Wxoutlooksblog

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I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip.

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Little if any prolonged warmth or heat prior to May 10th. Yes a day or two of 70s to perhaps near 80 the 29th-30th of April but the upper low over the nw Atlantic continues to dominate into mid May possibly beyond.

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's in the 60s and sunny aka normal April weather.

It's not like it's a dreary multi day onshore flow event with temps in the 40s and 50s. 

The weather is beautiful and will be in the 70s soon.

I think it may be in the 80s to near 90 next Monday. We'll see what if any backdoor activity there is and how westerly our surface winds are. If the winds are more southerly, we'll say in the lower 80s. If we see a b-door front Sunday night we'll stay in the 60s/70s.

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We are still in a wet pattern with an upper low in the northwestern Atlantic dominating. We've had computer model runs suggesting that this pattern might end or shift northward but thus far they've all been wrong. The best we can do in this type of pattern is an isolated day here and there around 80 perhaps but mostly 70s with quite a few days still only in the upper 50s and 60s.

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Still there. 

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This is the problem and it was also the problem a year ago. We'll see if that upper low ever relinquishes its domination over the weather in the northeast this summer. Last year it really didn't. And the ridge building is in the Plains States. Plains and western mid west.

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20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 had 1 90 degree day in May so it really doesn't take a big early season heatwave to have a record hot summer.

 

I did not say it took that. And I also stated there were two out of 11 30+ 90+ day summers without any heat prior to June. 

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22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

I'm not. I'm not saying we won't but I am anything but very confident about it.

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20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What did we have in 1980?

I know that was a very hot summer, but I thought the heat began in late June.

In 1980 you had two 90+ days in May.

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15 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

There's many more than 2 years that had 30 plus 90 degree days without a 90 degree day in April. I'd say extending that to April or May is really a stretch as you're over extending the statistic at that point.

 

Edit: by that I mean you really only have a handful of total 30 plus 90 days in recorded history so it's hard to make a conclusion that since only 2 didn't have a 90 degree day in Apr or May that the summer wouldn't have 30 plus 90 degree days.

It seems there's little statistical significance at that point. And it would only take 1 day in Apr OR May of 90 plus to blow any correlation out of the water. 

There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will.

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I often refer to the 90+ Central Park page.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf

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14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

What does "some heat" mean though?

Anomaly wise? 80 plus? And how long? Can we see the data set please? I'd imagine there's more to the story.

A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. 

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1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

And now from 00Z run to 12Z run night and day differences in this crappy GFS model. Who knows which is correct? Too early to say but 12Z GFS signaling a pattern change on tax day and we could be well into the 80s and maybe higher.

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Meanwhile the Euro having onshore winds would be 10-15 degrees cooler.

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And now from 00Z run to 12Z run night and day differences in this crappy GFS model. Who knows which is correct? Too early to say but 12Z GFS signaling a pattern change on tax day and we could be well into the 80s and maybe higher.

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7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary  hot summer.

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1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. 

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1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yea.. its April. I struggle to find a correlation between OP Gfs in early April and the entire summer.

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary  hot summer.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

You have called for a cool summer every summer for the past 5 years and it’s never been correct. I believe one summer you even said 0 90 degree days or something. You must hate the heat or something lol

It's not an official call. Just saying that if the current pattern didn't altogether almost reverse, it could happen. And I'm sure I said that the other few times as well. It is difficult at this time to imagine how this pattern changes because of its persistence but persistent patterns have changed in other years so it's possible.

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48 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

followed by another quake? lets go!

Looks like a basically cool/wet pattern into the first part of May with an isolated day here or there up around 70.

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Again GFS and GEFS mapping out the way to a cool wet summer and if weather systems are situated anything like this we won't be seeing any hurricanes near the east coast. It's early so things could change but idea of an upper low over the northeast and northwest Atlantic is awfully persistent. I gotta hope these maps are as bogus as all the heat the model advertised last August.

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Looking at the maps tonight I'm not really seeing much of any change in the weather we've been having for the last 5 weeks over the next 2 weeks. In fact the latest model guidance gives one the feeling that a cool stormy pattern could last another 2-4 weeks as GEFS tends to feature some ridging out west. Looks like last year or maybe even a little worse.

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7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I haven't seen the Euro AIFS be remotely correct yet. It's all fantasy.

I don't entirely agree. How about this situation on the CMC at 120 hours which just introduced snow on its maps for nearby to our north and west. It's not fantasy that there are some colder air masses than normal dropping in from Canada which can complicate precip type issues with an ideal storm track and therefore model  runs will occasionally hit on the perfect set up. Our skill set must differentiate between genuine threats and outright mistakes in modeling.

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1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

It almost thundered...

It has come close. Hopefully next time.

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54 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I'd venture quite a few of those years had either N or BN precipitation and the lack of snow may have been more a function of that.

It's more evident that the recent snow drought is a function of well AN temperatures.

I don't have the data to back this so it's just speculation but it's clear that the scorched earth is a huge implication in recent history.

I think they are both valid points. There were more seasons with close to normal or below normal precipitation back then and the ocean temperatures were generally cooler. With climate change we are getting generally stronger storms with more moisture. 1979-1993 it was rare you'd see a model ever crank out 2.00" precip during an event. Now it's a regular thing.

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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

huh ? today is the only day over 60 for at least the next week

ZFP from KOKX (cod.edu)

Yes let's not get ahead of ourselves. We have some warm to very warm weather ahead of us but also a lot of damp at least partially rainy days with temperatures in the 40s. We'll take the warmth when it comes.

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