mimillman

4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

There's a pretty monstrous area of 8"+ on the 00z GFS. Came in more juiced and stronger all around. Big broad stripe across pretty much the whole sub. Gonna be a lot of happy people with that run.

 

EDIT: Pic added.

 

 

Epic

God this thing has so much potential.

GFS north again.

2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Also we can still get to a more northeast trajectory if we can get neutral or negative tilt to southern wave or earlier phasing with northern stream/PV lobe like last night's Ukie and the stronger ensemble members.

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Euro was pretty close to a neutral tilt, just a tad too late.

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's not on the list but this setup to me is pretty reminiscent of 1/4-5/14. I know you or someone else mentioned the similarities to that event as well. It had the initial fronto snows in northern IL that were more significant than earlier modeled and also the main wave and surface low trended northwest leading up to the event. Also the huge cold dump following closely on the heels of the synoptic snow. Outside of GHDI & II, that's one of my favorite events since I've lived here.

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Me me, that was me!

Good jog northwest. Great set up for lake enhancement/lake effect. 1045+mb high incoming. Great ratios.

I’m getting ahead of myself, but you gotta love this.

Just looking at 500, 18z GFS should come north

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Typically these winter storms that require so many pieces to come together rarely pan out. Just so sensitive to the smallest of changes. So many PV's involved and that brutal high pressure. Honestly it is a crap shoot at this point. Feel like the high end potential of this isn't super high but feel like a moderate event is more likely. Not discounting a powerhouse storm but atm I'm not feeling confident in that

??

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah a lot of that is jet driven and slow moving cold frontal. I believe what it is showing at face value of the run itself.

Worth noting this another Saturday day event 

Euro ensembles are solid. North of the OP.

Edit: would be hard pressed to find ensemble runs with such widespread 6”+ amounts.

1 minute ago, Angrysummons said:

It won't be fully sampled until Friday. The models are basically saying now, this energy is not that impressive. I could even see a further north move without one iota of improvement in terms of its structure just on general bias.............

Of course when something is in the dead lands of the central pacific.............it is not easy to sample. We have had several storms in the 120-144 range look incredible to only fizzle out 24-48 hours later.

Point is, you can’t bake a cake without the ingredients. Even if it fizzles out because the energy is unimpressive, for the 1st time this winter I feel like we have all of the other ingredients.

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro Kuchera has a pretty broad area of 6+.  Northern extent near the IL/WI border over into southern MI.

Ratios save areas to the north. Dry air aloft not as big of an issue.

Euro shunted good deal south of 00z. Still, it looks decent for most of the sub forum especially factoring in higher ratios.

One big difference I’ve noticed is the Euro actually closing off the low at 500mb. Trough axis tries to go neutral but is just a tad too late, perhaps due to a slightly more southwestern positioning of the PV this run.

It’s very close and needs to be watched.

Euro good deal stronger with 1st wave. GFS could be onto something

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z FV3 has slowed the PV lobe noticeably compared to the 00z run, allowing the main energy to amp up a little more... definitely an improvement.

It’s a solid hit for a good chunk of us. Would take that and run

Ukie goes from central Arkansas to western Virginia between hours 120-144

I may be wrong here but I think the set up would favor suppression over a GGEM like solution?

PV looks like it took a decent jog southwest on this run. 

First system north and amped again on the GFS. Actually gets some snow up to Chicago on this run. We’ll see how it plays out downstream.

That Euro run....

Dare I say the amount of snow and cold air after has shades of Jan 4-5 2014?

GGEM looked good but then turns this into some sort of elaborate cold front.

The LE signal nonetheless is strong here and as Hoosier was mentioning earlier, I think Milwaukee to northern Indiana should be monitoring closely 

MSLP further south and also faster. Still a glob of precip to the north. Decent hit for the sub forum, St Louis cashes in again.

Lake effect set up is good for the western shore

1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Sorry, I see you meant that little wave out ahead of the main show. Could have some impact tho

We were discussing earlier. It’s impact as a stronger system would lead to less amplified heights for the main show, favoring a southern solution.

There are other factors in play though, we’ll see.

00z GFS more amped with 1st wave again.

High pressure in Canada slightly less strong though

This is the main headline on weather.com

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-13-snow-ice-arctic-cold-rockies-central-east-late-week

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's at least 24 hours of pure lake effect (not including lake enhancement) targeting the IL/WI shoreline area on this run.  Nothing is guaranteed in weather but I'd almost lock in the idea of several inches in the Chicago-Milwaukee corridor even this far out.  There would have to be a massive breakdown in the synoptic setup to not only take the system out of reach, but the LES too.

I have a good feeling about this one, which is rare for me