DeltaT13

Expecting to see our sunny morning fade into some scattered snow showers soon as the winds are shifting now.  The wind has been roaring today too with good mixing from all the sunshine.  King city radar looking good even with synoptic moisture drying up.  

https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr

10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Why can't it set up right here when it's snow?!? 

 

If that band keeps intensifying the way it appears to be right now, you might get some dynamic cooling in the heart of it and you'll get some snow/graupel.  I probably should have chased this thing....

On 11/7/2018 at 1:13 PM, southbuffalowx said:

I'm not sure if you could consider that a true synoptic event. If it wasn't for the lakes, there would not have been much of a storm. Here's the event synopsis from the 2016 winter summary.

A deep area of low pressure slowly traveled across southern Quebec over the weekend of the 19th and 20th. This system transported Atlantic moisture over the Eastern Great Lakes that fed abundant moisture into bands of lake effect snow that fell southeast of the Lower Great Lakes on a cold northwest flow. Nearly a foot of snow fell in spots southeast of Lake Erie, while more widespread amounts of a foot to a foot and a half fell from the Genesee Valley to the Northern Finger Lakes region. Across the southern Tug Hill region upwards to two feet of snow fell from this system.

Here is the summary for the 2013 synoptic event I just mentioned. 

A synoptic low brought widespread snow late on the 26th and through Wednesday the 27th. This storm brought several inches of snow, with upwards of a half a foot of snow found across the Genesee Valley and Eastern Lake Ontario region, and near a foot across the hills well south of Buffalo.

 

I meant to give you credit for this correction.  I looked back in my weather journal and found this entry I made.  Still an awesome storm... even though many of us seem to have forgotten about it, myself included. 

"A large lee side low formed over the plains this past week.  This storm deepened into the first blizzard of the year over the upper plains.  This storm then undercut a weak ridge and began to fill.  A large and nearly subtropical low was stationary offshore of New Jersey.  This large sub tropical low was slowly absorbed by the large dying winter storm crossing the lakes.  Both storms finally phased in Eastern NY/Southern Quebec On Sunday the 20th.  The storm rapidly deepened to 985mb before becoming stacked.  An enormous and nearly endless supply of wrap around moisture was pulled around the storm with an amazing precip cutoff in WNY.  This moisture combined with 850 temps of nearly -10 to -14 created intense and long lasting lake enhanced snows SE of the lakes.  Boundary temps were questionable at the beginning of storm but eventually my backyard dropped into upper 20's under heaviest snow and accumulations quickly piled up.  Buffalo received less than a half inch.  Rochester recorded 14.8 inches even though it melted, compacted and settled tremendously so much that there was never really more than 6-8 inches on the ground.  A Georgian bay connection was critical to priming the air for the western counties.  Other places around the Eastern end of lake Ontario picked up from 2-5 feet of snow.  This storm was considered one of the largest early season snow storms for our area in recorded history.  Winds were also very strong and lasted for nearly 3 days.  Gusts into the 40's and 50's were common."

17 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

42.5 degrees here. Not a good feeling about this. Feel like the cold earlier held on a bit longer than forecasted but once the temp finally broke 33 degrees which it stayed until mid afternoon, it definitely warmed up quite a bit. Might have the band set up right over us but it's gonna be all liquid for at least the next 5-6 hours. 

At least its a nice strong reponse out of the gates.  I think it will change to snow quicker than you think but actual accumulation will be slow with a very warm early season ground.   

We had a synoptic storm on Thanksgiving eve a few years back, perhaps 2012?  That storm dropped a fair amount of snow if I remember correctly.   The CF6s only got back 5 years (which is soooo stupid) so I can't check easily right now.    

35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Ok fellow weenies...i know we've had our fair share of LES events in November but when is the last significant synoptic storm we've had in November??? I'm struggling to remember one!!!

November 20-21, 2016.  Rochester got 12-15 inches of snow.  It was a large storm that came through the lakes, redeveloped off the coast, then stalled for a few days.   Probably lake effect on the backside included in those totals. 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Depends where u live. i pay 4000 a year on a total of 4100 sq foot (including finished basemet/attick) home with 3.5 acres. my in-laws pay 9000 a year in nj to get not even half that lol I moved to ny state because of the property taxes haha

Pay in NY state is actually not bad imo, where else in the NE do fast food workers get 12-13 an hr lol 

You guys are making me depressed.  I pay 5000 in taxes on a 1500 square foot home on a 1/3 acre.  House cost 120k.   I'm getting killed.

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How does last years Lake effect storm during the Bills game rank? That was a once in a lifetime event right there. Totals were high too, some 30". 

