DeltaT13

Agree but luckily roc could be spared a true whiff with some lake effect. Way too close for comfort

And so are you! Whiteface Summit has a shot at two feet all day.

Definitely an interesting night. The Monroe county fire wire is blowing up with accidents and roll overs from the icy roads. Spencerport fire truck slid off the road then the truck that came to get it slid off too. A couple places in Gates have power out but I’m not sure if it’s from ice laden branches falling on lines or cars sliding into poles. I doubt it’s from tree branches as we really don’t have all that much ice, but it starting to build up. Also saw some schools in the finger lakes have closed and Greece school is apparently on the fence. I get the feeling this layer of ice under the snow will turn tomorrow morning into mayhem.

That lines up well with the critical thickness lines.

I just got back from a week up there. I had made a post last night with some nice pics but I can’t seem to find it anywhere. It must have gotten lost in the internet ether. Conditions at Whiteface were pretty damn good considering the winter we’ve had. It was extremely painful to leave today with 15-20 inches knocking on their door

Its the Thursday and Friday time frame that are looking messy. The "good" runs continually redevelop a surface low back to the south along the front. The bad runs create a deeper primary low that rolls right up over us. 0zGFS just went the latter of the two options. There are very subtle things dictating that surface low position in round 2. Will be a nailbiter for days I'm sure. Wednesday looks decent though

It's looking good to me so far. I can't believe its holding serve still

I understand that, but the first time we have something to look forward to and here come the debbie downers to poop on it. Good grief, let us have one 6 hour period with some hope. lolz

If those don't look good to you I don't know what would make you happy. The best ensembles show 12-18 inches at lower elevations

Jesus, 18z GFS run just trolled us the hardest it has all winter. Days and days of snow for the ROC and 'dacks. I'm not taking the bait yet, but god damn what a run.

I feel for you man. Next weekend is either going to be a massive snowstorm or a complete washout. That’s some risky shit right there

Well the midweek snow for the ‘dacks is waning but I’d rather have no snow than rain. So I guess I’ll take it for now. Impressive model uncertainty for less than 5 days out.

What an exciting time to be in the adirondacks. I'll be riding the hairy edge of some decent shots of precip. Hoping elevation keeps me in the game.

Well actually I do. There is one saying. It’s for all intents and purposes. You can’t accidentally type intensive purposes. No need to defend the guy like he’s your father. Let’s get back to being disappointed by the lack of winter.

That isnt a typo, that isnt a spelling mistake. That is a complete misunderstanding of a saying. Intensive purposes doesn't make any sense at all. What is an intensive purpose, lolz.

Did that idiot really say “all intensive purposes”. Good grief. What a moron. It’s all intents and purposes.

That’s all she wrote for the Wednesday storm. The only question now is how warm do we actually get. Looks like we could make a run at 60+ if that trend continues.

Well the GFS held serve on the overunning/open wave storm next Wednesday, but to be honest, being in the sweet spot 7 days out is the worst case scenario. Nothing ever holds that long. I've given up on getting a storm for my trip, now I just want it to stay below freezing/no rain. I can deal with the lack of real snow. Just let me have some normal relatively ice free groomers.

It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks. You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get *NOTHING*! You lose!

Yeah, I shouldn’t have called this a miller b earlier. Just a really nice wave and over running.

I'll try to be an optimistic here. At face value, it looks ugly, but there is definitely indications of a much more defined trough in the east going forward. A lot of storm are just missing South of us which is way better than cutting through the lakes. At least there is a chance for these to trend in a direction to bring us snow. Also, that strong cutter foretasted for earlier next week has really evolved over the last 24 horus, it now develops a strong wave south of us that is almost a Miller B type hit for us. A few more moves in the direction and a super warm torch turns into a sizeable snow storm. We went from this at noon yesterday To this today at noon. At least trending the right way.

I actually read quite it about this last week. The iguanas have become a huge problem down there as the poster above mentioned. A solid cold snap will actually kill a good amount but apparently it’s been several years and they’ve really built up large populations. Temps in the 40s send them into hibernation, but after as little as eight hours at those temps they actually start to die. The pythons however can usually ride out cold snaps in burrows.

It's over, the Euro was a complete fish storm on the 12z. The following system is rain up to Hudson Bay. Next week can already be written off. At this point, I'm just hoping we get one Monster March Blizzard, which is actually climatologically favorable.

Yeah, but its the ICON. soo......

Weekend storm is out to sea on the 0z. But that run was a bit odd with two lows forming off hatteras.