hudsonvalley21

Yup. Just extended that warning to the east/southeast

FYI That line east of KBGM has a tor warning. You had interest in that line earlier. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NYC025-182300- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260718T2300Z/ Delaware NY- 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY... At 636 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Harvard, or near Walton, moving east at 40 mph.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Dew pt. Up to 70 now here at KSWF. Was at 66 at 12z

SPC AC 181219 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts will be the primary threat, but a few tornadoes are possible, including perhaps a strong tornado. ...OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast over the Upper Great Lakes towards the Northeast during the period. The primary upper vorticity max will rotate through the base of the larger-scale trough and through the St. Lawrence Valley, before an upstream disturbance west of James Bay this morning pivots southeast and reaches Maine/eastern Quebec by early Sunday. Surface analysis this morning places a 1004-mb low north of Georgian Bay and a cold front extending west-southwestward into northern IA. An attendant warm front arching southeastward through the Lower Great Lakes and draped over the Mid-Atlantic states will advance northward as the cyclone develops east towards northern Maine by late evening. Concurrently, the cold front will push southeast across much of Great Lakes into the OH Valley. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass was sampled this morning by 12 UTC raobs and surface observations (i.e., upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints). A few thunderstorm clusters this morning have developed near the warm frontal zone from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic states. The early day storm activity will likely be limited in storm vigor, due in part to initially widespread cloud cover inhibiting strong heating in the areas downstream over parts of PA/NY. Gradual dissipation of clouds and heating coupled with the northeastward advancement of the warm sector will promote a broad area to become moderately to strongly unstable later today (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. A belt of westerly 30-45 kt 700-mb flow from northern VA into the Northeast will aid in storm organization and severe potential this afternoon and evening. Models differ substantially regarding evolution/timing of possible bands of storms and clusters with embedded cells. Regardless of specific details, it seems plausible several multicellular bands of storms will develop during peak heating and organize as these bands move east. Some of the more intense cells will potentially become supercellular posing an all-hazards severe risk. Have largely unchanged the previous outlook given the inherent thunderstorm evolution-based uncertainties. Potentially widespread damaging gusts [50-60 mph, locally stronger (55-70 mph) perhaps paralleling the I-95 corridor from Chesapeake Bay into southern New England]. A few tornadoes are possible both from linear and cellular storm structures given some low-level hodograph enlargement and moist low levels.

We’ll have to see after the first batch gets thru around 1 pm or so and see how much clearing and destabilization occurs for the 2nd line later. The less action in the first line will help out for stronger action later. Hopefully the Mesoscale models pick up on the action in a few hours. So it’s wait and see for a little bit. SPC will have an update in a few minutes, we’ll see their thoughts.

Definitely cut the temps here, currently 83 with the smoke visibility about 3 miles

5.24” will do it here. Time to drain some water out of the pool.

Wow that sucks. I’m lucky here in New Windsor having power. Just broke the 5” reading with 5.03” currently.

Raining here too, up to 4.94”. Current radar to our south is filling in again

Thanks for the link. Current radar is validating the discussion in our area. Up to 4.48” since 8pm last night.

Impressive, the first round last night really made this happen.

3.85” as of 1pm for the event total so far from 8pm last night. Currently light rain falling.

3.85” as of 1pm for the event total so far from 8pm last night. Currently light rain falling.