CAD_Wedge_NC

Yeah, I was 15 years old at the time. Didn't know that I would never see a snowy winter like that again. Same applies to 1977 for the cold. This up coming pattern may just have another piece of history with it.

One thing is for sure..... we will have plenty of snow cover to the north. So, any cold air that tries to get this far down will be unabated.

Figured that might happen with the op showing some stream separation.

Good luck with that... lol

Thanks for dropping by... you are always welcome here.

If we dodge this next two weeks without a snow event in the southeast, then somebody "just ain't living right"

I can guarantee you with 100% confidence that it will never happen as shown. There is no way a 1052 Hp in the NE doesn't drive enough cold are down for a mega wedge. Temps would be well below freezing in all the CAD areas. I call BS.

I don't recall ever seeing a model forecast with highs in the single digits for my area since I have been following the models back in the early 1990's. Even in fantasy land. If this cold shot verifies, as some of the runs suggest, we will be talking about this one for many years to come. This would mean lows well below zero for a lot of folks. I know it will never happen.... is it even possible in today's climate?

GFS caving to the Euro.... what a surprise.

Let's all hope the Euro has a better handle on things. If it holds serve over the next 24 hours, I will say that it's solution is believable. Right now, the GFSfv 500mb depiction (trough too far east) would suggest a wedge/damming event, meaning more of a freezing rain/sleet type of event. I would like to see that work itself out in the next several runs. If this is going to be a major snow event, we will more than likely know in the next couple of days. Once we are within 72 hours, the chances of big swings are drastically reduced. Right now we hug the Euro....

This will be a good test for it. Right now (18z) it shows an apps runner while the 12z Euro shows a miller A. Will the Euro cave?

I agree with you at this point. In order for us to score with this one, there needs to be more damming or a weaker system. An amped up storm with lots of qpf will not give us a winter storm with this pattern. Can it look better come game-time? yes but it's not what we want just yet.

Need to head south down 85 and pick up Mac first. He needs to spend a day riding the bus.

I believe the difference is that the low is more amped up and 3mb lower in pressure. It's not as progressive. All that waa doesn't allow the confluence to remain in place, That could spell trouble for snow-lovers.

Thing that I find most alarming is the amount of liquid equivalent with this storm. Notice the increase from this morning's run....

Yep, the pattern looks a lot more favorable now that the GL low is no longer in play. Looks like a true miller A type storm incoming. I am still a little concerned with surface/850 temps, but as has been mentioned in previous posts, the confluence in the northeast is stout and should allow surface and 850 temps to trend colder as we approach the event. Now we wait to see how the trends develop over the next few days. Once we get inside the NAM's wheelhouse, we will get a better idea on thermal profiles. Until then, let's enjoy the tracking.

Yes, it's much better than the crappy pattern we have been in. Let the fun and games begin.

Yep, sure looks good right now. Noticed that we lost the Great Lakes low from last run. Mac will be happy.

Think it will be getting cold sooner than that. Latest runs are indicating around the 15th.

Models are have a tough time figuring out what the MJO is going to do. That's why we have differences between the big three. I am leaning towards the American camp with a slight nod/wish to the CMC. The Euro is out to lunch with regards to the MJO. Look for big changes when it all gets sorted out.

MJO says "I am the ruler right now" "Winter starts when I say so."

I see that you are back to your old self, now that all your snow has melted.

Seen it happen before......

The FV3's track for the storm was spot on for a week out. Almost unheard of. It did not get the thermals exactly right but hey, for it to be that close at that range is great to see. I would give it a solid A

01z RAP loves the upstate of SC