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schoeppeya

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Everything posted by schoeppeya

  1. schoeppeya
    Im a natural gas trader, you should look at the Feb contract. Went from being dangerously close to slipping below 3 dollars to rolling off in the mid 7's, feb was a wild ride.
  2. schoeppeya
    Pretty incredible PV split the GFS is trying to show:
  3. schoeppeya
    That's exactly the response I expected from somebody who results to insults and name-calling every time somebody disagrees with them. For the sake of not derailing anything I will leave you alone, but after you've been horrifically wrong on every "forecast" you've had for this winter, I would suggest a little situational awareness and a little more humility in your approach, for those of us just trying to learn from the "smart" people it makes the thread really hard to read.
  4. schoeppeya
    To start winter? I think he posted like two weeks ago we were having a classic front-loaded winter just before a massive winter storm materialized.
  5. schoeppeya
    Yeah also thinking the 500 mb pattern on the ensembles suggests more coast to coast cold as opposed to the west torching and the east way bn. Should be a fun period.
  6. schoeppeya
    Where'd @snowman19 disappear to
  7. schoeppeya
    Round 2 performed here, I measured 8.5 in my yard and I would bet 7 inches of that came last night. Always will be the what could have been if round one hadn't been a dud and we hadnt sleeted most of the afternoon yesterday but 8.5" is a huge storm here and I will take it.
  8. schoeppeya
    Looking around at current storm reports it does look like a lot of areas performed within expectations for round 1 with a lot of 5-6" reports both north and south of Tulsa... just specifically my area (Jenks/Bixby) up 44 into missouri are the low end spots with a lot of 2 inch reports.
  9. schoeppeya
    Dry air pockets everywhere and the precip shield back into Texas is decreasing in coverage and intensity not increasing. Becoming less and less optimistic that wave 2 is going to perform let alone over perform.
  10. schoeppeya
    Yeah that image the HRRR is showing at max .5 inch an hour rates for a couple hours... never truly get up into snow+ on the HRRR for all of round 2. The 3k nam and GFS still show hope so we will see, im leaning dry air wins at this point. ETA: I still dont think the HRRR is initializing the current convection well, maybe something to note. 3k nam was way closer to actual radar.
  11. schoeppeya
    HRRR is starting to show dry air issues for most the region for round 2 tonight... I know the fat lady hasnt sung yet but starting to look like an absolutely epic bust.
  12. schoeppeya
    Thats the precip area I was referencing, pretty impressive on radar
  13. schoeppeya
    Sitting about 2" in south tulsa, I think its going to take a significant overperformance in round 2 to get us to the double digit mark but the radar over sw oklahoma and texas is certainly more impressive than what the HRRR has modeled so I have hope.
  14. schoeppeya
    Its on an island and getting to a range where the cams start having more weight... its really been pretty terrible with this system since pretty early on.
  15. schoeppeya
    All of the 0z suite coming in with higher totals this evening as we are less than 24 hours from the show starting... really thinking 12-20" is possible in Tulsa.
  16. schoeppeya
    We have had so many of these storms bust throughout the years I am trying to temper my excitement but cant lie, models holding serve and even increasing amounts at 48 hours with the new data is starting to make me believe 12-18 inches is possible in Tulsa.
  17. schoeppeya
    You know its possible to disagree with somebody without being a complete d*ck right?
  18. schoeppeya
    True kiss of death on a return to colder pattern is the cold air in Canada getting washed out, dont see any signs as of now.
  19. schoeppeya
    Not possible, I was told it was a foregone conclusion that the PV was going to be strong by mid month and we were going to torch.
  20. schoeppeya
    I must have missed where somebody did that?
  21. schoeppeya
    Acting like a forecast for 2+ weeks into the future is a foregone conclusion is insane. Think its fair to post a forecast that might show things trending differently than they are being shown now.
  22. schoeppeya
    Was definitely low ratio, fine sand snow here as well.
  23. schoeppeya
    Yeah the issue with that is at 10:1 that would have still had me at .43"qpf and I have a quarter of that.
  24. schoeppeya
    I have a screenshot of the most recent HRRR run at 7 this morning still showing 9” for Tulsa and I have MAYBE 1” on the ground at my house. As frustrating as it is for someone who loves big weather events, it’s one of the reasons I love it so much. As much as people want to think we have it figured out, there’s always reminders like this that Mother Nature will still do what she wants. .
  25. schoeppeya
    Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning. .
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