wkd

1/2" here

On 2/17/2025 at 3:26 PM, LVblizzard said:

OT/Randy’s Hood got nuked…probably for the better. I have no clue how people could post in there every day and not get sick of it. I browsed and posted a little during election season and that was enough for me.

I'm trying out users sesh which has many of the same people as amwx OT.  Stebo, a person I blocked because one Trix was enough,   actually is very different in there. Very little insulting people in that discord, but it's hard for me to get used to the the different format.

8 minutes ago, MGorse said:

 

Thanks Mike,

Off topic, but is Ray Martin still with you guys. I really miss his winter weather publications that so many refer to.

32 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Not all models use the same math and physics equations plus differences in resolution which impacts the model output solutions. 

Differences in resolution I can understand, but why the difference in the the physics equations?  Thanks for repying Mike.

2 minutes ago, MGorse said:

It has been snowing here for a while now but no accumulation. The snow is getting wetter so the changeover cannot be far away. Temperature down to 35 from 38. 

I can't tell you how much I appreciate what you and your colleagues do to inform us of upcoming weather conditions. The NWS is an invaluable American asset.  Wishing you the best.

Snow started around1pm. So far no accum worth measuring.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Yes they do

So why do the models have such a difference in the extended outcome?  Do different world weather agencies use different atmospheric physics?  This is something I have wondered about for a long time. Maybe you or others have the answer.

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Know the bias, makes things easier.

Just wondering. Did you foresee the huge change at H5 on the euro?

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do you think it received new data ie dropsonde or energy hitting the W Coast?

Wouldn't all of the models receive the same data?

So far I'm very happy with this winter. It probably won't exceed many winters in total snow but I can't remember the last time there have been so many days with a snow cover, starting around Christmas.  Also, what happened to the usual January thaw?

1.5".  Nice fresh cover.

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Getting a decent snowstorm in Philly seems like pulling teeth. This is probably another 1-1.5


.

Heisy.

If the woman in your avatar is your wife/girlfriend please give her equal exposure. She is much better looking. J/K

44 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The NAM was heavy on the sleet with the last storm which was overdone. Let’s see if that repeats with this storm later today and tonight. 

I'm wishing you and all of your colleages the best. We need your services.

56 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

1/8 vis and puking aggregates while my wife suffers through birth and I stare out the window at Hartford Hospital. 

Your first?

I'm not used to having snow cover and below normal temps for so long in January. As an old timer it reminds me of the good old days.

3.5" here a little northeast of Flemington, NJ

Getting some serious snowfall rate now.  I so love snow during the daylight.

5 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

In ten minutes sky went from totally clear blue to overcast with that snow look/feel.  Neighbor just texted me to join an impromptu snow party in his barn.  Hope I'm not too crocked when it starts cranking.   

I come into your forum just hoping I will see your avatar. Oh, and enjoy the snow.

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Time to just see how things develop and play out this afternoon and evening. Decent snow storm for most folks in SNE. 

And the mld-atlantic, Philly, NJ, and the NYC area. Finally a I95 event. It's been a long time.

First flakes here. Earlier than I expected.

3/8" here

1.25" as of 5:30am

1.0" here.  Beautiful outside.

4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I stirred the pot with my late note post. Whoops 

I didn’t mean to cause alarm. I wanted to point out to some who follow that seeing the signals on the ensembles and deterministic for dry cold are on the table and it’s one thing to keep in mind. I also mentioned that I do love what I see in the ensembles. I’ll take my chances with this setup any day. Plus, one of the things that could happen is sneaky snow squall type events with this type of Arctic discharge. There’s a lot to be excited about! I just temper expectations because a failure spot is still on the table. Most here know that, but some might not, so I wanted to make sure the base is covered. 
 

Hate to say it, but I’ve become a person whose glass is 3/4 empty these days on a lot of things. Sorry if I came off doom and gloom. 

Care to share anything not too personal?  Looks like you have a job with a great outfit.

4" from the event and still snowing lightly.