GaWx

Huge gusts of wind (sounded like 50+ easily) just now and I just lost power. It is roaring. Hearing bangs on my roof here in Savannah. Worst since Matthew it appears.

Huge gusts of wind (sounded like 50+ easily) just now and I just lost power. It is roaring. Hearing bangs on my roof here in Savannah.

Probably one of the highest surges in over 100 years.

Power outages in Savannah have increased rapidly the last hour. I’ve recently heard two transformers blow. I don’t expect to have power too much longer. Winds have already been gusting into the 40s. Lots of debris falling on the roof, roaring wind sounds. Kind of worrisome especially it keeps getting worse over the next 3+ hours or so as predicted. Earlier there were water spouts coming inland in the area. A very long night here already and the storm center is over 150 miles away currently!

Even though this area is far from the center (over 200 miles), sustained winds/gusts (to 40+) have increased substantially the last 30 minutes. Im hearing loud roars already from the wind. Stuff falling on my roof. I just heard a nearby transformer blow. I expect power will likely be lost at some point here, perhaps very soon. GA Power outages are now starting to rise rapidly. This is going to be a very long rest of the night. It has already been a long night with the tornado warnings/heavy showers/gusty winds earlier. Stay safe folks! Just heard another transformer blow. These recent high winds have been mainly with no rain.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 950 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1015 PM EDT. * AT 950 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF TYBEE ISLAND, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HILTON HEAD ISLAND, BLUFFTON, TYBEE ISLAND, BELLINGER HILL AREA, WILMINGTON ISLAND, FORT PULASKI NATIONAL MONUMENT, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH AND HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 854 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT. * AT 854 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED OVER ST. CATHERINES ISLAND, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... POOLER, RICHMOND HILL, BLOOMINGDALE, KELLER, BELFAST, FORT MCALLISTER, SUNBURY, BURROUGHS, HALFMOON LANDING AND ST. CATHERINES ISLAND.

I had some rain last night though only ~0.25”. But late this morning I got nearly 2” within just an hour! It stopped for now. That brings me to ~4” since yesterday. My street flooded. Hoping not too much more will fall the next 24 hours, including from the more direct effects of Helene.

Even though we’re coming up on DMAX, I don’t think it will strengthen 20 mph in under 6 hours considering the latest recon being only 1 mb stronger, the way it looks right now on IR, and considering its huge size with TS force winds extending out up to a whopping 345 miles! Sand Key, FL, just had a sustained wind of 45 mph! Due to that huge and growing size this storm has a ton of power for an 85 mph storm. The overall impact as it is now would probably already be equivalent to a cat 2.

Released 2:19AM EDT: 970 mb/slow drop URNT12 KNHC 260619 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024 A. 26/05:48:10Z B. 23.56 deg N 086.49 deg W C. 700 mb 2843 m D. 970 mb E. 195 deg 4 kt F. OPEN NW G. C24 H. 60 kt I. 315 deg 28 nm 05:39:30Z J. 064 deg 54 kt K. 315 deg 36 nm 05:37:00Z L. 72 kt M. 131 deg 53 nm 06:03:30Z N. 230 deg 80 kt O. 131 deg 47 nm 06:02:00Z P. 9 C / 3064 m Q. 14 C / 3046 m R. 5 C / NA S. 1234 / 07 T. 0.02 / 2 nm U. AF309 1409A HELENE OB 04 MAX FL WIND 80 KT 131 / 47 NM 06:02:00Z MAX FL TEMP 15 C 311 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

Maybe I’m not recalling correctly, but I can’t recall a storm for which the NHC was notably west of the Euro, GFS, and UKMET for multiple runs. The CMC is now similar with its east trend and the Icon is even further east.

