wasnow215

More not in good range for 3K than a fluke to me.

In all fairness mesoscales don't come into range for another 24 hours. And I've NEVER found HRRR or SREF to be viable or accurate especially for complicated systems like these.

Onto the Euro!! (Haha-see what I did there?)

Best NAM run for us so far!

First time I've seen this on any NAM run for this storm. At our 72 a secondary low develops on the border of NC/Va.

At hour 60 it's still mainly a mix on NAM. However it is colder. 540 line 30 miles south of where it was at 18z.

Uh oh-I'm an Eagles and PSU fan. I'm from South Jersey originally. Go Birds! Lol

It's just nice to have something to track again in between the holidays and the NFL playoffs lol.

See I think those are solid maps! Especially Bernie's best bets lol. The bigger spread at this point makes way more sense and gives fair warning to people about what could happen. Even if we do get mostly freezing rain they should be showing the possibility of more than a quarter inch don't you think?

This is a respectable forecast right here. It's a blend of the GFS and Euro really. I'm 4-8" if we get a little bit on the back end.

I want to add one more thing. When you are just a little over or at 48 hours before an event and you are that conservative- why wouldn't most of the public who sees that forecast, just go about life as normal and be out on the roads and POSSIBLY risking lives? It's the same way I feel when they wait way too long to put up severe storm watches. I just feel sometimes it borders on being irresponsible. Ok I'm done lol.

Not saying to not be cautious. Saying there's a difference between cautious and ignoring a very good weather model altogether. It's silly to me but I'll leave that and we will see what happens I would up all those totals by 2 inches and that's still conservative in my opinion. Really think about it. If most of the precipitation on all the weather models is approaching an inch or at least 4/5 of an inch, where is the rest of the precipitation going? Since the ice forecast is also conservative. I know some is just melt off etc. but I just don't think it makes sense, based on the most recent modeling.

Like looking for someone to agree with you even though your closest and most reliable friends give you different advice. : D

You're very kind-seems like they're leaving the euro out altogether -I'll put 50 bucks down on the over on those numbers in the Richmond area. Way too conservative. Do they at least have an ice forecast and sleet?

I was gonna say the consistency of those members are just incredible!

It might be a little past Tuesday

I actually never lost hope! Two days ago and everybody was down I just thought we were way too far away from the actual event to give up. I'll save it for the rest of my life. Weather models aren't super reliable any of them outside of 72 hours

The trends have been just terrific for us snow lovers today lol

I don't have that type of control haha. But I take care of them!

Ugh...I'm SO GLAD but I run a very popular convenience store and that makes it quite the pain my gosh lol. Just trying to get associates in cuz we don't close! Hahahahaha

Jaws music ...

Oh it's a trend for sure

NAM 12z is a huge ice storm for us. Don't want that

This hobby lol-"We should know more 5 days out", "we should know more 3 days out", "we should know more 6 minutes out!!" Hahahaha

Mostly sleet and freezing rain