HIPPYVALLEY

GFS big time east shift

You are going to see some awesome conditions no matter what happens. Good on you for making a road trip.

I'm not sure what would suck more about having the Euro bust badly, greatly reduced totals from this storm or shattered confidence in the model going forward for the rest of the winter. lol

I think the euro is going to cave harder than we think tonight.

Lose the stall?

Upton gradually shifted their map to the east, still showing insane amounts.

Exactly.  You'll have some fun in the snow tomorrow.

RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

 

But we got a long ways to go.

I'm not sure people grasp that.  I was not even slated for more than -SN until midnight and it looks like what's pivoting in will be at or just ahead of that time frame. We'll see where it goes from there but current obs can sometimes deceive folks from the overall modeled solutions. 

Albany looks to be in some decent returns right now while lesser echoes are East of there.

21F less than inch on the ground in Mendon.  20 miles SE of Worcester and it's just about 7PM.... When does this start?

I would say it has started. 

I would be laughing so hard--the continuation of the 2014-15 winter. 

Most of the general public wouldn't be. There would be lynch mobs out for the mets.  lol

If the Euro and NAM are in agreement, as a met, you don't want to go against them.

the 21z HRR on NCEP is significantly more west with precip shield than the 20z

Some of us have remained unperturbed today by the paranoid talk of WNE being screwed etc.

L-O-V-I-N-G   I-T

Wow, upping our totals rather than lowering.  What East trend?  lol

RPM completely disagree's with Euro. Interesting that some of there other hires models have also gone significantly East. If the RPM's right I only get 8", if the Euro is right 18-20"... Can't believe such a big difference at this late stage. 

 

What are the Hires models picking up ???!!??

They should be able to handle convective feedback right?

Initialization errors?

GFS qpf totals will bring frowns to lots of faces.  Still a decent storm.

 

Ride the EC.

 

snowing lightly at the Pit.

 

16.4/6

BOX not buying.  They are riding a different horse:

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH

OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN

QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/

WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND

THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

They're map has not updated from this morning but my 4:30 zone forecast is still 18-24"

Why not? its been pretty consistent. Im concerned. 

Relax, you're fine. 

Significant tick east on the 18z rgem.  Not buying it.

Apparently neither are any of the NWS offices.  BOX has not updated map but Albany, Upton and GYX all look like updated maps (time sigs) that keep W NE well in the game.  I trust their collective ability to interpret models.  

LOL, live and die by the Euro out here. it doubles up every other model for snow in W MA.

upton upped totals again wow lol

ncep discussion really rode the Euro.

Can't help but feel once this thing starts cranking the Euro/Nam end up being more right than wrong.

Travel ban issued by Baker, starting at midnight

Statewide?

Thanks Chris and Scott on the airport update.  Doubt number 1 is the flight even leaves, doubt number 2 is I'm standby.  I may just call it a day and head home.

 

Worse than being stuck here at the airport while the model consensus is rapidly shifting this to being a mundane experience for GC.  Unless the EC remains steadfast, I'm going to go with <10" for the Pit with a huge and rapid  escalation as you head 50 miles toward HubbDave.

Lol, we are not getting under 10". I'm going with 12-16" out here as my guess.

hey Scott MPM got bumped but wanted me to ask you what the chances are they get him out on a 4:30 out of Hartford?

some of these runs this morning really have the I-91 crowd in MA riding the edge of good and great. I'm throwing my money on the Euro and spinning the wheel.

Ct already w/ pages long lists of schools with early dismissals and closings for today. Lol

BTV 4km WRF...

image.jpg

I'm not really buying into some of the models that are spitting out .25" qpf back here. That would only happen in a significant move E or in a wound up tighter moisture field. Not saying it couldn't happen but NWS certainly isn't going with those solutions.

Just a quick question from the UK. 

 

1) Do we have any live stream TV forecast stations covering the event constantly? TWC for example..but local.

Find a stream for a Boston channel: WCVB, WHDH, WBZ. NECN would work too.