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Wxoutlooksblog

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Posts posted by Wxoutlooksblog

    March 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

    And it wasn't even that warm. Plus no rain either.  Just the power of the sun

    The power of the sun and the fact that a good number of nights the temperature stayed above freezing all night.

    WX/PT

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

    Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts. 

    I generally agree with this.

    WX/PT

    • Like 2

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    That storm on the Long Beach boardwalk was the best winter storm experience I’ve ever had. Wind with intensity even though the heaviest was over NJ. Thunder snow on 12/30/00 second best. My mom passed away recently so I can’t stay at her house for this but my place is fine. 

    So sorry about the loss of your mom.

    WX/PT

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

    Such textbook synoptics. The NAM and GFS progs are extreme, upper echelon - but think of it this way, 75% of that sort of outcome is still a crusher. Def wish my work schedule lined up in a way that I could have flown out to experience it. January 96 was a seminal event on my path towards becoming a NWS met.

    Ironically enough, during 2006 I was up skiing at Whiteface where we just had cirrus up there. And then in 2016 I had already been in the Chicago area for 5.5 years. Did get to experience the Feb 2010 craziness after missing the early month 'snowmageddon' and happened to be back in NYC during Nemo in 2013.

    Here's to an all timer for the area.


     

    I think this has top 5 potential in NYC barring a sudden right hand turn.

    WX/PT

    • Like 7

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    I think the 12Z Euro AI may have been the final call on this storm for our region. At most I think it grazes the area with a light snowfall. It could be a complete whiff. We'll know for sure by sometime tomorrow. But that's how I am currently leaning. Very light snowfall to zippo.

    WX/PT

    • Like 6

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

    so you are saying the models will return to the big storm solution as we get closer ?

    If I knew the answer to that. No the models know better than we humans do. But I will say that historically it's gone both ways. And it's also possible they'll bring back and less magnificent storm of 1-3,2-4, 3-6" or so or that we'll remain in the outer snowbands with a lighter/wetter snowfall. We need the ridge out west to stay stronger and leave enough room for this system to get wrapped up the way some of the models earlier depicted it. On most of the 00Z runs the top of the ridge was flattened making for a more progressive flatter trough in the east. As long as the AI models have this thing IMO it's a legitimate threat.

    WX/PT

    • Like 2

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

    Lesson learned never to get excited for a storm 5 days out with a hostile pattern 

    It's actually an increasingly favorable pattern for a storm. Amplification of the jet is increasing and things are slowing down just a little. That's as good as it gets going towards March & April. And there's still plenty of cold air to work with though I do think we will likely have a warmer stretch at some point soon. The cold is still cold enough.

    WX/PT

     

    • Like 3

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    The GFS didn't lose the storm, the trough flattened out a bit so the storm system slipped out to our south and east. That could happen. The Icon did the same thing really. Not to say it will but this can easily trend back closer to us on those models.

    WX/PT

    January 2026 OBS and Discussion

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: 
    30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026 
 
The February 2026 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of a La Niña 
Advisory and the potential emergence of an enhanced Madden Julian Oscillation 
(MJO) signal. La Niña conditions are present but are likely (75 percent 
chance) to transition to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral phase 
during the current January-February-March (JFM) season. The latest weekly Niño 
3.4 index was at -0.8 degrees Celsius, which is still in La Niña territory. 
However, at depth, a pool of warmer than normal water has been steadily 
expanding eastward from the western Pacific, consistent with a potential 
transition to ENSO neutral conditions. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the 
real-time multivariate MJO index has been increasing in recent days in the 
Western Pacific. By the start of February, most of the European Centre for 
Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble members predict this emerging 
MJO event to propagate to the Western Hemisphere/Africa or the Indian Ocean. 
Recent analysis of extratropical indices show that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) 
and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been mostly negative in early 
January (although both have trended closer to zero in the past few days). The 
Pacific North America (PNA) index has transitioned from the negative to the 
positive phase during the first half of January. Combined natural analog 
composites derived from the recent evolution of these tropical (ENSO and MJO) 
and extratropical (AO, NAO, and PNA) drivers depict a 500-hPa flow pattern 
dominated by anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific, off the west 
coast of North America. Downstream troughing is favored over the west-central 
CONUS while above normal heights are more likely across the Southeast. Weakly 
below normal heights are favored across the western Bering Sea. This combined 
natural analog composite is remarkably similar to trends  during the last 15 
years, which also favor increased ridging across the northeastern Pacific and 
the Southeast, and below normal heights over the northern tier of the 
west-central CONUS. Natural analog composites, trends , and dynamical guidance 
from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), North American Multi-Model 
Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the 
Forecast Consolidation Tool (CON) (which includes both dynamical model input 
and statistical guidance) form the basis of the February outlooks. The latest 
CPC Weeks 3-4 Outlooks and associated ensemble guidance from the ECMWF, Global 
Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and the CFSv2 also contributed. Antecedent 
conditions such as extratropical SSTs, sea ice extent, and snow cover anomalies 
were also considered where appropriate. 
 
