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schoeppeya

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Everything posted by schoeppeya

  1. schoeppeya
    True kiss of death on a return to colder pattern is the cold air in Canada getting washed out, dont see any signs as of now.
  2. schoeppeya
    Not possible, I was told it was a foregone conclusion that the PV was going to be strong by mid month and we were going to torch.
  3. schoeppeya
    I must have missed where somebody did that?
  4. schoeppeya
    Acting like a forecast for 2+ weeks into the future is a foregone conclusion is insane. Think its fair to post a forecast that might show things trending differently than they are being shown now.
  5. schoeppeya
    Was definitely low ratio, fine sand snow here as well.
  6. schoeppeya
    Yeah the issue with that is at 10:1 that would have still had me at .43"qpf and I have a quarter of that.
  7. schoeppeya
    I have a screenshot of the most recent HRRR run at 7 this morning still showing 9” for Tulsa and I have MAYBE 1” on the ground at my house. As frustrating as it is for someone who loves big weather events, it’s one of the reasons I love it so much. As much as people want to think we have it figured out, there’s always reminders like this that Mother Nature will still do what she wants. .
  8. schoeppeya
    Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning. .
  9. schoeppeya
    Finally moderate to heavy snow here, hopefully can squeeze a couple inches out of it.
  10. schoeppeya
    Ill own it, and it won't be the first time its felt like I have singlehandedly jinxed a big event
  11. schoeppeya
    Absolutely classic that we immediately started trending away from the high end solutions after this post
  12. schoeppeya
    The CAMS are still very insistent that we get to 3-5" in Tulsa so guess we will see... I'd feel pretty good if I was in NWA/SW Mo still
  13. schoeppeya
    We aren't even close to an inch yet in Tulsa, at this point I don't know if we are going to get enough to even take the kids sledding.
  14. schoeppeya
    HRRR has it filling in very quickly over the next hour or two
  15. schoeppeya
    Same. I don't want to jump the gun on calling a bust but im starting to feel like we would be lucky to get 6" in Tulsa. We are still getting freezing rain on the south side of town so still pretty ugly regardless.
  16. schoeppeya
    Pretty unbelievable, I'm in Bixby and we have been getting freezing rain for a few hours and you couldn't pay me enough money to get out on the roads right now.
  17. schoeppeya
    I dont know that moods soured but the short term trends arent QUITE as favorable as after the 18z suite
  18. schoeppeya
    Notable reduction in QPF on a lot of the 0z models right after the increase on the 18z runs
  19. schoeppeya
    I think you could draw a rough oval from independence to tulsa to mountain home to springfield to pittsburg and say anyone inside that could is looking at 8-12"+ depending on where the heaviest bands verify.
  20. schoeppeya
    I'm finally letting myself buy in now that we are 12ish hours from the start and trends are increasing totals if anything. Looking like it's going to be the biggest snow since Feb 2011 followed by deep, deep cold. Hope everybody gets the goods and enjoys this once in every 15- or 20-year type event.
  21. schoeppeya
    NAM came south again too. NEOK bullseye
  22. schoeppeya
    Doubled QPF/snowfall totals for places just north of Tulsa like Bville, loving the trend.
  23. schoeppeya
    Definitely a step towards the Icon/Canadian. Still about ten degrees warmer which seems like a significant difference at this range.
  24. schoeppeya
    GFS an outlier on temps at this point with highs 10ish degrees higher for Tulsa on Wednesday and Thursday than the other models .
  25. schoeppeya
    It’s been TERRIBLE this year outside of 24 hours and even then, still not good. .
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