FallsLake

It definitely looks like well flip to a colder pattern during the next two weeks. Big questions then are how long is the cold pattern and then of course do we get the big storm. But, as we've discussed in the past, even a great pattern doesn't always provide the storm. Or there is a storm and somebody is left out. Example, there could be a big coastal storm and folks in western sections are left out (some ensemble runs show this --> or the opposite, or south and not north, etc.). Point is we need the cold and we need a pattern shift that will give us multiple chances to increase the odds that more on this board can score a storm. 

Refocusing away from the big storm, we could see our friend the clipper(s) start to show in the medium range. Just need to get a deep enough eastern trough to get some of those northern disturbance south into our region. Many times we'll not see these solutions in the LR modeling so it could be something that pops inside 5 days.    

4 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Here we go again. Prime climo and this thread is the place to be. Does anyone actually expect cold in the se anymore?

There's cold up in western Canada. I think we'll get our chances in February. Indices don't look good going out two weeks. PNA will be strongly negative, AO and NAO positive. Again you would expect/hope that they then start to swing in the right direct afterwards (...three weeks?). 

From what all the mets have said and what the LR models show, it does look like most of January is toast. Of course we'll get a few cold fronts to come through and some locations in the mountains may see some light events (like yesterday); but it's going to be a warm pattern for at least a couple of weeks. 

Now a little positive attitude, I still think we have at least a 50/50 chance of getting into a better (if not great) pattern. Fab February could be coming. Couple of points: 1) All the indices are bad, but as said before what comes up must come down (question is when). 2) We've got locked into a stable pattern. Once we get into February/March (usually) the global stable winter patterns begin to fluctuate with  smaller troughs and ridges. No guarantees, but at least we can get (quick) eastern troughs again. 3) The northern hemisphere has had cold. It's been locked up in western Canada. If/when we get a flip, it should not take long (days) to get us very cold.  

So basically it could end up being the worse winter ever, Or it could end up being a great winter, or something in between.     

Got right down to 32 degrees this morning. Sad, but that's what I'm down to in looking for freezing morning temps. Almost like I'm in north Florida now.  

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Looking forward to getting past the half-way point in Jan.  Should see some signs of life showing up pretty soon.  Somewhere near the beginning of H2 January, we'll be tracking our first legitimate threat.

12z GFS is showing a quicker return of cold in the LR. The below image is for the 15th. It shows the cold (2m temps) pouring in; but what I like is it also shows the effects of the mountains (always slows our low level cold).

Got down to freezing at the house this morning. **next couple of weeks may not see many days this cold.....

29 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

I’ve received 37” from 2014-2019

I would put my location (right on the Granville/Wake line) at or greater than 5 feet from 2010 until now. I've been lucky and received big storms whereas folks in south Wake have missed out.  

Man, January is not looking good. Most LR models / indices give us little hope through mid month. I hate having access to the CFS model on the Pivotal site. It would indicate all of January is toast; and if you extrapolated, at least the first week of February is lost. But I (we) should know it'll show a different solution within the next few runs (hopefully).

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2020010106&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Pattern has looked and continues to look horrible. Things have to change sometime, right?

You really don't want to look at the CFS. But, if you do (day 24 2m temp anomaly):

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=sfct_anom&rh=2019123112&fh=564&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

One would think that eventually, just on the laws of probability and statistics, or even just "chance" we could get some legitimate winter time with the indeces in our favor. It seems like the patterns we want are just out of step right now. Maybe in a few years the timing will have changed a bit and we'll start to see them (especially -NOA) better aling with winter instead of summer? 

I keep thinking what goes up must come down (and vice versa). So with all the indices current in an unfavorable state, you would think a strong reversal is in order at the end of this month.

