stormtracker

LWX seems kinda nervous rea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1030 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will bring wintry precipitation to the region this evening into Tuesday. Another system may impact our region late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure builds into the early parts of this weekend before another system potentially impacts our region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast confidence on p-type and specific snow/ice amounts continues to be lacking due to spread among guidance on temps aloft, isothermal layer seen on model soundings, and very cold sounding seen this morning at IAD. Tried to maintain as much as consistency with previous forecast as possible, however, some adjustments were made to the 90th percentile or reasonable worst case scenario for snow amounts now showing a max of 5 inches across the north and 2-3 inches (reasonable worst case) for areas around the Capital Beltway. This is to account for the higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast. Did also some adjustments to the precip onset graphic, a little quicker in the southwest and a little slower in the northeast mainly after 7PM. QPF amounts in the 18Z-00Z today time frame were also lowered somewhat in the southwest based on 06Z ECMWF ensembles and slow progression on precip on regional radars.

I made a bar at my house. Bought all liquors (and discovered that I like Scotch way more than I thought), mixers, even some new glasses and I've been having a ball. Anyway, here's to hoping the NAM scores the coup.

ICON didn't look all that great to me?

Only 7 days away!

lol, NAM doesn't even have a molecule over the area during the supposed storm.

How did you get so lucky?

I think that's the only reason? We've all just gotten used to being told the NAM is crap so we just run with it? But this time, it likely is. There is zero other model support.

cackling

We got nothing else. F*** it, might as well pretend we're on a snowstorm eve. Well for the next hour. THe RGEM, GFS and even ICON will come in with 2 sleet pellets and a flake for the cumulative total of the storm.

so at hour 28 at 12 k, there's this really heavy band of....<checks again> blue over the dc area

I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against.

I lol'd for real. What else can we do? 2 days ago we had back to back runs showing us the son of Jan 2016. And now, not even a passing flurry. We all knew the GFS was overdone, sure. But we figured a 3 to 5 inch snowstorm. I would have gladly accepted that. It is what it is, but the frustration level is real. It's hobby...we have real lives and hopefully nobody is on a ledge somewhere. I'm about to pig out on some uber eats and watch the games.

"Which"*

Now we await the Euro to finish this off and we can go on the hunt for salvaging February. Which may not be possible?

Tragically comical. With both systems.

Disappointing if you live in the city and east. Kinda odd. hr 108

Or the Euro.

TPV is not helping here

Nevermind. Saw the thermals. Nice storm, but thermals are irritating me. We can work with it for now tho. Still time.

This is the post i was waiting for. It’s gonna snow y’all.

Yup. And we have to find the New Englander who is putting the hex on us.

lol, yeah, para finally joins and GFS shits the bed worst than Weather Will posting 16,459 maps with terrible and/or obvious editorials.

Now THAT's more like it.

Yup. Sensible would be CMC until we get another major model that winds this up like the GFS