0Z Euro: 978 mb at Athens, which is 75 miles E of NHC track/similar to UKMET/GFS/CMC and very close to all-time record low SLP at Athens

0Z Euro: slight E shift of landfall to central Taylor county, notably E of NHC and at 957 mb

0Z UKMET: a bit E of 12Z and a little stronger once again as expected with landfall Big Bend and goes over Athens or 65 miles E of ATL/75 miles E of NHC track HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 86.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 26.09.2024 0 22.8N 86.8W 976 52 1200UTC 26.09.2024 12 24.6N 85.7W 972 50 0000UTC 27.09.2024 24 28.6N 84.0W 967 62 1200UTC 27.09.2024 36 34.5N 83.3W 979 37 0000UTC 28.09.2024 48 38.3N 86.9W 985 33 1200UTC 28.09.2024 60 36.7N 87.7W 995 16 0000UTC 29.09.2024 72 37.6N 87.2W 1002 24 1200UTC 29.09.2024 84 37.0N 87.0W 1006 21 0000UTC 30.09.2024 96 37.2N 86.8W 1009 20 1200UTC 30.09.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

Thanks. I know it says 18Z guidance, but I don’t see how those can be actual 18Z runs since they haven’t run yet. I believe those are mainly 12Z run tracks. They include UKMET, GFS, HWF, etc. Anyone else have more insight on this?

Do you mean the 12Z runs? It’s too early for 18Z runs of HWRF, HMON, etc. Which models are you referring to? Are you talking about different models?

Well fwiw, I roughly estimate that 40% of the 12Z EPS members are over or just W of TLH.

12Z EPS: mean track Gwinnett County, just E of Atlanta. More members just E of ATL vs right over or just W but a decent number are just W. So, a just W of ATL track still a reasonable possibility per 12Z EPS. Many members in high 970s to low 980s when closest to ATL.

I’m taking seriously for sure. Even 940 would be quite serious. But since the hurricane models sometimes overdo the strengthening, I’m hopeful, especially considering the size, that it won’t get as low as they have it

This is a quote from someone at another BB because he worded it so well: “It's bonkers that the NHC track seems to be discounting all of the global models further eastward movement. Not even a mention in any of the discussions. If the NHC nails this track as usual, I'll never doubt them again.” Opinions?

Yeah, I realize that the very large size and very high speed of movement are coming into play to unfortunately minimize how much the winds will come down/SLP rise by the time it gets to N GA (only ~9 hrs later) . I calculated an avg speed of ~28 mph from landfall to N GA, one of the fastest on record for a MH hitting the FL panhandle and moving N. (Eloise of 1975 was ~29). But my hope is that its 920 SLP is way overdone. With it being a very large storm, I’d think it would be difficult for it to get down to 920. Wouldn’t 940 mb be more reasonable considering its size and somewhat limited amount of time before landfall? Also, it temporarily has leveled off. If it is instead 940 mb, perhaps 20 mb could be added to the sub 960 prog for N GA and make it 970s though that would still be very bad and near records.

Considering that the record low SLP for N GA is in the 970s, I’m assuming this is likely way overdone. I sure hope that’s the case. But you never know for sure as this is a very unique situation.

12Z Euro: even stronger vs the 960 of the 6Z with 954 landfall! tracks to just E of Macon and then to Athens

A 2nd batch of heavy showers moving NW off the ocean just came through. There may be a 3rd batch later. This area seems to be on a train track for showers today. None of this has been forecasted earlier by NWS/models. Edit: I ended up with ~2”, none of which had been forecasted by models and the NWS had no mentioned pop til a few hours before. And it turned out I had a little water coming in to my garage on the side that had the most during Debby as well as from the thunderstorm 8/20.

12Z UKMET shifted a little W vs 0Z run’s far NE GA and once again comes in stronger like typical UK trend:TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 86.2WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 25.09.2024 0 21.5N 86.2W 984 510000UTC 26.09.2024 12 23.1N 86.3W 979 481200UTC 26.09.2024 24 25.5N 85.4W 975 500000UTC 27.09.2024 36 29.6N 83.9W 970 551200UTC 27.09.2024 48 35.6N 84.0W 984 310000UTC 28.09.2024 60 38.7N 86.8W 989 351200UTC 28.09.2024 72 36.9N 89.5W 996 160000UTC 29.09.2024 84 36.6N 89.3W 1003 121200UTC 29.09.2024 96 36.4N 89.3W 1006 100000UTC 30.09.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING