Winter Wizard

This is where the 495 crew should clean up. Mix line seems to be pretty much overheard in Somerville.

Getting much fattier flakes now. 

Got around 6" in Somerville, MA. Still coming down hard. 

Heavy snow Somerville, MA

Going with this as my stab at the forecast. Could see shifts either way, but hedging toward the warmer solutions for coastal SNE. 

Synoptically the NAM did come closer in line with other guidance in showing a quicker decaying primary and secondary development at 40N. It’s still tenuous for areas on the fringe but probably fair to shift a 6”+ range south a bit with medium-high confidence. 

The NAM is still a bit of an outlier, but is an entirely plausible scenario where the primary low chugs way ahead into NY state while any secondary low develops far too late to be meaningful. 

It's wild reading some of these complaints after living through a bunch ratters of winters in the Mid-Atlantic. 

23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Euro 10:1 snow map seems extremely logical for this type of event. 

I’m skeptical of anything more than isolated double digit totals but a widespread swath of 6”+ in New England seems logical. My initial hunch is it’s overdone from the Pike south and you shift it north a bit, more like a sloppy few inches for BOS. Going to be a very sharp southern gradient. 

It's here and it's legit 

34.8" in West Somerville, MA

Around 4.5” in Somerville

Measured a bit over 2” in Somerville. Uncanny how every storm this season turns into a South Shore jackpot. 

2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

its wild here by powerhouse, about to take a walk 

You’re right up the road from me. How much do you have? 

I have no idea how much we have but caught the edge of the yellow band and it’s incredible. Visibility 100 feet max and piling up quickly. 

The deathband is here and it’s glorious 

Conditions have deteriorated rapidly in the last hour here in Somerville, pixie dust flakes.

Can’t wait for that Plymouth band to pivot here.

Around 2” so far in Somerville. Pretty unimpressive snow growth but winds are picking up. Should be a much different story in a few hours. 

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Winter hill gang Somerville? Or is that some weird town in the middle of nowhere

Davis 

Anyone have an idea how my area (West Somerville) fared in 2013 and 2015? 

Hedging with this forecast for now. 

That is a crusha

12 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This chart tells all.  Look at the GFS score past the 23rd.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/images/acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.png

And notice also how the Euro is consistently king. Very much goes against the narrative some people are pushing on this forum. 

Have to think NAM will nudge back to the west based on NS/SS interaction at hour 42. 
 

Wow I can’t recall ever seeing an NWS office pull the trigger on a forecast that early.