It was absolutely a once in a lifetime event and one I had envisioned could happen for decades; yet I wasnt sure I'd ever be alive to see it let alone be right in it, so yeah, that was truly epic!  I was only there for about 10 inches of it, but it fell in about 4 hours during the middle of a game so that made it extremely unique.  In terms of  awesomeness it ranks very high, in terms of raw snowfall not as crazy at least while I was there

That Wednesday (11/7) storm that has been lurking around on the models has the potential for some damaging winds.  A really nice storm track and deepening quickly.  Would love to see that start locking in.  

Nice list of storms BW.  Aside from the 12/1/10 storm, I am very familiar with all of those storms.   All great events.  I was at least in the Buffalo area back in those days.   The December 9-12,  1995 was also very significant in solidifying my interest in meteorology.  By chance I was at my Grandmas house in West Seneca for that storm., it felt like we were being buried alive!.

44 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Why we looking for snow before Thanksgiving anyway? If it does snow it's going to fall and be gone in 3 days anyway who wants that, certainly not me! Bring the rain, the more rain in the fall the better!

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Um no.  Give me snow, even if it only last a few hours.  What is your basis behind the more rain the better in the fall?   

How about this, just give us interesting weather.  If its going to rain, give me storms and flooding.  If its going to snow, make it intense and deep.  If its going to be windy, give me gusts over 60.  

3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

32 degrees with a nice thick frost here, I second that about that grass, hopefully I can cut it one last time today and be done for the year and get the snowblower tuned up!

Thats wishful thinking, it seems like it always needs one last cut and tuneup somewhere around Thanksgiving regardless of what kind of weather we get in November.  

And yup to the snowblower tune up, that was on the list this past weekend.  I hate old carburetors, but I won the battle this time around!

On 10/20/2018 at 11:48 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

That happens all the time though. We get cold fronts here where it goes from 70s to 20s in a few hours with lake effect bands coming behind it dumping feet of snow. What happened today is extremely rare. I didn't think you could get a supercell like what happened over West Seneca and snow in the same day. It has to only happened a handful of times. 

I would like to see the radar loops from when this "tornado" happened.  If the parent cell from this storm came off the lake I have to assume this was just some amped up waterspout as lake induced instability was likely cranking out a ton of spouts over the lake.  This cell just happened to maintain some rotation once inland an dropped this hyrbid spout. This certainly wasnt a standard 50K foot tall supercell.

14 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

KBUF:
A secondary cold front will usher in colder temperatures Wednesday morning. Lake induced instability will increase as 850mb temperatures fall back near -5 deg C and lake effect rain showers are likely with enhancement southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this time, the mid-level trough will promote a connection from upstream lakes. Lake effect showers will persist into Wednesday night with an enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool night is expected with surface temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s and even the 20s at higher elevations. Rain may start to mix in and possibly even change over to snow at some locations.

I think this has the possibility to drop our first trace/2" in areas of highest elevations in CNY. S. Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Otsego has the best chances of seeing snow in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame as they have the highest bumps but it'll be a close call in the lower elevations for sure.



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If the lower elevations or nearly anywhere gets 2 inches of snow there will be some tree issues.  Trees in the ROC area have just started to change and are still fully leafed out.  Would certainly be an interesting and early first significant accumulation.  It's been many years since I've seen accumulating snow in ROC before November.  

14 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Im kinda shocked this thread isn't at least discussing the prospects for the first flakes this weekend over the tug and interior western southern tier. And Monday-Wednesday timeframe looks to bring an actual cold airmass with 40's for highs if the GFS has been correct the past 8 runs or so.

Still very early in the season.  First flakes aren't all that exciting in October.  First measurable snow is whole different story.  This board will light up once we get into Mid November if there are legit chances.  

Couple little rogue cells poppin tonight. Lots of lightning out over the lake. Saw this little hail spike on the radar. 

2 hours ago, oldnorthstate said:

virginia had a mandatory evacuation starting at 8 AM on Tuesday.

 

think about how ridiculous this is and how this impacts future storms and when there actually may be trouble.  

I completely agree with this.  Virginia was never really in the cross-hairs.  Completely unnecessary to evacuate them.  

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Snowed on whiteface mountain yesterday. I just climbed this in August. 

 

whoa, that is really impressive.  That is the earliest snow I've ever heard of in the 'dacks.  Thanks for posting.  

Florence remnants getting closer to a nice phase with that passing trough early next week.  Would probably bring some gusty winds and heavy downpours.  Hoping we can keep that trend up.  Also a good trend for the south as it keeps her moving  pretty much the whole time and reduces the flood risk.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It will be interesting to see if Florence doesn't go out to sea. I'd say 90/10 ratio right now it goes north up into the Atlantic vs landfall. It's already pretty far north for there to be a landfall historically speaking. 

