mimillman

Just now, Stebo said:

The Thursday piece was much stronger which lowered heights ahead of the weekend system, that is why it tracked further south while being stronger.

Was just about to say.

Nevertheless this storm looks incredible for the entire eastern half of the country.

18 minutes ago, Stebo said:

My thought though is that the Euro is more amplified than anything and that also works in the direction of stronger highs too. Also the euro was the furthest south with the storm that just occurred only to come north as the storm closed in, so do have that going against the suppressed Euro solution.

Euro handled the most recent storm better than the god awful GFS. The FV3 was probably best.

FWIW though, the FV3 looks most similar to the GFS at hour 120

3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Chicago congrats. This would be your second big storm of a el nino winter, impressive. Bastardi must be living in rage right now............

Chicago?!?

Fighting some dry air now in these parts. I’m not worried, radar looks good.

Should continue to be a snowy night.

I know it’s garbage time, but the 18z GFS puts down 6-12” across the sub forum next weekend, followed by sub zero temperatures. Now this, I like.

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

If you were even following the OP GFS that tells me all I need to know.

These totals were always in the envelop of possibility. The cut off was the main issue point, and ended up in the southern tier of Wisconsin counties, which was always a possibility as well.

Lol it’s the first global to run of the suite man, gotta get my fix

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not an over-performance at all. FV3/GGEM/ECMWF all showed 2-5" across the metro for the past 1 day+, so that's not really correct.

I’m sorry I disagree.

Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well.

There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer.

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Nothing about this is really over-performer really.

Quality guidance had 2-5" for the metro, which is on track to occur.

I would say the system generally overperformed expectations in our neck of the woods. The “quality” guidance didn’t really show much for the city and north until yesterday. Cook county didn’t even have an advisory posted.

Could have easily gone the other way. 

Overperformer underway in the metro, finally!

FWIW dewpoints here aren’t bad, hovering just under 20 degrees, same as KSPI

Another swing and a miss for downtown Chicago and points just south. We’re in the sweet spot of the sub forum this year that gets missed to our north and missed to our south with the two biggest events of the season.

If we can muster 2” with this system (which is looking unlikely), we would tie our season high. Perhaps the one behind this late next weekend can bring us some love.

10 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Going with DAB

I say 1.3” at MDW

21 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The FV3 is once again far more amped in terms of moisture than the GFS. St. Louis cashes in once again.

Actually backed off on the northern edge, but that’s to be expected as models consolidate.

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Dubuque has only 6" for the season, so if they get a sharp cutoff to the south of them again they're definitely gonna be feeling a bit miffed up there.  They also missed out on the March 24th snowstorm by a short distance as well.  

Downtown Chicago and northern Indiana are probably at less than that. ORD gives us a bad name.

8 minutes ago, Baum said:

take your  dusting to an inch and be happy knowing its the start of  better days  ahead.

Indeed. That GFS run looked most promising 3rd decade

NAM crash to reality begins

8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Man 0z nam is really something. Is it on crack or into something? It isn't in it's good range so not sure I believe it's very amped/moisture laden solution. But man this would be awesome. Large area of warning criteria snow

Crack

36 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Da Bears

Nothing like Cody Parkey to top off an atrocious winter. ****

I don’t really understand. The upcoming pattern in the next 10 days doesn’t scream cold to me, it just looks seasonal.

Maybe low to mid 30s for highs seems cold compared to this absolutely atrocious winter so far, but in the heart of January it’s seasonal. The upcoming pattern looks good if you live in upstate Michigan/GTA/New York for clipper action, but for anyone south or west of there, here’s to praying for February. 

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You know what I think?  If you ever see somebody say that the winter is going to be epic, turn away as fast as you can.  I think you can look at analogs, etc and come up with a general idea of how the pattern may go, but even if you're right and it looks like the greatest thing you've ever seen, you could get screwed on enough individual systems to prevent it from being an epic winter.  Let's face it, we judge the winter more on snow output.  

“Winter is going to be epic” is what sells unfortunately.

And the worst part is the banter drives up the price of your heat, only to have December at +10 departures across the upper Midwest 

2 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

I never could have imagined such an awful winter.  Indy recorded a 0.5" of snow for all of December.  While some had a decent November, Indy had just 0.4" leaving Indy still failing to reach the 1" mark for the season.  The good news is sunny and near 50 for the weekend allowing me to do a couple of nice bike rides.  

Agree, definitely going to go for a nice run outside.

The Chicago suburbs were saved by November. The city, not so much. The big storm in November yielded about 2” downtown.

The 00z Euro...it's just so so so bad. This is incredibly demoralizing.

Rain still mixing in with snow here. Ground still completely bare, not even a trace in the city.

Torrential rain continues

6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Wow, that's the worst. I know exactly how you feel. 

What part of Chicago do you reside? I'm assuming (without looking at the maps), lack of dynamic cooling and warmer lake temps. definitely playing a role. 

I’m right on the lake just south of the river. We’ve gotten use to these outcomes though for early season storms. Just gotta hope we can nickel and dime it back with minor lake effect later in the season.