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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I've learned the key too happiness is dismissing all model runs that show "the big one" and being satisfied with 2-4" that coats everything. Unfortunately knowing the key to happiness is only half the battle. I get disappointed regardless when the clown maps don't pan out, despite knowing better.
  2. olafminesaw
    No need to cliff jump or celebrate until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. We have a pretty good feel for the envelope and I do feel the UKMET outcome is well within it. It seems lot of the conventional wisdom about the North trend is only true maybe half the time and this still looks like A+ chance for most on this board (even if it doesn't end up working out)
  3. olafminesaw
    Definitely a big step towards the GFS with more of a hybrid Miller A. Doesn't totally cave though, which is good for most everyone
  4. olafminesaw
    GEFS looks Great. Less amped than the GFS, but a solid hit for all NC
  5. olafminesaw
    Would be a nasty ice storm south of I85. That's a stout wedge
  6. olafminesaw
    Need this to stop trending North
  7. olafminesaw
    Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution
  8. olafminesaw
    Can't afford to see much more amplification than what the GFS depicts. Which is why the Euro is good news. The only other model in the GFS camp is the icon, so I think the full range of outcomes is still on the table
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    And this is the part of the show where I get overly invested...
  11. olafminesaw
    The Euro is almost more frontal, which we don't so much like, if we're hoping for big totals.
  12. olafminesaw
    Gotta love how cold that run is for most of central NC. What a bizarre storm track though. Seems like small changes could yield wildly different results
  13. olafminesaw
    It's really encouraging to see multiple rolls of the dice. I don't think we can put much weight on any one of these modeled storm scenarios yet, but I can't help feeling like something will inevitably shake out in our favor
  14. olafminesaw
    Money
  15. olafminesaw
    Close, but no cigar
  16. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I mean, fair's fair. Gotta bring balance to the force, or whatever
  17. olafminesaw
    Right where we want it
  18. olafminesaw
    Realistically in that scenario the triad and SE would be at least half sleet
  19. olafminesaw
    It seems there's some data issues with the GFS, but showing on the old fashioned NWS site. Wow
  20. olafminesaw
    I'd be shocked if y'all didn't get any more snow. But I'll take my annual fifteen minutes of Fame
  21. olafminesaw
    Not much cold air to speak of though
  22. olafminesaw
    Seems the only kind of snow we can get these past few years is 5:1 patchy stuff
  23. olafminesaw
    Seems we'll be in a bit of a dry slot for the next couple hours in the Triad, still, should get several good hours of snow
  24. olafminesaw
    Great sun angle though!
  25. olafminesaw
    Could end up a lot like the Feb 2020 "storm" (in the Triad)
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