was snowing out pretty good a bit ago here at Higgins, some lake effect, saying another 1-2” today but more to the north and west of us.

That makes more since, I miss read that, thanks MI storm.....

Have you seen this snow freak? This was a chart from Bill Deeder’s, I’m sure I spelled his name wrong, winter forecast. It says 9 of the past 10 have been warmer then normal for Detroit. I know you’re really good with stats and was wondering is that what you’re seeing also? If so that’s pretty crazy. I know snowfall hasn’t really been affected by the warmth but man that’s a pretty disturbing trend that’s going on for the Detroit area.

It was this post snow freak, I probably miss understood it but I think it says we are currently in a 5 year stretch of warm winters when averaging them out.

Couldn’t agree with you more, we were out there two summers back, words can’t describe how beautiful that mountain is. We went to the ranger station which I think is one of the snowiest locations in the lower 48, I couldn’t imagine the view if we were to have hiked up a couple 1000 feet. I’ve been lucky enough to spend a lot of time out west in the mountains the past 25 years or so during all 4 seasons and to me, and my family, Mt Rainier was probably our favorite!

I had thought I had seen someone say the last 5 winters in Detroit are the warmest when combined or something like that in recorded history or something like that, I could definitely have this wrong though. Like we’ve all said, snow is only a part of what makes up a winter, cold air is a part of that also and I can definitely see where people could have a legitimate grip about the lack of cold during the past few winters. I was talking to one of my uncles who’s a ice fisherman that lives on Anchor Bay last week about the lack of “safe” ice the past two winters. He thought there was maybe only 2 weeks combined between the past two winters where you could go out safely on good ice. On average you should be able to get out on that ice by mid January through early March, 8 weeks or so per winter. Again every winter is different but the “average “ would probably be about 8 weeks per winter. People upset we don’t have a foot of snow on the ground from December 1st to March 15th south of the 45th Parallel would be equivalent to me complaining all the golf courses in lower Michigan aren’t all open year round, it’s just silly I feel. There’s definitely glass are 1/2 full and glass are 1/2 empty people in this forum, we pretty much know where we all are at in that spectrum and to me that’s what helps make this interesting to read no matter how ridiculous someone’s opinion is lol.

Wow that’s kinda crazy, I just got back home about a hour ago from Boyne Falls, home of Boyne Mt ski resort, there not even close to opening up, they have “some” snow blown on a couple runs but nowhere close to looking like winter up there like the pictures you shared. They normally try to be open for thanksgiving but not this season, actually the only snow I saw today on my trip up and back was down here at home in northern St Clair county. Very strange start to the winter season up north again this year.

I was wondering how you been up there Bo, hadn’t seen you post anything in a while. Hopefully the UP and northern lower will start to get some cold air in the next couple weeks, otherwise it could be a bleak holiday season up there for tourists. But I did hear they had a crazy busy summer season so maybe they’ve had enough of us trolls for a little while. We booked some hotel rooms up across the UP for our annual snowmobile across the UP trip and we had one tell us if things don’t change we’ll have to stay somewhere else because the local hospital was using their rooms for overflow covid patients.

Great pictures as usual snow freak, the snow definitely helps getting into the holiday spirit!

This was the 3rd grass covering, or really close to covering, snowfall this season at my location, first time was November 1st, second time was November 22nd and now this storm. For being as warm as it’s been this November it’s still managed to snow somehow.

I plowed my driveway this morning for the first time this season, definitely looks wintery out there. Probably have 3” or so on the ground now but the 1” or so that fell yesterday morning melted before it switched back yesterday evening. The storm two day total was probably closer to 4”-4.5” which was pretty much what the Detroit nws was calling for, in my opinion they did a pretty good job with this storm.