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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    Let's be honest, we didn't even do ice tracking well this time. The GFS led the charge and we thought it had a chance at being vastly different than a lot of guidance, but like they usually do, everything moved towards each other and converged in the middle. It won't be all rain for me or you, but it also most likely won't be .5" of ice either. I thought for a sec we were in trouble when the 12z GFS and then Euro and the 18z NAM had gotten icier, but pretty much everything has trended downwards from there.
  2. DDweatherman
    WRF ARW is way nw/warmer with the front/temps vs 18z. This could trend all the way gone by gametime if those leary of ice keep rooting it on (until 12z trends colder again)
  3. DDweatherman
    Well there's that too lol we'll get a storm when Randy's out of town next weekend.
  4. DDweatherman
    It only has a minimal shot if that northern energy clears way outta the way
  5. DDweatherman
    That's more accurate, same folks who saw ice and sleet on the NAM and Euro see it on the GFS. 6z was warmer then you saw 12z. For those who are in the impact zone, these are important runs. If the 0z GFS looks like 12z or the 18z NAM, thats not a good sign. We're getting to the point where we are starting to look at NAM's for thermals as well.
  6. DDweatherman
    You make so many bad posts...
  7. DDweatherman
    I just saw it and came over here to see if anyone said anything... this frame is not a bad look.... allowed the N wave to get out in front and give it some climb.
  8. DDweatherman
    I'm in one of the danger zones for this one. Hmm nothing like being trapped for days in my hilly neighborhood with 2 kids (2 and <1 yr)
  9. DDweatherman
    So you're saying I'm gonna get hit nicely in Carroll Valley? If so, I agree
  10. DDweatherman
    ICON was a good bit colder in some spots Friday morning on 12z vs 6z... for example 24 degrees cooler in York at 12z Friday morning
  11. DDweatherman
    If the ARW is right, theres gonna be some problems I'd say
  12. DDweatherman
    Just spike the ball like you did in the other thread before 18z and we’ll get a big improvement
  13. DDweatherman
    You know the ole Nogaps/navgem progressive rule...
  14. DDweatherman
    I liked it, closest we've seen on something other than the GFS that would give us at least a chance. 18z control have anything?
  15. DDweatherman
    You don't have to make yourself susceptible to being wrong just because you're not in a place to do pbp. These people here can go look them damn selves lol.
  16. DDweatherman
    But some people are going to be expecting forecasts around ice potential a bit more than 12 hours in advance of the onset...
  17. DDweatherman
    Guess the NAM is teeing up the 18z GFS meltdown like we had last week that one run pre coastal scrape.
  18. DDweatherman
    It will probably meet the euro in the middle for a compromise? Maybe a 60% GFS/40% euro compromise lol
  19. DDweatherman
    Yeah it makes good progress early on then decides to take the low to Garret county and halt the progression. Not a lot of other models doing that. Pull out weenie rule book to say earlier hours are more important on the NAM.
  20. DDweatherman
    I'm liking the positioning of the high and the feed of cold air in at h60. Heights were lower out in front of the main slug here in our region.
  21. DDweatherman
    hr 30
  22. DDweatherman
    agreed. I do notice the slightest bit more tilt N to S on the axis, which could lead to less draping of the front.
  23. DDweatherman
    I just looked over us at one frame stopped after that lol
  24. DDweatherman
    I don't really care who is right between you and him, I just want to know about the run. I'm trying to play poker atm
  25. DDweatherman
    Where is the most important part? Can you make a box?
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