wasnow215
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Everything posted by wasnow215
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I remember living in NYC I believe it was 1994 and even tho temps rose above 32° it took awhile for the freezing rain to become “rain” on the actual surfaces because it was landing on ice that had already accumulated. So I think it may take a little while on Sunday to get back to normal even if temps go 33° or 34°.
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Yes. They handled this really well IMO- I’m glad they did not wait.
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Looks like the winds should stay below 10 mph which is important that happens
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Also 18z gfs colder during freezing rain than 12z. That’s the thing also. Some of the places north and west of Richmond proper could get a little less QPF but could be two or 3° colder than those south and east even though they are still freezing. This is going to be a problem
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The guy ends up being like some weird mad scientist or something sometimes. He feels like he got burned by the European and other models in Europe the last couple weeks so now he just thinks everything is a nonevent. It’s very strange.
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Here in Glen Allen never really stopped but lightened. Now picking up again. And if your look at latest HRRR it shows the dry slot but also shows it filling back in quickly.
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Snow 32° in Glen Allen. The backfill is occurring especially the northern part of the “dry slot”.
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There will be the brine down already they use to treat this the roads for tonight and tomorrow.
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Same
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We could reach winter storm warning criteria in the Richmond area later tonight. Which means we could have a winter storm warning going on at the same time we are in a winter storm watch for Saturday lol. Haven’t seen anything like this since I lived in Northern Virginia in 2010.
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So did 12k -18z NAM 10:1 as shown. Now… I tend to look at "positive snow depth change" because it's more conservative and generally more accurate. It has 3" to maybe 4". However if you look at 18 Z NAM run from last night It had South Jersey at 3" on positive depth also but 4-6" on 10:1. I have family there and they were measuring 5 to 6 inches in Atlantic County and Cape May County this morning. Just an observation.
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3-6” final call. Obviously the lowest amounts south/SE of Richmond proper where more mixing could occur. I think 4 to 5 inches in the city north and west is very possible w lollies of 6”.
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100% correct.
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For pretty much every midday model run snow totals have increased compared to the last few runs before 12z. Again it won’t approach 10 inches but where he had the “bull’s-eye” it will be 3 to 6 probably.
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Actually wave 2 from 12Z on pretty much every model is better in the area he had 10” than it was last night and 6z today. Not 10” and it never was, but 3-5” possibly after going all the way down to 1-2” in that “bullseye”.
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What was his original call?
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Lol-Who is this Zach and where is his forecast? haha
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
wasnow215 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Looks like Saturday we will have major icing according to 12z ICON in a lot of places. Looks like surface temps stay below freezing no? -
Here is an interesting note however regarding the different models. The NAM, the RGEM And a few other short term models handled the snow that fell in SNJ n E PA well last night into today with 10:1 ratios. Showed 3-6” and they got 3-6”. However they had pure snow and not mixing or sleet etc. So maybe 4 inches is possible here with what the short term models are showing this morning.
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Yes-Sorry I answered you without attaching LOL
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Yeah-Seems like the short term models have extended the period of time we see precipitation from this especially if you go from Richmond proper southward 20 miles.
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With mixing at times and temps an issue at the beginning I think looking at the models that have “total positive snow depth“ is smarter to look at rather than 10:1. So I think to two MAYBE 4 inches (northwest of 95) is possible.
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Sorry I meant NAM for tonight
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Very true about the models. The ice storm looks like Sat afternoon into early Sun morning. And Wakefield has us in .25-.50 total ice accumulation. NAM just came in real nice after a step back at 6z. And it’s pretty long in duration as depicted.
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No winter storm warning but at least looks like no shutout tonight. Unfortunately still looking like an ice storm Saturday. Temps at the surface below 32° Sat looks like during the event into Sunday. Still time for things to change there.
