schoeppeya

Im a natural gas trader, you should look at the Feb contract. Went from being dangerously close to slipping below 3 dollars to rolling off in the mid 7's, feb was a wild ride.

Pretty incredible PV split the GFS is trying to show:

That's exactly the response I expected from somebody who results to insults and name-calling every time somebody disagrees with them. For the sake of not derailing anything I will leave you alone, but after you've been horrifically wrong on every "forecast" you've had for this winter, I would suggest a little situational awareness and a little more humility in your approach, for those of us just trying to learn from the "smart" people it makes the thread really hard to read.

To start winter? I think he posted like two weeks ago we were having a classic front-loaded winter just before a massive winter storm materialized.

Yeah also thinking the 500 mb pattern on the ensembles suggests more coast to coast cold as opposed to the west torching and the east way bn. Should be a fun period.

Where'd @snowman19 disappear to

Round 2 performed here, I measured 8.5 in my yard and I would bet 7 inches of that came last night. Always will be the what could have been if round one hadn't been a dud and we hadnt sleeted most of the afternoon yesterday but 8.5" is a huge storm here and I will take it.

Looking around at current storm reports it does look like a lot of areas performed within expectations for round 1 with a lot of 5-6" reports both north and south of Tulsa... just specifically my area (Jenks/Bixby) up 44 into missouri are the low end spots with a lot of 2 inch reports.

Dry air pockets everywhere and the precip shield back into Texas is decreasing in coverage and intensity not increasing. Becoming less and less optimistic that wave 2 is going to perform let alone over perform.

Yeah that image the HRRR is showing at max .5 inch an hour rates for a couple hours... never truly get up into snow+ on the HRRR for all of round 2. The 3k nam and GFS still show hope so we will see, im leaning dry air wins at this point. ETA: I still dont think the HRRR is initializing the current convection well, maybe something to note. 3k nam was way closer to actual radar.

HRRR is starting to show dry air issues for most the region for round 2 tonight... I know the fat lady hasnt sung yet but starting to look like an absolutely epic bust.

Thats the precip area I was referencing, pretty impressive on radar

Sitting about 2" in south tulsa, I think its going to take a significant overperformance in round 2 to get us to the double digit mark but the radar over sw oklahoma and texas is certainly more impressive than what the HRRR has modeled so I have hope.

Its on an island and getting to a range where the cams start having more weight... its really been pretty terrible with this system since pretty early on.

All of the 0z suite coming in with higher totals this evening as we are less than 24 hours from the show starting... really thinking 12-20" is possible in Tulsa.