Typhoon Tip

Heh ...this is typical of March's in the last 10 years..  which is probably fair to say it's typical of CC era - much to eye-rollin' chagrin of those that don't exactly deny... but equivalent post pursing their lips and dosing their anuses with Preparation-H whenever they have to face it. 

We start getting one and done 65ers in a fast flow warm sectors, probably as the new order.   Maybe you'll even get 2 or 3 days at a pop... But they go back to pointless cold.   Every march since 2012 except maybe 2018 ..?  But that year did it February so take your pick.  

I guess I'm just musing that we should expect these kind of warm bursts this time of year.

We've already started getting them going back 3 weeks ago. It's been about ever 5 days.   They'll be every 3 days by the 20th... and lasting longer ... until BD season kicks off in April and winter begins...

Well... I could pretty much gamble huge sums of money this 18z operation GFS won't verify that way... It's hard to believe a 965 mb low's gonna grind along the White's cordillera,  experiencing no resistance along the way, carving out a bombogen hole < 950 mb as it buzz saws the summit off Mt Katahdin like that.  

That's like ... not going to happen.

66 

64 ... up 5 last hour.  Probably good for another 4 F on top, considering the winds are light WSW under 925 mb T of 14C ...that'd support low 70s in the 2-m actually. 

11 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Thunderstorms are mentioned in the forecast for up here

I can see that...

We got regional LI's down -2 tomorrow.  

Just now, dendrite said:

It kinda feels like one of those May mornings where we're rotting in fog ahead of the warm front until about 10am in the 50s and then it just blasts through with SW flow and continuous WAA through evening. 3pm it's mid 80s and still slowly climbing.

Exactly!  ...only like 20 F down the scale but it's really quite analogous to that. yes -

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

70F ELM and 71F PEO and 69F at ITH….my old college stomping grounds would be enjoying the faux spring day. 

That's actually a recovery of the PNA there...  Remember yesterday(this morning ) discussing how the EPO didn't look like it would relay as well, but that is actually quite a bit better than the last 2 days prior - that "might" be enough to signal there.  

It does time for a 06z/12z GFS blend ...about 168 -190 hrs. 

Just sayn' but ...there's also been a remarkably persistent tendency have the next run go out of it's way to seemingly constructively interfere with one's optimism.. .LOL...  so there's that too -

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy sh*t... it's 69F in ROC, 68F in SYR and 62F in ART.

Very warm sliver of air moving in with that dry slot... we'll see what we can punch to in New England.

It's real... 
I'm singularly impressed with how abrupt this warm frontal intrusion has either thrust into the region... or just abruptly mixed out. Probably some of both.  It was 36 at 7am here. 

You know, I was looking at the hi res vis loop, ...pissed off and disgruntled at the delay of warm arrival this morning...  Yet, you could see that granular texture in the cleared areas of eastern NY... Crispy edges to cloud debris is very summer like.   In fact, when the fog lifted here actually about 2.5 hours ago, it revealed a sky that looked like a May tapestry under alto level elevated ceilings.  But it was still just 44 F at the time though.  A splash of sun came through about 11...and it was 51 very fast. The air started to smell like summer b.o. a little... 62 with mostly sun right now. 

sorry -   It's just I think these sudden seasonal exit-entrance scenarios in the spring are fascinating.   I mean, I've seen it go from 91 to 40 in 2 hours fro BDs.... I've seen it go from 36 to 66 in a warm frontal instrusion like today.  

If we can get the NAM's RH at 700 mb to dry out a tad, tomorrow could be just as sweet.  

Buuuut...not to deb down it but it will make Tuesday that much more annoying lol.  Ah well ...

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Temps should shoot up when that dry sector punches through. At least that’s how it’s been modeled…we’ll see. 
33° and RA right now

Yup ...good call.

61 and mostly sun here out of no where.   Like walked through a door into a Narnia world compared to 2 hours ago.

36 at dawn here, with murk and fog.  61 and sun and probably heading for 65 ( classic MOS bust)  ... 

