Harry

The Battle Creek river is at its second highest level I have seen since moving here. The power company has power lines along parts of it they have been replacing and have a ton of these wood platforms that the river has reached and I suspect only a matter of time before they start getting carried down the river if it keeps rising which I suspect it will this week. That may cause other issues if they start blocking the flow around bridges etc..

Rivers around here starting to go over thier banks and more rain on the way?

The lake I would think would keep it a bit warmer. I know Lake Michigan has saved our asses a few times from the coldest stuff the region has seen since I have lived here. Note record lows here vs say Ft. Wayne. Many of times it has been zero here vs -10s and even -20s west of the lake and down south of here across Indiana etc. A few times it helped to get lake effect ramped up as the cold air tries coming in via the SW/S clashing with the warmer air via the lake/nw/w flow. This region has some incredible micro climates going because of these lakes which I have always find interesting to say the least. Can affect snowfall, temps, and even severe wx in spring/early summer.

When I moved here I was told by many ( even a few on this forum ) I was to far inland to get into decent lake effect. Keep in mind the average snowfall here between 1920-1950 was just over 40 vs today's near 70. The 80s saw a bump up and 90s back down a bit but from 2000 onward it has just exploded. The data for here goes back to 1895 and before 66-67 ( 96.8 )no winter had topped 80 and since 2000 the 90 mark alone has been topped 6-7times and the 100 twice. What else would it be?

Try looking at climo sites that have not seen such urban sprawl etc. Quite a few that go back to 1880s and even earlier in some cases.

Lansing goes back to the 1860s or used to? I looked at a few of them a decade or so ago. Even Coldwater had data back to 1880 or so.

Funny thing about this stuff is if you go to long standing smaller climo sites that have not seen the urban explosion you don't see nearly the same warming etc. Makes me wonder how much of it is due to population etc growth aka urban heat island effect? Ofcourse I am nearly certain the lakes are warmer then they have been in a long time and I am near certain that has much to do with the increase in snowfall downwind in areas such as here. Atleast in the past 25 years or so.

That Duluth record is surprising as that was a huge winter ( 95-96 ) along i95 from VA/coast on north. A number of seasonal records fell that winter with a few coastal locations ( DE/NJ/MD )blowing the doors off the record books.

That's the key to warmer. A few models show it.

Flipped to snow here a hour or so ago. Nice returns coming in via the lake but nothing sticking so far.

For this event I gotta say the models have remained more consistent then I have seen in a while. No nw or se trend etc. If only every system was modeled like this.

I believe Detroit's biggest snowstorm on record happened in the first week of April. Michsnowfreak knows alot more about that. I am amazed it has not happened since?

You do know there is a whole forum devoted to climate change? Wouldn't mind a discussion about our region in there as several others have. It's gonna get lost in threads like this.

Could be. MJO has strengthened again. Get that into 4 and we should start seeing a warming trend.

After the last cement job I am good with a cold rain.

The oddity was the November Les event I think? 21+ on a west flow event is insane for here but that's what it was. Not sure what you got from that. But yeah the i94 band usually works out best for both of us which is usually a more wnw flow.. Guessing the November Les event here was one of those one in a 100+ year events? Never ever thought my biggest snow event here would be via the lake but that did it. The PV storm and GHD is now number 2 with 18 from those two.

That would fast track here into the top 3 possibly 2 and thus into the 100+ range. So yeah I certainly have my doubts. Ofcourse that would also as well break the March snowfall record and with that last system make a run towards the April record. What are the odds of seing three different months have a record broken like that? So yeah I say the odds of that model run are very very slim. Lol

Thus what keeps me from jumping on any nw trend type discussion. Ofcourse most of the models did go that route today with the weekend event. See if it holds or was a blip. I just know I really don't care for another 6+ cement snow. Hoping the nw route holds.

Yep. Some years such as this one the lake has contributed I would guess around 35 inches to the 81 or so here. Like there 06-07 totals had alot to do with the lake. If you follow the average seasonal snowfall I figured out a few years back that for every mile you go west of here you gain a inch while losing a inch till you get near Jackson where it begins to level out a bit more. North burbs of Detroit gets a bit more vs where Josh is especially with west flow events. Those guys can explain that a bit better.

That line cuts off between here/i69 and Kalamazoo.

And it's still not done. Got this weekend and then another behind it. Most likely BS but good ole goofus showing 30+ around here for the whole run. Lol

I could do without that stronger looking-nao signal and thus note the stronger ridging up towards Greenland. Can also see the building heights in the far top left and thus a more pronounced -EPO. As far as all those telecons go they all will be negative by the weekend with the PNA falling off into.the unknown. Can't recall to often seeing it with all of them ( AO, NAO, EPO, PNA ) negative and PNA so negative. Something I think will have to give. With the MJO crashing into the COD ( phase 3 ) it leaves alot more questions going forward beyond the weekend? Basically gonna be no forcing to help things move along but for how long is the question?

If only those 60+ readings could sneak up here.

The actual total for here is 81.2"! For March it is at 22.0" I'll check later to see where it ranks.

Unless that MJO can make a run at 4 the nw trend thing should stay dead as it has most of this month. Ofcourse it looks to be headed into the COD next weekend and beyond so harder to say beyond that time frame. The EPO, NAO, AO look to tank later this week as well. Interesting times ahead for sure.