NWS 3:17am update.
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6pm till 6pm Tuesday. 6-12" with higher amounts in higher elevations.
Obviously they are not following latest model runs tonight.
Winter storm watch is already posted for Sullivan and Deleware county in NY. My latest forecast from NWS is basically a nothing burger. Rain/snow mix. Light snow accumulation.
It's all about where the capture takes place, stalls, and does it's little retrograde loop. No model will have a handle on it till probably late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night.