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wkd

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Posts posted by wkd

    December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Another overhyped arctic front by the msm and the prez. Unless in the upper Midwest or down wind of the great lakes this is a nothingburger. We get 2 of these a season. Very cold? Sure...but thats also relative. I get it....travel day and all that. I'm just looking at obs and reports and I'm far from impressed. Just being honest. Avocados underperformed

    Ralph,   I hope you lose power for a week.

    • Sad 1

    "We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

    in New England

    Posted

    2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

    all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark

    if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

    I would bet you are one of the majority on this board that are emotionally agonizing over something 7 days away.  Lol

    • Thanks 1

    December 2022

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Probably not. But there have been times when it happened...when some oddity like the MJO or rogue Rosby Wave behavior or a SSWE mucks things up. Let's remain cautiously optimistic.....and patient of course.

    You say this EVERY winter!!.   Very rarely do you post a positive future outlook.  It's always dampen your expectations, usually because of a SER. 

    • Like 1

    December 2022

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    taking the under due to climo but I like blocking in Dec-bodes well for add'l blocking later in the season.

    I think using CLIMO as a parameter in the likely outcome of any future synoptic setup is totally bogus. I have argued this point for a long time on this board.  Climatology is the result of averaging weather outcomes over local, regional or national/worldwide areas.  Using climatology as a factor in any given synoptic setup is ridiculous in my opinion.  I know many knowledgeable people disagree. 

    Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
    Breakdown of measurements
     
    1.3" 11/17
    4.6" 8 PM 11/17
    6.5" 2 AM 11/18
    21.5" 815 AM 11/18
    22.9" 2:45 PM 11/18
    11.3" 8:45 PM 11/18
    5.6" 2:45 AM 11/19
     
    Storm Total: 73.7"

    I don't think anyone is questioning your snowfall totals.  Seems there is some question of measurement methods.  I'm sure all of the snow weenies (including me) are envious and greatly appreciate your enthusiasm.  You must be exhausted..  Thanks for giving us a vicarious experience.

    • Thanks 1

    Winter 2022-23

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

    In a feast or famine climo location, any guesses near climo are statistically weak lol. Go small to rack up wins or go big to rack up fame.... eventually 

    I still look at long range stuff but only at a 10k' view nowadays. From what I've seen since mid Oct, my intuition is strongly telling me winter will be winter this year in the east. Especially if the GoA ridge is predominant and is centered further east than usual. We can be cold and snow without blocking in that regime. I have no strong thoughts at all other than my gut

    I've always followed your subforum and looked forward to Chill's and PSU's  posts.   My objection is why so many knowledgeable posters take climatology as a major consideration in their thinkig of  future seasonal    

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