So despite my warm bust' post a while ago, it appears warm front was more delayed .. It's funny how this happens though sometimes. The warm front comes through, and it goes from a delay/busty, to correcting actually warmer than guidance.  interesitng

It's really hard to ignore the vast deconstruction of the EPO handling that's insidiously claimed the otherwise favorable look we had been erstwhile tracking.

It seems to erode ... slowly, under the radar, spanning five days ... Now, both the EPS and GEFs ( centered on day 10 ) have a dying EPO ridge receding back toward Kamchatka... with a zonal, velocity rich flow, spanning the entire hemisphere from west of the Dateline to NS.

    ( ssh...sometimes zonal flows precede subtropical ridge expansion. That's synoptic 101)

The previous "optimism" was based upon the climate behavior of -EPO's tending to fade into +PNA's... That would be a segue into a storm potential..etc..  EPS loads cold... PNA sends amplitude underneath.  Boom. 

But this has suffered ( maybe?? ) seasonal wave length - seems a bit early to make that assumption. But this is situation either way that will dump cold into Canada, but then an unattended -PNA circulation mode may not bring it south...nor serve any means to amplify... It just changes everything.  The other aspect I'm hypothesizing is that the speed/mass balancing of the hemisphere screwed mechanically ... like it tunneled under and abandoned.

Both operational Euro and GFS ( 00z ), average about 3.5 day periodicity between cold waves and warm sector oscillations.   With nothing but different hobby engagement worthy events separating, through day 10. 

Honestly... I did post reticence to the March mid month period last week.  I cited the fact that EPO signals may not carry the same telecon correlation at this time of year, as they do DJF.  It's just that the PNA aspect intervened and sort distracted the look ... Either way, the EPO is not at this time, modeled to subsequently lead a +PNA of sufficient anything..

Nothing's happened yet.  We're still going to have plenty of late season cold loaded nearby over Canada.  And the 06z GFS ...which I'm tossing pending anything from anyone or source that concurs..., shows if nothing else, 'how' it can happen in a butt bang pattern.

There is a mid and U/A clearing punching in from the WSW though...  Roughly SYR-PIT at dawn and it's leading edge is already knocking on the door of ALB.  

I wondering, when it unlids eastward if it just exposes this static cling on the bottom, or if it arrives with a t-spike and some breeze.

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It feels tropical walking out to a temp above freezing. 
 

33°

Warm sector bust going on today though ... 

I haven't been paying much attention to the details, admittedly, but the general synoptics offered by most guidance I've seen ...didn't appeal like we'd be stuck with the "spilled latex on the highway" look on hi res satellite.  

Sometimes ( hypothesis ...) I've noticed this about/when in these high velocity flow scenarios, where the warm advection takes place, but seems to perhaps be 'too fast' - it out paces the Eikman (ch spl) drag effect?   That cold lower saturated fog miasma, needs some special scouring the sun is just slightly too weak to do on it's own, yet the sounding is protecting the surface.  It's almost like a stain on satellite. 

Whatever it is the strands this paste in the lowest 50 mb of the atmosphere ..it doesn't help that we're drilling mid level cloud swaths over top, either.  

9 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I am working on stocking up with food and things like that. 

A question about the situation is how likely will we always have electricity. 

If we have electricity, then Rice and Breed are a thing. You simply need salt, sugar, yeast and flour. How much does it cost to use electricity to bake said bread? Because if you don't count the cost of the energy to bake bread, you are talking about 45 cents for the ingredients. Then there is baking a few loaves of bread at once. That helps. 

Otherwise, we just filled our tanks with gas and we have begun stocking up on canned food of varying types and saltine crackers. 

I don't have the following ability because of my living arrangements but if I did, I would probably have a few 55 gallon drums of gas stowed someplace TBH, but stowed safely so to not be a fire risk?

Gas doesn't have a very good shelf life.  The volatile BTEX compounds the make up gas are weakly bonded - one of the reasons why it is so useful in combustion. Combustion is just a sped up oxidation process where H --> is added the reaction  ... gas + H + 02 -->  C02 and H2O, and any impurities ..etc... blah blah.  But the weak bonds mean it will tend to separate, on its own, without heat.

