mimillman

3 minutes ago, ohwxguy said:

Rather underwhelming so far here in Uptown, Chicago. It’s now 10 pm and while I can see the snow falling under the street lights outside my windows, for the most part it’s falling like rain. Doesn’t look even remotely close to accumulating yet. 

Torrential rain with some snowflakes mixed in, about 34 degrees.

Would be nice to switch with the Des Moines folks right around now 

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

2nd time it's happening in November in just the past few years.  

It almost seems like a miracle that Chicago got a foot from that storm in November 1895, considering that the official site was located at Wabash and Congress back then.

That was the winter of 2015-2016. 

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Kinda second guessing my bumped call of 3-4" and wondering if the original of 1-2" may be better.  I'm pretty sure one of those will work out though lol

I thought 3-5 was attainable downtown but I’d backtrack that to 1-3”. Think most of our accumulation will occur after midnight and lake areas may get a boost from lake enhancement/effect around rush hour.

Unfortunate though that ORD will be the “nameplate” for Chicago for this event. It truly is misrepresentative of the actual city.

Just quickly went outside. I’d say it’s about a 70/30 mix rain/snow at the moment in the heart of downtown. Strongest sustained winds i can remember so far this year.

Eh, will probably take another hour still for a turnover here. Oh well, at least I can say that downtown saw some flakes.

Very close to turning over here. Think these brighter echoes to our south will put over the edge.

Flakes mixing in here now, but just a few and far between

I’ve got lightning here

Absolutely torrential wind driven rain. Haven’t seen rain this heavy since a mid summer thunderstorm.

8 minutes ago, ohwxguy said:

Rain now mixing with snow in Uptown in Chicago (2 blocks from Foster & Lake Shore Drive). Certainly no accumulation yet, but the timing of the changeover to mixed precip lines up with the anticipated timeframe. Now we’ll see if it’s over to all snow around 9 pm.

Happy to hear changeover is occurring for you. I’m down on Columbus and Randolph, so imagine it’ll be another hour or so before we start seeing the first flakes fly. Hoping for a full changeover by 10 or 11.

Just now, Hoosier said:

We had obs from the old bank clock back in the day.  Do you have an accurate temperature ob there?  Just curious to see how much the urban effects and the lake are affecting things.

Unfortunately I don't

Absolutely torrential rain in the loop right now. Looking forward to seeing some of the swells on the Lake tomorrow

Actually surprisingly dry in the loop. Expecting mostly rain until 10:00 or 11:00 and then we'll see the changeover.

Another scenario where I'm sure Romeoville would love to have Cook county split into two advisory zones. Blizzard conditions possible in northwestern Cook, minor accumulations in the southern part of the county along the Lake.

Know it's nowcasting time, but GFS also took a tick South, probably 10-25 miles

12z NAM a lot more generous on the southern end.

GFS is a bit slower as trends have been so far this evening 

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If you're in Chicago or nearby, I'd pay particularly close attention to the timeframe from about 00z-03z tomorrow.  Tremendous lift coming through around that time and if there's going to be a time when the rain/snow line jumps southeast quicker than progged, that would be it.  

Fly into Midway tomorrow at 4:30pm. I changed my flight from 1:00am originally for exactly that reason, hoping to get in before the worst of the wind/snow.

12z Euro is close to an all snow scenario for Chicago, maybe eve already all snow for ORD where totals approach 12”.

I’m very surprised the GFS has been so steadfastly northwest. I can’t remember the last time the GFS has been northwest of consensus.

3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Looks a touch south. Either that or a touch slower.

Slower, but same latitude. 

I’m inclined to believe the GFS this go around. Each run has been remarkably consistent on the north trend today, and the ensembles are with it. Euro ensembles also shifted northwest a good amount today.

Even the King can fail every once in a while.

While we’ve had some snow in the loop so far this season, nothing sticking unfortunately. Has definitely set the mood the past week, but would have liked at least some accumulation!

Wrapping up with the first flakes of this event as some heavier echoes sit over the city.

All rain in Chicago. Lake is just too warm for us this early in the year.