Statistical guidance is supportive of potential widespread anomalous cold air 
outbreaks across much of the Lower 48 states during February. However, 
dynamical model guidance is much warmer, particularly across the southern 
two-thirds of the CONUS. This dichotomy between the colder statistical and 
warmer dynamical model guidance results in increased uncertainty in the 
February temperature outlook. However, given the strong agreement between 
recent trends , ENSO, MJO, and extratropical analogs  on the potential for 
anomalous cold across much of the northern and central CONUS, below normal 
temperatures are favored for much of these regions. The greatest confidence for 
below normal temperatures (40 to 50 percent chance) is indicated for the 
Northern High Plains, where statistical guidance shows the strongest signal. 
Conversely, statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in 
favoring above normal temperatures across the southeastern CONUS, with 
probabilities of warmer than normal conditions exceeding 50 percent across the 
Florida Peninsula. A second, but weaker, area of enhanced above normal 
temperature probabilities is posted for parts of the Southwest and Southern 
California due primarily to dynamical model guidance. Above normal SSTs off the 
west coast of the CONUS may also assist in increasing chances of above normal 
temperatures for coastal locations of Southern California. Enhanced 
probabilities of above normal temperatures were kept weak for this region as 
statistical guidance is much less supportive of increased warmth relative to 
dynamical model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored across western 
Alaska due to very good support from statistical guidance. However, dynamical 
model support is relatively weak, so probabilities of above normal temperatures 
are only modestly increased. Conversely, below normal temperatures are weakly 
favored for most of Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern 
Mainland, consistent with C3S model output with some support from natural 
analog composites (especially across Southeast Alaska). 
 
Although the current La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO neutral at some 
point during JFM 2026, statistical and dynamical model precipitation guidance 
still generally reflect a La Niña signature for the month of February. Above 
normal precipitation is favored from the Northern Rockies, Northern High 
Plains, and parts of the Pacific Northwest southeastward to northern portions 
of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. The greatest likelihood of 
above normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) is indicated across 
parts of the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, where both statistical 
and dynamical model guidance is in good agreement. A second region where above 
normal precipitation is favored is the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, adjacent areas 
of the interior Northeast, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, 
consistent with La Niña Composites as well as with dynamical model guidance, 
especially the C3S. Typical of La Niña, below normal precipitation is more 
likely across the southwestern and southeastern CONUS. The forecast favoring 
drier than normal weather across these two regions has good dynamical model 
support from the NMME. Above normal precipitation is favored for all of western 
Alaska. Dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in depicting increased 
chances of above normal precipitation across northwestern Alaska while 
statistical guidance generally supports an extension of this signal southward 
to southwestern Alaska. Conversely, a tilt of probabilities toward below normal 
precipitation is indicated for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the 
southeastern Mainland due primarily to dynamical model support, especially from 
the C3S.

    I'm not yet convinced we are going back to an all northern stream based pattern though we might temporarily. In the long run for February I think there will be a semi active subtropical jet and that we get at least one or two southern stream or phase-up storm systems up our way.

    WX/PT

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