sussexcountyobs

From everything I've read, and all the Mets I've watched. Central Park is looking like minimum 6-10, probably 8-12. My question is what's the betting line that CP measures more than 3.8" regardless?

Heat is fixed. System was air bound.

Pump is hot. My boiler guy should be here within a half hour.

And of course on the coldest day of the year, pre snowstorm, my heat upstairs isn't working. I think it's the circulator pump?

NWS is steadfast for my area, and remains forecasting 12-18". Currently +0.8F

Yes it has. Down to 16.0 here already

From EPAWA text alert just now: Sussex: Snow arrives 4-6am Sunday, heavy at times through Sunday night, ending as snow showers early Monday AM. Snow: 12-18 inches, isolated >18 poss.

From Mt. Holly Affected Area Portions of northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania Description ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze. WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

Mount Holly 5:47am update: The areal extent of potential mixing remains in question, and tied in large part to the exact track of the coastal low. With that said, guidance continues to support the idea of a low track close enough to the coast to lead to at least some mixing for a large portion of the area, potentially as far north as the I-78 corridor. North of I- 78, the anticipation is still for an all snow event. Sunday night through early Monday morning, as the low begins to pull away and cold air from the northwest begins to filter back in, precipitation should change back to all snow for most of the area with additional accumulations likely. Breezy northeast winds on Sunday and northwest winds on Monday could lead to some minor blowing and drifting of snow, especially where mixing does not occur and where snow-to- liquid ratios are highest. All-told, snow amounts around 12-15" appear likely across all of eastern PA and northern NJ. Higher amounts (potentially exceeding 18") are expected across the Poconos and into adjacent areas of far northwestern NJ. For the lower Delmarva into much of southeastern NJ, 6-12" of snow are expected, with mixing limiting totals more in those areas. Right now, ice accretion of generally 0.10-0.25" is expected along the I-95 corridor. Amounts exceeding 0.25" are possible for portions of the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Further refinements will likely be needed in future updates as the event draws closer. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the entire area Saturday night through early Monday afternoon.

Has anyone done, or know how to do soundings for northwest NJ? I've seen a couple for NYC and Philly, but nothing for NW Jersey.

Doesn't matter what falls. Central Park will log in the books 3.8"

From EPAWA text alert: SE Sussex: Winter storm Saturday night thru early Monday. Snow of at least 12 inches, then mixing with sleet; more defined amounts/timing follow Friday.NW Sussex: Winter storm Sat night thru early Monday. Snow at least 16 inches and best chance to remain all snow; more defined amounts/timing follow Friday

My local forecast actually increased amounts from what they had this morning. 12-18" is a good bet as of right now.

Probably soon. Lol

Mt. Holly: KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant winter storm appears increasingly likely Saturday night through Monday morning. Substantial snow accumulations will be possible across much of the area. Some mixed precipitation is expected as well. A closed mid-level low off the southwestern coast of CA will gradually open and pivot northeastward, eventually phasing with the northern jet as it approaches our region. This will place our entire region in the left exit region of a potent trough. Synoptic scale ascent is expected to begin overspreading the region by Saturday evening. As surface low pressure begins to approach from the southwest, precipitation is expected to begin overspreading the region from southwest to northeast Saturday night. Given the very cold airmass in place initially, precipitation is expected to start as all snow. As the vertical column moistens, snow rates may quickly become heavy, with rapid accumulations possible. During the day on Sunday, additional surface cyclogenesis is expected off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the surface low tracking northeastward. The primary remaining uncertainty with this forecast is the exact low track. In general, guidance continues to suggest a low track fairly to the coast, with the GFS as a relative outlier a little bit farther out to sea. Given this low track, it is becoming increasingly likely that sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain will enter the picture for parts of the area during the day on Sunday. Right now, this appears most likely from about the Philadelphia metro and south, and perhaps farther north for the Coastal Plain. While this could decrease snow totals some, exactly where mixing occurs remains uncertain, and confidence remains high in significant snow accumulations. In addition, mixed precipitation would still cause significant issues. For this region, DESI probabilities of exceedance for warning criteria snow (5 inches) are over 90%. Depending on how soon, and to what extent, mixing occurs, amounts could exceed 10 inches for this area. Outside of the aforementioned areas, all snow is expected, with significant accumulations likely. DESI probabilities of exceedance for warning level snow (6 inches) across the remainder of our eastern PA and northern NJ counties are over 90%. In fact, probabilities of exceeding 10 inches are 70-90%.