Anyway, one would have to be careful and rather technical in how gasoline is stored for it loses its potency.  55 gallons filling a drum is a lot of a mass, and by virtue of weight and density, it would have a longer "half life" .. The storage facility would have to be properly engineered and subsequently maintained, or eventually .. you may end up with 55 gallon drums of a carcinogenic sludge

4 hours ago, Hoth said:

It has been a popular western delusion for a century that if we only figure out what's bothering some dictator or other, we can mollify them and there will be peace. The most notable analog would be Hitler. With the idea of renewed war anathema after WWI, Britain and France were perfectly willing to supplicate and appease the Germans. First, they let him ignore Versailles and rearm, then they let him militarize the Rhineland. Then, thinking that once he had reunited German-speaking peoples he would settle down, they looked the other way as he took the Sudetenland and moved on Czechoslovakia and Austria. It took Poland to be the final line in the sand that drew them in.

Russia and the U.S. were pretty natural adversaries after the Bolsheviks took power. You could not have two more polar systems. Ours, based on guaranteed individual liberties, popular government, private property and a free market economy, clashes intensely with the Soviet communist model, little individual liberty, collectivization, no private property, total subservience to the State. Make no mistake that the USSR was every bit the Evil Empire, menacing not only the West, but also tens of millions of its own people. It's funny that you mention Putin being upset with us for not recognizing Russia's sacrifice in the war. I'm sure in Russian schools they neglect to mention that initially the USSR and the Nazis entered a non-aggression pact and agreed to divvy up eastern Europe between them, that is until Hitler unleashed his surprise eastern offensive. And staying in eastern Europe after the war ended certainly did nothing to soften western feelings, especially since the USSR's stated goal was to make the whole world communist.

Ever since the collapse of the USSR, Russia has had but a shadow of its former influence or economic might. Its GDP is roughly half that of the state of California. It is quite important in a few areas, petroleum products, wheat, potash, ammonium nitrate, rare earth metals etc., but it is hardly an economic power of the first rank. Moreover, the wealth generated by these industries is in many cases controlled by a small number of individuals who fought and bribed and outright stole control of these industries after the USSR fell. Russia gets more respect than is owing chiefly due to its legacy nuclear arsenal, which it waves carelessly about like a kid that's found his dad's gun. That arsenal is serving as an umbrella to let Putin get away with things that might've otherwise brought about direct intervention. He has this perverse 19th century empire-building, or rebuilding, mindset and seems intent on reuniting all former Russian territories under his banner. This is wholly contrary to the international order presided over by the U.S. after WWII ended and a massive threat to peace globally.

Putin is not rational and likely will only respect force, just like Hitler (who was frustrated that France and England weren't keen to fight at first). Hopefully intense sanctions will strangle his economy so much that some civic-minded Russian will pop him and earn the world's undying gratitude, but I wouldn't bet on it. I myself am preparing for the likelihood of considerable turmoil later in the year. Even if we somehow dodge a direct war with Russia, food prices will likely continue to skyrocket, crop yields may drop due to the loss of imported fertilizer supplies from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and Phosphorus supplies get swallowed up by the Chinese. I wouldn't be surprised by a reprise of the Arab Spring, and considerable upheaval caused by inflation even in wealthy western nations. There was that joke circulating about 2022 being "2020 Too", and I can't thinking that may be apropos at this moment. Instead of pestilence, it may be war, financial upheaval, inflation and famine instead.

The oligarchs will have covert ops involved at some point.   Bank on it -

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPO kind of retrogrades back northwest a bit whereas on guidance earlier this week it was folding the block over eastward into a PNA burst….so I agree the pristine look has degraded. There’s still a western ridge spike but it’s not shooting up into NW territories now….it’s more constrained to the CONUS and maybe southern BC. That’s still enough for a potential system but it requires more shortwave cooperation than those rare synoptic beasts that are almost predestined to happen when you get long waves syncing up. 

