NAM way better than 18z. Can we be honest?? Like really honest?? NAM is JUST coming into range and HRRR and SREF's are just terrible weather models period. Even during storms!
I thought the CMC looked better too -I've been kind of running around today and I have to work in a little bit but it looks like the CMC gave us some more frozen
I think many of us will see 3 inches before it actually mixes. At least 2 inches for sure with that beginning thump. There's 2 to 3 inches right there. And then another one to 2 inches on the backside makes it 3 to 5 inches and that's my call
In all fairness mesoscales don't come into range for another 24 hours. And I've NEVER found HRRR or SREF to be viable or accurate especially for complicated systems like these.