I agree, seems far more likely it will stay out to sea, potentially affecting Bermuda.  That said, the F storms have a knack of whacking the Carolina's.....  IE Fran and Floyd.  I would love to see Florence roar into the Carolinas as a major hurricane and steam up this way.  Just give me some decent winds and a couple inches of tropical rain......there hasnt been any exciting weather in my backyard since the windstorm the first week of May.  I need something, I'm dying here.  

3 hours ago, WNash said:

I spent college summers on a drywall crew, and growing up in the southeast, we learned that humid days were the worst. Your body just can't cool down - you sweat and sweat, and hardly anything evaporates. One of my favorite things about typical Buffalo summers is that a spell of extreme humidity is typically short, with several high dewpoint periods during the summer interspersed with shots of more dry air from the north. Honestly, one of the most appealing things about summers in Buffalo is that it's so pleasant to spend time outside. Home gardens are far more well-tended, and far more attractive, in Buffalo than in southeastern cities, where people just pay $15 or so every week for a guy with a zero turn to come in and cut every blade of grass to a stub. But this summer in Buffalo has been much more like Gulf weather, and between the low precip and the extreme humidity, gardens around here are looking pretty shabby this summer. I get it - I'm glad I work inside nowadays, but between the relentless dews in the upper 60s or above make it unpleasant to be outside for long, even to work at a hobby like gardening.

I get it man, working outside in this **** isn't easy.  I'm a fairly involved hobbyist beekeeper.  You can't imagine how hot it gets working hives in a bee suit for a few hours.  Downright dangerous.  

28 minutes ago, Revracer800 said:

I was tired of the heat and humidity a month and a half ago haha. 

This humidity is horrible. So ready for fall and cooler weather. 

I guess that leaves only me and BW as fans of this heat and humidity.  It's intense but I love it.  Just feels so warm and inviting outside.  Here's hoping it lasts until October 1st and then we go right into a hard fall.  

Dewpoint of 76 in the ROC right now, might be the high point of the summer.  

On 8/20/2018 at 11:46 AM, wolfie09 said:

SYRACUSE (WSYR-TV) - The summer of 2018 in Syracuse is now the most humid in at least 45 years! 

As of August 19th, Syracuse has felt dew points at or exceeding 70 degrees for 36 days!
Dew point temperature is a way to measure the amount of moisture in the air. The higher the dew point the higher the moisture content in the air. In general, the higher the dew point the more uncomfortable it feels.

While everyone has their own sense of what a ‘humid’ day is, most central New Yorkers notice it feeling humid when the dew point creeps into the mid 60s. Dew points in the 70s usually signals a change to more tropical-like conditions.

Since 1997, the most days during the June through August period with a dew point of 70 or better prior to this summer was 32 days set in 2010 prior to this summer. The average over the past 20 years is 19 days...2018 has exceeded both!

Even broken down into hours where the dew points have exceeded 70° is impressive. Syracuse averages 135 hours of 70°+ dew points a year. This summer (through August 19th) we are at 90 hours! The previous high was in 1973 with 343 hours which is far back as we have hourly records.

That's about 4 times greater than normal and the most humid summer in at least 45 years!

To put more perspective on this, Atlanta, known for its hot and humid summers, averages 570 hours with the dew point 70°+. So safe to say, this has been an Atlanta-like summer with regards to humidity at least!

For as humid as it has been here in Syracuse it still pales in comparison to what it typically is like along the Gulf coast....

 

Houston: 3432 hours
New Orleans: 4017 hours
Miami: 4165 hours

While it has been more humid this summer, Syracuse is still not ranked as one of the top 10 warmest summer's on record.  As of August 19th we were ranked as 12th warmest with 11 days above 90 degrees. No daily record high temperatures have been set in Syracuse this summer. Guess it goes to show you, it's not the heat, it's the humidity

Is it just me or is there a major typo in this write up?  The above legend says that Syracuse had 577 hours of dewpoints above 70.  But then down below in the write up it says:

"Even broken down into hours where the dew points have exceeded 70° is impressive. Syracuse averages 135 hours of 70°+ dew points a year. This summer (through August 19th) we are at 90 hours! The previous high was in 1973 with 343 hours which is far back as we have hourly records."

Where the hell do they get 90 hours and why would that deserve and exclamation point?  90 hours is less than the normal average of 135.  If they had said that Syracuse had 577 hours, that would make sense.  So which is it?  Why are articles so poorly written and edited.  Overall the whole article loses direction with glaring typos that contradict the main point.  

 

40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wow! We all knew this to be true, but so many people were denying it. The measurements were taken from people not even interested in weather or meteorology. How does that even happen for a city with 100k+ people? 24 hour and monthly records remain what they were. They are completely tossing all measurements from Erie last year.  Go post that on the golden snowball on facebook.

This makes me so happy.  That stupid "record" was so obviously bogus from day 1.  There is still hope in this world.