 

Yeah ... this is basically agreeing with my coverage.  Losing that PNA relay is frustrating.  Was really good before. It could return.  Obviously you know this but signals can 'pulse' as they approach in the guidance.  It's just hard to know if that is the case in March -

I still think there could be a system at the other side of the EPO ...  I mean, there will be cold near by and the flow may relax - that's more of a bowling frame-up probability so tfwiw. 

I don't know about the mid month aspect anymore..   Not feelin' it on this one. 

The indicators are dubious at best, and the -EPO may not be enough to do it alone at this time of year.  We need the -EPO to relay/lag into a +PNA rise, and there is one but it is not very large... That doesn't send the best signal down stream...  Plus, when we are soaking 40 N with near equinox sun now, radiative forcing modulates more and more.  I'm seeing the models correcting some of the cold air mass cores a little already..

So you know we've had blizzards through April and we may very well... I'm not talking about bowling season and/or catching a break on a lucky stream sync.  Those are separate means for getting it done.  I'm speaking mainly to the "orderly H.A." idea.

The GEFs ensemble mean has two roll-out warm-ups if anything, between the 13th and the 20th, and this matches reasonably well with the operational version.   The whole American model system wants an oscillatory pattern in a progressive/longitudinal flow type.

There are a minority of members that have more commitment to something on the EC... They are mangled Miller Bs or smeared Miller As. Arriving from different means that appear to be more typical long lead noise.  

My previous optimism was based upon the +PNA emerging as the -EPO block subside ...not an atypical relay.  But the latter doesn't appear to be emerging robust enough to force the correction event.  I remember one year it stayed usually cold in Canad almost to the middle of April.  What year was that? End up with NP floods when it warmed finally in May. But not much cold anomaly really came south of the Dakotas that year.. You know, it's possible we load Canada with -EPO dump and don't get much going S of the 45 L other than what the GEFs is showing..

Ugh...seeing everything through a neg-head lens.  

I hate the pal sun under milk sky days in the 30s with corn snow on the ground you get at this time of year.   It just is too uninspired, nor comfortable. 

I don't think this warm up Tomorrow and Monday is all that great either, not if leaning against 30 to 40 mph wind gusts ... Even if it's 60 that's going to be A-nnoying.  

One little interesting aspect, the LI drops to -2 regionally on Monday.

22 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Trying to get away from American politics, I do think on a larger humanity-level scale, a lot of humans throughout history love a strong leader regardless of the message.  Not to romanticize people like Putin, but many humans respond well to a very assertive, firm, unwavering leader regardless of the message.  Throughout history, people have desired firm structure to their lives and followed people who provide that, even if the message may be misguided (or very misguided).  Certain personalities of people excel at it... and they exert a strong influence over their followers.  They make their subjects feel part of something larger, even if it leads to atrocities.

Almost every military around the world has and continues to exploit that "follow the leader" and heavy structure desire of many humans to be a part of something larger.  The end goal can be very suspect but it's psychologically fascinating to see how large groups of people can be shaped by a strong leader regardless of message.

Pure anthropology. 

Human species greatest natural instinct is the tendency, if not dependency, to social hierarchical command structures. 

What you’re observing … throughout history, are masses unwittingly compelled, gravitating toward that paradigm - perhaps like moth to a flame.  Outmoded instinct it may be, for it now clashes with a reality that despots in alpha roles are vastly more than merely assholes. They've become death, destroyers of worlds. 
 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/03/04/mikhail-khodorkovsky-putin-intv-dos-santos-ovn-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/

...anyway... I maintain my original take on this whole thing.

We're not dealing with a "foreign sovereign agency of war times" type of adversary.

You're dealing with a unknown vector... a mad-man that is enabled by group psychosis ( think 'Third Reich'), who/that is/are decided/ing, in disconnect, what is going to be righteous. He/they possessing enough arsenal to complete the present extinction level event.  

they have decided they are not going to lose this thing 

This needs a artful  ...implying among other techniques, covert ops solution.

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really need the GFS or GEM to be right....the EURO is just miderable.

... it always is with that f'n model.

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad we couldn't lock in the GGEM....like 2 feet of snow next weekend from 2 systems. What a clown model that is.