Also, I've read that in cold winters there is usually a mid winter thaw (a relaxing of the predominate pattern). This also applies to warm winters where a mid winter cold period usually occurs. If I'm correct, I think 2000 was an overall warm winter and we ended up getting this (at mid winter):

23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Still plenty of time

Yeah, we've seen many years where our first storm comes at the end of January; and then many more where (Fab)February saves us. I wasn't worried going up to Christmas (December usually doesn't produce anyways), but I would be lying by saying I wasn't worried about losing most of January.   

The indices today still look terrible. 

PNA - Still looks to go negative

AO/NAO - Stays strongly positive

EPO - Stays positive

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Hopefully things turn around at the end of this month. 

12 hours ago, ThePackBacker said:

You miss me

It's good to have you back! You still in Apex? 

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

I’m hoping we get blanked this year. That way momma nature owes us big time in 2021. I blame this winter on people who want it to be frigid in November. Thanks, guys.

Yep, we had a Halloween storm (..at least I did) and then the cold first 2/3 of November. It flipped warm in December and now is having a hard time flipping back cold. Sometimes Fab February can save us, but no guarantees.....   

Of course I'm hoping for the 12z model runs to show an epic SE snowstorm. But, I'm actually thinking they'll show warmer solutions in the LR. Looking at the indices, it doesn't look good.

PNA looks to go strongly negative **I've always considered this the most crucial

EPO looks to get down to neutral **it was showing negative

NAO looks to be positive **as always.

Merry Christmas everybody!! I hope you all have happiness and good health for the new year. And we all score a big dog storm......

12 minutes ago, FLweather said:

GFS has left rehab. Back on that shyte again. 

It has happened before. As a kid, back in the 70s, I remember Orlando getting snow. I was living near Cape Canaveral and I was jealous seeing kids playing in the snow. All we got were a few flurries (..that I didn't see). Someday it will happen again....

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

We got moisture with no cold air, flip it a week and we have cold with no moisture... Easy to bet on like the Patriots making the Super Bowl! :(

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

We'll be ok. At least cold is showing up. As many on here say, we got to get the cold first; then worry about moisture. 

12z GFS and Canadian have cooled (..backdoor cold front) for highs on Christmas day. Lots of low/mid 50s for highs. But they're still not close to the NAMs 30s/40s for central NC. At this point I would lean towards 50s for highs (goes with RAH thoughts). But it will be interesting to see if the models show cooler temps in the next few runs.  

Just now, CaryWx said:

Most forecasts I'm seeing are for 60s though. Any outlet putting stock in this?

RAH talked about he possibility in their overnight discussion. But they stated if the backdoor cold front pushed through, temps would be closer to normal for highs (more like the euro). 

^^The up state of SC would have highs in the upper 50s while Myrtle Beach stays in the 40s. 

12z NAM continues to show the backdoor cold front for Christmas. The NE to SW approach would put areas in central NC northeastward in the coolest air. RDU would have a high of ~40.  

The question I'm getting from many of my friends/family is what's the weather going to be for Christmas. Last couple of days I've been telling them sunny with a high ~60. I may have to change that; RAH mentioned that a backdoor cold front may get pushed southward into the SE. Right now they're not sure how far south it will get (if it pushes southward). Some of the latest models are also interesting. Looking at RDU -- The GFS is the warmest with temps in the upper 50s at mid day. The euro and Canadian has temps in the low/mid 50s. And finally the NAM has temps in the upper 30s and low 40s through central NC. That would be a surprise change.

8 minutes ago, Solak said:

Surprisingly, last night was the coldest of the past 3 here at the house. Made it down to 26, despite the cloud cover.

26 for a low at my house as well. It's currently 29 and overcast. 

I've always been a fan of the PNA (...being positive). It seems it has the most effect on the SE for increasing the chance of winter storms. Right now I'm not seeing any solid positive setups. Just lots of weak lows drifting through western Canada (not good). The AO looks to go solidly negative so that will help get some (and keep) cold air over into out hemisphere. We just need a big high pressure to come down through western Canada (with +PNA).  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml