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Everything posted by DeltaT13

  1. Pounding pretty good here on the SW side. We have about 2 inches now with an inch in the past hour. This is about as good as it gets for this area.
  2. Chautauqua ridge getting absolutely clobbered from a radar standpoint. Looks like 2-3 inches and hour with possible thundersnow. Niagara county also had some very heavy looking returns for a few hours (Poor NWS can't win, why they wouldnt just drop an advisory is beyond me.). Winds are starting to roar outside, waiting on the first squalls. We had a quick coating so far but it has since melted.
  3. Starting to look Winter Storm Warning-ish to me too. Winds could be very strong for a long duration. I'm so wary of getting my hopes up but things really look good for a solid lake response. I'll definitely be chasing into Wayne County tomorrow. I havent been this excited about a storm in a long time!
  4. Well the snow tires are on and I must say I'm pretty excited about this storm. I can't say I've seen many NW wind events this early in the season with fairly significant cold air in play. I'm really not sure how Ontario will respond. The high winds and short fetch will certainly limit things, however the very warm lake might make up for that. Wrap around moisture will obviously be key and some of the runs really hold that 850mb low in a nice position for the South shore for a solid 24-30 hours. That said, I am also still skeptical of how much synoptic moisture this thing can really bring. I'm guessing we at least see area wide Winter Weather advisories for Sat night through Monday with possible wind advisories for the counties bordering Ontario. There is also the possibility for lake effect snow advisories on the South shore through Monday and I also wouldnt be surprised to see some localized higher amounts in the higher elevations of the fingerlakes. The 'Dacs will likely be under winter storm watches by Tomorrow PM. Anyway, pretty interesting storm, especially because the first storm of the season is always a little more fun. So much potential for a decent hit or major heartbreaker...... Buffalo - 3.1" Rochester - 4.5" Syracuse - 7.8" Jamestown - 10" (This was supposed to say 10"!)
  5. Nice to see model runs trending in our favor as we close in on this complex storm. The interplay between the East Coast cutoff low and the approaching longwave trough will certainly be interesting. How good is the sampling off the east coast in regards to strength and placement of that cutoff low? Something we typically don't have to worry about. Anyway, it's nice to see a deep, strengthening low pressure just to our east with fairly significant wrap around moisture and relatively cold 850's. I'm not in a prime spot on the South shore of Ontario but I'm feeling excited. It's going to be tough to get the boundary temps low enough in my neck of the woods initially but it'll be close. Sunday into Monday will certainly be raw compared to what we have been experiencing. Perhaps I'll put the snow tires on this weekend.
  6. We just got our first hard freeze in the ROC this morning. The birdbath had thick ice on it. I'm expecting the leaves to finally start making moves but it's pretty much the latest I've ever seen it.
  7. I can confirm the sloppy inch in the ROC. A lot of trees were sagging pretty low this morning. It wouldnt have taken much more for some branches and power lines to start coming down. A nice early start to the season!
  8. Completely agree. This is a classic drought buster. A month later and this thing has all the earmarks of a major snowstorm. It's really a beautiful long duration fall storm, I'm absolutely loving it. I'm really interested to see how much energy that tropical disturbance pumps into this low, perhaps it blows up a little deeper than expected. The South shore of Lake Ontario is already flirting with some pretty high end winds if the current models verify. High Winds from the north on very saturated ground with trees that still have a lot of foliage sounds a little dicey. Sporadic power outages seem possible tomorrow. 2.56" as of 1215pm
  9. 12z GFS is now hinting at possible first flakes for nearly everyone. Nice little wound up storm with a front end prolonged heavy rain threat, followed by some low end winds with a decent lake response. I foresee a lot of graupel in someones future. Latest run was colder but didnt grab as much tropical moisture until further east of us A very nice run for some legit fall weather.
  10. I think its about to enter a period of rapid intensification. Extremely deep "standing" convection is building on the Northern side and is chock full of lighting. The ragged eye is quickly contracting and gaining symmetry. OUtflow looks great on SE Quandrant. Get ready... Nassau is going to get clobbered.
  11. yeah i realized i should have gone to the SNE forum. Also nice to see buffalo discussing lake effect snow on the backside.
  12. Another nice run for very high impact event from SC to SNE. Major questions with regards to phasing, but so much potential, it reminds me of Sandy in many ways. In regards to WNY, a high wind threat exists with some backend flakes as per the 12z gfs. Lets keep this trending west and strong. Exciting stuff. Still 5 days out, but this is one of the most exciting things we've had to track for months! Where is the enthusiasm? Start up the new thread Buffalowx
  13. 12z gfs is a pretty solid run for us. I really dont want t get my hopes up this far out but its such a perfect track for high impact event throughout the whole northeast.
  14. I think KROC will be up to 19 90 degree days after today. The most ever for us. It's been a real steamer so far.
  15. It's real alright....really stupid. I mean I love Buffalo and four seasons, but they are out of their minds. I can think of hundreds or cities that have better weather.
  16. What app or website do you guys use for your lightning strike data? I used a pay subscription to an app called MyCast that worked great for nearly 8 years, however they have stopped supporting their app so now I no longer can use it. A search of other apps and the web turned up little useful alternatives. I'm willing to pay a yearly fee for this service, any info would be awesome.
  17. Still looking good for Saturday. Fingers crossed we get some feisty storms. We just need a solid few hours of sun so things can recover after the early morning MCS. "As the afternoon progresses...the combination of developing lake breeze boundaries...leftover outflow boundaries from any morning convection... and the slowly approaching cold front should all act to lift the warm and increasingly unstable airmass and generate a second round of surface- based convection that would likely last into the evening hours. Should the projected amounts of instability above actually be realized...the general west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow regime aloft and available shear profiles would likely be plenty sufficient to support the risk of some stronger to severe storms...including both some bowing structures and supercells. While strong damaging winds would be the most likely threat from these...the potential would also likely exist for some large hail...and possibly even a tornado or two."
  18. Our worst thunderstorm around here is weak compared to pretty much anywhere else in this country. Bring it on, the stronger the better. But first, it looks like some elevation dependent snow for some this weekend. Would be one of the latest snowfalls in this area that I have ever experienced (aside from the 3 foot memorial day storm that whiteface got 3 years ago, but that was extremely localized). This is the year without spring for sure, very depressing. It killed two of my bee hives that survived the winter (which is also why I have been so pissed about this crappy weather)
  19. Another 10 days of pure crap in store. Pretty soon it will be winter again. Really can't put to words how obnoxious this spring is.
  20. This is easily the schittiest spring I can remember. Just relentless garbage week after week.
  21. Indeed, the 0z run was much more appetizing than the 12z run. The ingredients are certainly there. We should get a better idea once the primary wave is actually on the west coast.
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