Yeah wrote about this an hour ago ...not that run, per se, but the fact that the GFS is smearing/interfering a D7-ish Miller A with what appears to be a half-assed attempt at a -EPO Lake cutter.  

I think the GFS is suffering from a speed bias ...one that it has at all times, but by virtue of operating in a speeding field...it hides that propensity - it's little complex.  It's like the fast gradient soaked hemisphere "enables" the GFS ...  anyway, I think the GFS is too fast.

Conversely, the GGEM tend to curve surfaces too much in that range... so to does the Euro.   They both seem to get to that subtle bias, different ways though... (different discussion).   But the take away is that a decimal-slower look would keep these features into their own identities, so we end up with a glob Miller A of minoring impact in the Euro and GGEM... with the GFS just one big exploited ravioli...  

The GGEM has a much more H.A. correction event look, after any would-be Miller A. That's essentially the Ides bomb I mused yesterday, really.   The Euro opts for a just a big intense polar front with unending cold implied, with not much else resulting from these index wiggles...

Meanwhile, the GFS' dailies seem to hearken seasonal change ... It's not "sustaining" warmth - I agree there. But it is bulging more hydrostatic thickness and then residually leaving them at higher latitudes post fronts out through 360 hours.  It's an aspect it started doing yesterday and still is...It "might" be seasonal stressing/radiative forcing ...who knows.   

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Any snow on the horizon ?

Depends on one sub(sub-forum)

~ day 4.5 there is a minor impact potential for mainly central New England.   It's another needle thread system - what's new over the past 10 years..  So where it snows, it will be narrow latitude.   The Euro is farthest N, the GGEM is sorta between, the GFS is S enough to bring blue snow type all the way to the Pike.  But neither of these solutions would implicated NYC area with any snow.   Of course, ...that is as of 00z suite of runs, and there is 4.5 days it's possible they are all wrong.  

~ day 7, a Miller A of weak to moderate scope moves up the EC.  That system is more coherent in the GEFs ensemble mean than the operational version, which seems to be smearing it together with an -EPO Lakes cutter a day and half later, which heralds in the much ballyhooed mid month cold.   The Euro and GGEM depict more separation between those, with more individual distinction.  That allows their version of a weak to moderate Miller A to swath chilly spring rains up the EC, ...where eventually it runs into isothermal soundings (+) or (-) 1 either side of 0C at 850 -925 mb ...Strictly adhering, it's mixy and cat paws for SNE with snow N, but at this range in the spring, blue events always look like cat paws. Which at this time of year that signals the blue snow scenario ( < 10::1 cake).  It'll take a couple days -worth of runs to radar which modeling has the better idea.  I can see biased reasons for both to be wrong.

mm... the 18z run is clearly being exerted by seasonal change there.    The run is having difficulty sustaining a cold look, despite the -EPO/.. loading in the D6-12 range. There are three cold inserts that are brief ( < 36 hours), that roll-out synoptically, replaced with warm bulges to almost 40 N.  

Not sure it's right - in fact, any 18z GFS run on an island is low confidence to put it nicely... However ... recent springs over the last 10 years tell you not to doubt a warm bulge just the same.  And, at some point we will seasonally flash over the hemisphere with dullard the gradients.  I thought that would be on the other side of the EPO...?    This run seems to just be an oscillatory look - event reduces the need for a correction event at the Ides. 

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you can shift that entire pattern 500 miles east, could be interesting. 

really ... it's been a problem all season. The entire dial of the hemisphere's been slipping back into that base-state where the ridge in western N/A is really more lapsing into the east Pacific ...sort of a west-based +PNA,  or east-based -PNA, which ever way one chooses to identify it. 

But it's stressed systems ejected E, during the "perceived +PNA"  episode, because the flow is caused to split coming down the Rockies, with some mechanics meandering through the SW - not being entirely sure it will reunite with the more N branch as it tunnels east through the Lakes.  The blizzard mid season was about as close to reconnection/phase as we've gotten.  Usually... there's been more destructive interference however.