It is very warm. That's why my forecast high is 10F Sunday, and low is 9F Sunday night. It's getting too close for comfort.

From Mt. Holly: KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase the area will be affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall. Low pressure will begin organizing itself near the Texas Gulf coast Saturday. This will occur as several pieces of upper level energy dive southward into the base of the persistent long wave trough dominating over the CONUS. Saturday night into Sunday these pieces of upper level energy will to at least some degree "phase" with one another helping to drive deepening surface low pressure through the southeastern states then north and east towards roughly around the Virginia coast by late Sunday. Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the placement and the track of the low due to better phasing of upper level energy as just noted. However there continues to be some uncertainty regarding more specific details and this will ultimately affect the storms track, speed, and strength. This will impact where the heaviest precip falls along with precip types. Nevertheless, confidence has grown that much of the area has a good chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall totals with this system. The NBM probabilities of 6+ inches with this storm now range from around 60 percent over the southern Poconos to the 80 to 90 percent range near and south of the urban corridor. Guidance is also in good general agreement that total QPF amounts with the system have the potential to be 1+ inches in many areas. The main challenge is again, the track of the low which determines who gets the heaviest precip and if we actually get into any mixing limiting snow amounts. The GFS has trended north putting much of the area in the "sweet spot" for very heavy snow amounts. However the GEM and ECMWF have trended north as well and now track the low close enough to Delmarva that mixing may occur at the height of the storm late Sunday. Regardless, expect snow to most likely start breaking out over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. All areas look to certainly be cold enough initially to see all snow. In fact lows Saturday night look to once again be down into the single numbers north with teens to around 20 farther south. Heading into the day Sunday, expect snow will be continuing across the area and may fall heavy at times along with NE winds starting to increase, especially along the coast. Late day Sunday into Sunday night is when southern portions of the CWA (mainly Delmarva into adjacent portion of south Jersey but potentially as far north as Philly) could see some mixing if the low takes a close enough track to the area. However given the strong artic high and antecedent cold airmass in place, plain rain looks less likely than a mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain if any mixing does in fact occur. If this mixing does occur for a time, a change back to all snow is likely later Sunday night into early Monday before precip winds down across the area into Monday. As already mentioned, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding total snow amounts. 24 hours ago this looked like more of a question of a near "miss" to the south vs. a big snowstorm. Now it`s looking like a more or less a lock that this storm will affect the area with significant precip with the question then shifting to whether the track actually gets too far north to bring a mix or changeover into the area. If this occurs, the very heaviest snow amounts may end up near or even north of the urban corridor vs coastal and southern portions of the area. We say this while stressing the fact that the very heaviest snow amounts within these type of large systems are still often only 100 miles wide or less. S/E of the snowfall max you get ice or rain vs. N/W precip amounts are lighter. For this reason, it will still take at least a couple more forecast cycles to have a clearer idea on the details of where any "blockbuster" snow amounts could occur within our County Warning area.

Currently 0 at my house. Sussex shows -6 right now

Got down to -23 that morning by me

+1.5 here

27.5" thus far in Vernon Twsp. @ Canistear Reservoir

We'll both be flirting with 0 tonight.

Clear. +7.7F

At this point. Why even pay any attention to what the ass clown who measures in CP says. In a city of 8-9 million people, there's not 1 weather nerd like us that lives nearby that can go stick a ruler in the snow?

This is still 6 days out. This can easily move 100 miles north. All it would take is that strong banana high to be not as strong as currently modeled. Or, the high further north than currently modeled. But I'll leave that to the Mets on here to figure out.