DeltaT13

A sure sign that things are quite frozen (Graupel) just off the surface.

Oh my, can't say that I've seen many lake effect bands (albeit rain) that are that robust. That thing is an absolute monster. And as usual, it craps right out as it drops elevation moving into Monroe County.

I think the very saturated ground, leaf laden trees, different wind direction from previous events, and relatively long duration of high winds will all come into play to create some localized power outages.

Already have have 1.35 in the backyard rain guage with nice banding and convergence continually setting up over KROC. Feeling good, especially with the Bills taking care of business!!

I'm with you, seems like a very significant storm yet I'm not hearing much about it (From my friends and family at least). I'm getting some barometers set up, might be some of the lowest pressure I've recorded in some time. I would think that Lake Ontario should be under storm warnings.

What an exciting few days ahead and as many have mentioned we are missing out on some historic winter weather by just a few weeks/degrees. Anyway, glad to see this thing going sub 980mb, I would love to see it trend a little further west to bring all of WNY into the game. The trees are way behind schedule so I'm guessing we'll see some damage, but this area has been crushed by high wind events over the last year so things are fairly battle hardened. Buffaloweather - A prolonged period of good waterspout parameters also looks good from Mon-Wed. Are you going to chase? I'm going to keep an eye on lake Ontario and may shoot up there is things look good on radar. Not a great fetch for me though. Tim, you're in a nice spot for this one!

Wow, really? That squall line this past Sunday was one of the more exciting things to happen all "summer" in regards to Severe Weather in ROC. Seemed average or below average at best. Even nasty looking lines and cells never seemed to amount to much. We just get shadowed so hard on the West Side or Rochester. Really hoping this winter isnt a dud. Last winter started strong and ended decent with that one major dump, but January and February were a complete loss. For any average person, this is an amazing and safe place to live. For a weather enthusiast it's been pretty damn tame. Thank god we got that amazing wind event and storm in March otherwise the whole year has been dull aside from endless rain. Edit - I remember the tornado outbreak now, but it had no impact on KROC. That was pretty damn intense.

Kroc gusted to 62 during the squall line.

Well that certainly was a sharp and intense squall. I have to imagine some people are losing power right now in Monroe. Gusts seemed to be 50-60 for about 1 minute at the peak. Just heard the volunteer sirens going off.

Roc Ended up with 5th heaviest 24 hour October rainfall since 1873. 2.39" A noteworthy rain/tropical event. A perfect rainy windy fall day, too bad it had to be on Columbus Day.

Depending on how we quantify the way that it affects our area, the return interval of moderate or significant impact seems more like 5-7 years. Off the top of my head I can think of Sandy (2012), ike (2008), and Frances (2004.) Irene (2011) caused some decent winds and waves on Ontario but that was about it. The very fast forward speed of Nate should keep him quite juicy as he moves through.

I might get my remnant tropical system afterall this year. NAM/Euro show a very soggy and western track right across WNY.

You can't be serious? Even with blatant data that you yourself present. Im guessing a trump supporter to boot.... Ugh Wake up dude, its basic science.

The Northern Lights were briefly visible last night from our area, too bad it wasnt clearer and didnt last longer (And the moon wasnt so damn full and bright!). That said, they were visible for a short time. A local Rochester photographer takes absolutely incredible shots almost daily around here. Their name is Montanus Photography and they caught another few gems last night. Here is a 30 second exposure they captured from Webster. I was up at the lake trying to catch the Northern Lights when I saw this large cell start to develop from the nocturnal land breeze that was forming over the lake. Apparently the photographer was able to capture an amazing shot of this same cloud, half illuminated with moonlight and half illuminated with lightning. A truly awesome shot.

A sky cam in Buffalo caught a full life cycle of a spout this morning. Pretty nice video.

Anyone chasing spouts along lake Erie this morning? Looks like a perfect day. I really need to get out and do that one of these days. Lake Ontario was throwing up some real nice Cumulus on my drive in to work.

Because it's weather, and it's interesting. Am I supposed to be excited for 63 degrees and sunny? Winds of 30-60mph from remnant systems this time of year usually bring some excitement, Ike took down a lot of limbs and powerlines as it made its way through in 2008. It was quite the spectacle to see strong winds several days after landfall and 1500 miles away. A raw, windy, "tropical", fall day is certainly a rarity around here. Additionally, my real hope was last week when I thought Irma was going to blast into the east coast and get here as a low end Hurricane, thats the dream path. Been waiting all my life for that one. I really am not sure what kind of supposed "weather enthusiast" doesnt want a tropical system to make it up this way.

Well any hope of WNY getting in on the action from Irma is quickly withering away. Guess we'll have wait another 10 years or so. Grrrrr

These latest runs are looking great for a major hit on the East Coast. Been waiting awhile for one of these. I would love to see it track right into Upstate NY. Fingers Crossed!

I was down in Western North Carolina for the Eclipse. Clouds nearly sank us at the last minute but we just barely eeked it out! Probably the most amazing natural phenomenon that I've ever witnessed. Incredible stuff.

It's just one of the millions of variations that can occur. It's basically one of the rainiest spring/summers in the last 137 years for WNY/Upstate NY so you are correct in thinking its cloudier than usual. Large scale patterns around the globe have locked in a persistent upper low over Hudson Bay. This pattern is similar to the large scale blocking patterns in the North Atlantic that give us a colder and snowier winters, such as the infamous Winter or 2015 when we were below freezing for something like 40 days straight. It's just a natural variation. As an avid gardener and lover of plants, trees, etc..... I would much rather a wet cool summer than that brutal drought last year. At least it looks lush and happy outside, albeit a tad bit chilly.

Pretty serious looking velocity couplet. Definitely looks like a tornado.

I guess I was off a little. If you do the most basic interpretation of this excerpt from the NWS then you end up with a return interval of once every 6.8 years for snowfall in May. How rare is snow in May? Since 1900, Buffalo has had 16 years with measurable snow in the month of May and Rochester 17 years. That comes out to roughly 14 percent of the time we see measurable snow in the month of May.

Rochester had snow on May 15th last year. And we had snow on may 9th in 2010. Not unheard but certainly unpleasant. Seems like it has a return interval of about once every 4 years or so. If it's going to happen, it may as well lay down a few inches so we can really say it happened and remember it well. I'm pulling for it at this point.

I really wish we could have broken into some solid sun here. Such a shame to waste a truly high risk setup. Still thinking someone will get some serious straight line damage and flash floods. Things really go into the tank starting this weekend in regards to nice weather. That awful cutoff low just pinwheels over us for 7 days straight. Brutal stuff, we just need to dry out!