Winter Wizard

QPF cutoff looks eerily similar to Boxing Day

Have to think this is coming east some with the SW over Texas noticeably slower and more strung out. 

10 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Fast jet is fast.

That's about as classic as it gets for a rapidly strengthening mid-latitude cyclone. Wouldn't sweat precipitation type issues at this stage. 

Final total here in West Somerville is 8.3”. First of hopefully many snowstorms for me in New England! Congrats to everyone on an overperformer. 

6.5" in West Somerville (Davis). Must have just missed the best banding. 

I don't understand the complaints. That looks like an ideal track for a moderate snowstorm for much of SNE and ENE. 

Annapolis easily pushing 6” according to my friend. 

Congrats everyone, love seeing DC south and east get clocked for once! Though I am lowkey jealous this happened as soon as I moved away. 

16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM.

Those clown maps are going to be inflated, especially when you consider the warm soil temperatures. Should there be wobbles north/south you can adjust that map accordingly. 

Good morning everyone, here are my thoughts on the storm. 
 

Textbook

Here is my first stab at the forecast. 

0.5" in Somerville. We will rebuild. 

About as good of a trend as you like to see over the past 24 hours. Legit or is the NAM off its rocker?

Pretty clear to see why GFS has trended toward the Euro/CMC: stronger confluence to the north in each successive run squashes the system. Given the +EPO/-PNA and the disappearance of Atlantic blocking, it'll be in and out in a hurry. Doesn't mean the MA can't thread the needle, but a completely sheared out mess is very much on the table.

We have flakes in Cambridge 

GFS looking stronger and farther S with the northern stream vort at hour 96. Could be interesting. 

Pretty decent shift north. Not far off from being interesting all the way to SNE but need that vort to dig a little more and pop sooner. 

GFS shifts well north with the vort, so it's a congrats Mount Washington. 

Going to be a pretty messy, volatile forecast with a pattern that supports multiple weak waves over the coming days. Have to think the Euro is a bit too amplified, but key difference I see between the models is greater separation between the Friday-Saturday wave and the early week wave. If that first system lingers, would likely keep it south and sheared apart like what the GFS showed. On the other hand, a more amplified system usually trends north. 

And this is still a few hours before high tide and the heaviest rain bands. Extremely concerning. 

Worst natural disaster in the Northeast since Sandy 

Wow can’t believe the photos I’m seeing today from my old stomping grounds of Annapolis. Just received word that my friends still in the area and my old apartment are safe so big sigh of relief. Hope everyone is safe!

Ground truth probably confirms the EF2 rating. 

Still some discontinuity between the low-level and mid-level centers this morning, but Henri should strengthen a decent amount today as it moves into a low shear environment. 

Some similarities to the upcoming pattern though the northerly tracks into New England are totally unprecedented. 

34 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Any experience with Boston, or first time? Do let us know if you have any questions or need suggestions.

Been here quite a few times and have family in Natick. Decently familiar with the area but any suggestions are greatly appreciated.