wkd

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the climate is only getting warmer <3 

That seems to be the scientific consencus but how about using your met degree knowledge to let the rest of us non-mets know how the slow warming will affect the likelihood of the already rare KU events.  Please contribute with your knowledge of meteorology instead of continually putting up crappy one sentence posts.

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a favorable look for late winter if true. Lots of cold available.

The RNA/-PNA isn't a detriment like it can be in early-mid winter. At the very least you could get some SWFEs. 

Models are definitely trending towards a -NAO

What's the difference between a RNA and -PNA  Ever since Benchmark started using the term RNA I have been confused. 

low this morning  5.3F

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

I went back and did an analysis on 1" plus rainfall events from 1894 through 2022

• Overall we average 12.6 such events per year
• From 1894 to 1959 we averaged 11.8 such events per year
• From 1960 to 2022 we average 13.1 events per year so on average we are seeing 1.3 more 1" rain events on an annual basis....so I guess we think climate change is giving us 1 additional 1" rain event per year is troublesome?? catastrophe?

Catastrophe?  I doubt it from my elevation (120').  But tell me the truth from your perspective, as you live relatively nearby.  Have average rainfall amounts per event increased in the last one or two decades.

19 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

LOL belly up??? Sorry Charlie my forecast was actually indeed spot on as we did finish with our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as I predicted! Again just the facts!! Not surprising, as climate alarmists have a horrible track record of identifying actual events that have impacted the actual weather. So tell me again which weather calamity has befallen us due to this warming???

I believe one of the events predicted was increased flooding events due to a warmer atmosphere.  Maybe it's just news coverage (which I doubt), but it seems to me that in the U.S as well as numerous other parts of the world,  this prediction has certainly proved valid.  Even here in NJ, rainfall events of over an inch seem fairly normal.  I don't remember that being the case in my past.

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

How would you know if no snowfall was forecasted by the ensembles without looking at all 51 members? Ensemble snowfall is an average of those 51 members.

Good point.  I'll need to check the map and see if it was really based on the ensembles.  Maybe it was something put together inhouse by WeatherBell.  It's a probability map of total snowfall if that makes a difference.

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models don't have any "climo" built in..........

I remember seeing euro ensemble snowfall projection maps posted by a person in the mid-atlantic forum last year. These were from wxbell.  Scrolling through the time stamps, snowfall kept increasing even though no snowfall was forecast for my area (central NJ).  I always thought it was because the model was considering climo.  

I got about 3/4" of snow.  Finally a white landscape.

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro had the North central NJ snows for around 3” in spots 

I've had zero so far.  3" would be welcome.

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Mount holly radar impressive some heavy snow in extreme eastern PA. Snow breaking out in the NYC burbs 

Can confirm.  Heavy snow here in west central NJ.

Heavy snow!!!  Beautiful while it lasts.

20 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Check out central pa thread. Very active there


.

I just wish it was more active here.  Maybe the Mt. Holly mets could post a little more.

RAY?

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

By the time they transfer, even if we had colder air, we would have been toast anyway.  The lows are getting north of Ohio.  

I don't necessarily agree.  If there had been colder air, why would we have been toast? There have been numerous times where the primary low tracks to the lakes but there is enough cold air (often due to CAD) that the secondary low offshore produces a lot of snow in our area.  By the way, thanks for responding.  I wish we had more discussion (including Mets) in our subforum.  Ralph seems to be the only one attempting to do any  forecast analysis.   Thanks Ralph!

Ray (40/70 benchmark) in the NE subforum mentioned this.  There have been a lot of lows transferred from the inland primary to the coast, which in a normal winter season would have given our area a lot of snow.  The problem so far has been a lack air cold enough to snow.  So far I have had zero snow accumulation. Twice there was snow in the air.   I hope this doesn't become the new normal in our area.

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I just came back from a trip out to the Berks - Lee, Great Barrington area. Saw 24 hours of light to mod snow amount to less than an inch. Been a similar story back in Dover. Interior or not, it's BL temps have been a major problem throughout SNE.

People in this area are not used to being laser focused on BL temps. Growing up on LI you lived and died by it for snow total accums.

This year in SNE tracking BL temps >> tracking radar. The former has been the problem, while the latter has been outperforming.

 

People should post 'positive snow depth change' maps instead of total snowfall.

Some flakes mixing in.  37F

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Where were you then?

In 1961 I was in Germany. My family moved back to Neptune, N.J in 1962.

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The ‘61 storm solidified the special winter status.  The big one 12/11-12/60 with a few more small events in between followed by the reload and 1/19/61 JFK inaugural storm. The intense cold for the next 2 weeks culminated by the biggest of all storms 2/3-4/61 gave us quite the pack!  But the February storm was the pattern changer and our 2 month glorious run was over.  About 5 days later we had an ice storm.  I was sure it would snow-after all that morning was 7 degrees and it stayed around 20 all day.  What did I know of mid levels!  Tamarack can give his perspective being in the same area roughly the same age.

I really like reading some of your posts about past winter seasons.  It brings back a lot of good memories. 

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it's probably subjective. Maybe below 30-35"? Lets say my long term (Not 30 yr which is probably inflated due to short term cycles) is around 45" or so.  I don't even have 6" on the season yet. 

Thanks.   I've had zero snow on the ground so far.  I'm still thinking February-early March produce (just because they usually do).  Although there are many exceptions, my experience here is that January is usually cold and dry, which is the worst for a snow lover and one who has to pay the bills for heating oil.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If next week doesn't work out, you can lock in a crap snow season at least in SNE anyway. 

What would you consider a crap snow season where you're located?  I would like to know for future reference.

ORH,

Do you have past weather stats easily accessible on your computer or is much of it stored in your head?  I find your recall of past winters amazing.  You and Don Sutherland should write a book on the past 30 or 40 winters.  Both of you guys contribute so much valuable information to this board.  Thanks.

So much pessimism in so many of the forums, especially since we are only in the second week of January. I've lived in NJ most of my life and my experience has been that February and the first part of March have had the best chances of snow in this area. Those months may not necessarily have the biggest storms but they seem to have more snow events (especially February).  Don't give up, no matter what the long range models spit out.

I forget the year (within the last 10 but Will would know), but all of the 'forget this winter' posts were coming fast and furious.  I know this is part of the humor in this subforum which makes it so much fun reading, but I also remember you got buried in February which for my area is usually the snowiest.  You all have the best winter subforum; keep it up.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Stop looking at the ensembles past 300 hours

I'm trying not to look at anything past 200 hours. 

Forget it.  You know this is an addiction.  You'll look.

Has anyone heard from Heise recently?  I think he said he was going to chase in Buffalo.  I haven't seen him posting anywhere.