DeltaT13

Expecting to see our sunny morning fade into some scattered snow showers soon as the winds are shifting now. The wind has been roaring today too with good mixing from all the sunshine. King city radar looking good even with synoptic moisture drying up. https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr

If that band keeps intensifying the way it appears to be right now, you might get some dynamic cooling in the heart of it and you'll get some snow/graupel. I probably should have chased this thing....

I meant to give you credit for this correction. I looked back in my weather journal and found this entry I made. Still an awesome storm... even though many of us seem to have forgotten about it, myself included. "A large lee side low formed over the plains this past week. This storm deepened into the first blizzard of the year over the upper plains. This storm then undercut a weak ridge and began to fill. A large and nearly subtropical low was stationary offshore of New Jersey. This large sub tropical low was slowly absorbed by the large dying winter storm crossing the lakes. Both storms finally phased in Eastern NY/Southern Quebec On Sunday the 20th. The storm rapidly deepened to 985mb before becoming stacked. An enormous and nearly endless supply of wrap around moisture was pulled around the storm with an amazing precip cutoff in WNY. This moisture combined with 850 temps of nearly -10 to -14 created intense and long lasting lake enhanced snows SE of the lakes. Boundary temps were questionable at the beginning of storm but eventually my backyard dropped into upper 20's under heaviest snow and accumulations quickly piled up. Buffalo received less than a half inch. Rochester recorded 14.8 inches even though it melted, compacted and settled tremendously so much that there was never really more than 6-8 inches on the ground. A Georgian bay connection was critical to priming the air for the western counties. Other places around the Eastern end of lake Ontario picked up from 2-5 feet of snow. This storm was considered one of the largest early season snow storms for our area in recorded history. Winds were also very strong and lasted for nearly 3 days. Gusts into the 40's and 50's were common."

At least its a nice strong reponse out of the gates. I think it will change to snow quicker than you think but actual accumulation will be slow with a very warm early season ground.

We had a synoptic storm on Thanksgiving eve a few years back, perhaps 2012? That storm dropped a fair amount of snow if I remember correctly. The CF6s only got back 5 years (which is soooo stupid) so I can't check easily right now.

November 20-21, 2016. Rochester got 12-15 inches of snow. It was a large storm that came through the lakes, redeveloped off the coast, then stalled for a few days. Probably lake effect on the backside included in those totals.

You guys are making me depressed. I pay 5000 in taxes on a 1500 square foot home on a 1/3 acre. House cost 120k. I'm getting killed.

It was absolutely a once in a lifetime event and one I had envisioned could happen for decades; yet I wasnt sure I'd ever be alive to see it let alone be right in it, so yeah, that was truly epic! I was only there for about 10 inches of it, but it fell in about 4 hours during the middle of a game so that made it extremely unique. In terms of awesomeness it ranks very high, in terms of raw snowfall not as crazy at least while I was there

That Wednesday (11/7) storm that has been lurking around on the models has the potential for some damaging winds. A really nice storm track and deepening quickly. Would love to see that start locking in.

Nice list of storms BW. Aside from the 12/1/10 storm, I am very familiar with all of those storms. All great events. I was at least in the Buffalo area back in those days. The December 9-12, 1995 was also very significant in solidifying my interest in meteorology. By chance I was at my Grandmas house in West Seneca for that storm., it felt like we were being buried alive!.

Um no. Give me snow, even if it only last a few hours. What is your basis behind the more rain the better in the fall? How about this, just give us interesting weather. If its going to rain, give me storms and flooding. If its going to snow, make it intense and deep. If its going to be windy, give me gusts over 60.

Thats wishful thinking, it seems like it always needs one last cut and tuneup somewhere around Thanksgiving regardless of what kind of weather we get in November. And yup to the snowblower tune up, that was on the list this past weekend. I hate old carburetors, but I won the battle this time around!

I would like to see the radar loops from when this "tornado" happened. If the parent cell from this storm came off the lake I have to assume this was just some amped up waterspout as lake induced instability was likely cranking out a ton of spouts over the lake. This cell just happened to maintain some rotation once inland an dropped this hyrbid spout. This certainly wasnt a standard 50K foot tall supercell.

If the lower elevations or nearly anywhere gets 2 inches of snow there will be some tree issues. Trees in the ROC area have just started to change and are still fully leafed out. Would certainly be an interesting and early first significant accumulation. It's been many years since I've seen accumulating snow in ROC before November.

Still very early in the season. First flakes aren't all that exciting in October. First measurable snow is whole different story. This board will light up once we get into Mid November if there are legit chances.

Couple little rogue cells poppin tonight. Lots of lightning out over the lake. Saw this little hail spike on the radar.

I completely agree with this. Virginia was never really in the cross-hairs. Completely unnecessary to evacuate them.

whoa, that is really impressive. That is the earliest snow I've ever heard of in the 'dacks. Thanks for posting.

Florence remnants getting closer to a nice phase with that passing trough early next week. Would probably bring some gusty winds and heavy downpours. Hoping we can keep that trend up. Also a good trend for the south as it keeps her moving pretty much the whole time and reduces the flood risk.

I agree, seems far more likely it will stay out to sea, potentially affecting Bermuda. That said, the F storms have a knack of whacking the Carolina's..... IE Fran and Floyd. I would love to see Florence roar into the Carolinas as a major hurricane and steam up this way. Just give me some decent winds and a couple inches of tropical rain......there hasnt been any exciting weather in my backyard since the windstorm the first week of May. I need something, I'm dying here.

I get it man, working outside in this **** isn't easy. I'm a fairly involved hobbyist beekeeper. You can't imagine how hot it gets working hives in a bee suit for a few hours. Downright dangerous.

I guess that leaves only me and BW as fans of this heat and humidity. It's intense but I love it. Just feels so warm and inviting outside. Here's hoping it lasts until October 1st and then we go right into a hard fall.

Dewpoint of 76 in the ROC right now, might be the high point of the summer.

Is it just me or is there a major typo in this write up? The above legend says that Syracuse had 577 hours of dewpoints above 70. But then down below in the write up it says: "Even broken down into hours where the dew points have exceeded 70° is impressive. Syracuse averages 135 hours of 70°+ dew points a year. This summer (through August 19th) we are at 90 hours! The previous high was in 1973 with 343 hours which is far back as we have hourly records." Where the hell do they get 90 hours and why would that deserve and exclamation point? 90 hours is less than the normal average of 135. If they had said that Syracuse had 577 hours, that would make sense. So which is it? Why are articles so poorly written and edited. Overall the whole article loses direction with glaring typos that contradict the main point.

This makes me so happy. That stupid "record" was so obviously bogus from day 1. There is still hope in this world.