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EPS US landfalls: 9/10 12Z: 10 (20%): 6 ME, 3 MA, 1 RI 9/10 0Z: 3 (6%): 1 ME, 2 MA 9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA) 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

12Z JMA landfalls W NS. KMA hits C to E NS.

How accurate are those two tropical models for track vs the main global models?

After a drop on the 0Z/6Z runs, the 12Z GEFS clearly has the most US landfalls of any GEFS run yet, which had been 8 (18Z of yesterday). There are so many close together in ME that it is hard to count them! I'm estimating 13 US hits (42%) with ~8 in ME, 4 in MA, and 1 in NJ. I'd say a minimum of 12 (39%)(7 ME). I try not to double count. So, a MA landfall followed by ME counts as only a MA landfall for me. Edit: it may be as many as 14 hits because ME may have as many as 9!

The 12Z UK sped up considerably and is just off C NS at 168 hours at 970 mb. Its SLP peak of 944 mb isn't til 8PM EDT on Thu (9/14). Based on the often conservative UKMET still getting the SLP to fall back to 944 mb, I feel that a second peak as low as ~935 mb is a reasonable possibility, but I still feel JB's 920 mb is very likely too low due to progged too slow movement likely leading to too much cooling ahead of the center to support pressures that low. We'll see: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 60.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 10.09.2023 0 21.6N 60.8W 954 79 0000UTC 11.09.2023 12 22.2N 61.9W 961 74 1200UTC 11.09.2023 24 23.1N 63.5W 964 74 0000UTC 12.09.2023 36 23.6N 64.9W 957 76 1200UTC 12.09.2023 48 23.9N 66.3W 952 75 0000UTC 13.09.2023 60 24.5N 67.2W 951 75 1200UTC 13.09.2023 72 25.3N 67.9W 952 71 0000UTC 14.09.2023 84 26.4N 68.2W 949 78 1200UTC 14.09.2023 96 28.0N 68.4W 949 77 0000UTC 15.09.2023 108 29.8N 68.3W 944 76 1200UTC 15.09.2023 120 32.0N 67.9W 948 77 0000UTC 16.09.2023 132 35.0N 66.8W 950 72 1200UTC 16.09.2023 144 38.5N 66.1W 956 73 0000UTC 17.09.2023 156 41.4N 65.6W 959 53 1200UTC 17.09.2023 168 44.1N 63.8W 970 47

"Anything is possible" as you just said I agree with 100%. That is my main point. It is still early.

OHC: Aug to peak warming: -1991-2 1.49 -2009-10 0.96 -1997-8 0.77 -2002-3 0.67 -2018-9 0.66 With August of 2023 at +1.09, these five suggest a peak of +1.75+ and two of them even suggest a peak of +2.0+. My point is that I feel that it is too early to have a lot of confidence that the OHC won't make it to +1.75+ for this event. Also, consider how fast it rewarmed from late July to late August.

So, the typically overly dramatic JB is predicting Lee still hasn't peaked and that it later falls to 920 mb! I feel this is highly unlikely considering history and its progged too slow speed, which will likely lead to too much SST cooling in advance of the center. Getting pressure that low in this part of the Atlantic is rare enough before even considering potential SST cooling from too slow movement. Plus, the wake from Franklin will be a factor once west of Bermuda.

1) 1st year Nino OHC peak month since 1979: 1979: Nov 1982: Oct 1987: Jan 1992: Feb 1994: Nov 1997: Oct 2002: Oct 2005: Mar 2006: Nov 2009: Nov 2014: Nov 2018: Oct -None of the 12 1st year El Niño events peaked earlier than Oct for full month average -Avg is Nov/Dec; median is Nov -The warmest so far this year per 3rd column of monthly OHC link below is +1.40 of June. Out of 12 1st year Niños, 10 warmed 0.6+ above June to reach peak. The smallest warming above June was the 0.31 of 1997. -Thus the odds that the OHC already peaked in June or even this month are low and an ultimate peak of +1.7+ is heavily favored. Monthly OHC: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 2) The PDF corrected CFS is predicting only ~+1.1 for Sep Nino 3.4. In order for that to verify, Nino 3.4 would need to plunge to ~+0.75 within the next two weeks or so. Thus the PDF corrected CFS is almost definitely going to verify way too cool for Sep. Griteater said it was "on crack":

0Z Euro hits NE NS 0Z on 9/18 at 962 mb

The 0Z GEFS US hits went back down to 4 (13%) (9/16-8): 3 ME, 1 NY So, last 7 GEFS runs: 13%, 26%, 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

Would you please provide a link to a table with the monthly 40 mb QBO? TIA

The 18Z GEFS has the most US hits yet by a good margin with 8 (26%) (9/16-7): 3 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY/RI, 1 NC Last 6 GEFS: 18Z 9/9 26% 12Z 9/9 16% 6Z 9/9 16% 0Z 9/9 10% 18Z 9/8 10% 12Z 9/8 10%

The last two UK runs have Lee get as far W as 67.7W. More importantly imo they both don't have the lowest SLP until 0Z on 9/16, when it gets down to the low 940s on both runs. That's quite low for the usually conservative UK and tells me that a significantly stronger storm than the current strength is quite possible even going out a good number of days from now. 12Z HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 57.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2023 0 19.8N 57.7W 955 79 0000UTC 10.09.2023 12 20.6N 58.9W 961 71 1200UTC 10.09.2023 24 21.4N 60.3W 957 80 0000UTC 11.09.2023 36 22.2N 61.4W 953 82 1200UTC 11.09.2023 48 22.8N 62.6W 953 84 0000UTC 12.09.2023 60 23.2N 64.0W 948 85 1200UTC 12.09.2023 72 23.5N 65.4W 949 90 0000UTC 13.09.2023 84 23.8N 66.3W 942 90 1200UTC 13.09.2023 96 24.1N 67.3W 953 74 0000UTC 14.09.2023 108 24.6N 67.5W 946 77 1200UTC 14.09.2023 120 25.8N 67.7W 952 76 0000UTC 15.09.2023 132 27.3N 67.3W 947 79 1200UTC 15.09.2023 144 28.8N 67.2W 944 81 0000UTC 16.09.2023 156 30.3N 66.7W 941 70 1200UTC 16.09.2023 168 32.2N 66.5W 949 68

Or other 12Zs, like the inferior JMA, which recurves sharply and never even gets close to Canada. Or the (inferior?) KMA, which skims NS and then hits Newfoundland. Or the ICON/CMC, which hit NS. Or the quite inferior NAVGEM, which heads toward Newfoundland. The Euro is the only one of these 7 op models that hits the NE and the only other run to do so was the 12Z of 9/7. But then again why go with any operational in particular? Why do we need a definite yes or no when neither is there this far out and instead why not just go with the idea that Lee bears watching for the continued small chance of a NE hit and a bigger chance for a Canada hit? This is a forecasting discussion. We have these discussions because of the uncertainty.

Looking at current SSTs and the NHC path, SSTs don't fall below 29C until after 120 hours. That's when the cooler Franklin wake would have a significant impact. So, until then, they're mainly 29-30C, plenty warm.

You and I know that nothing has changed due to one operational Euro run. Ensembles are the way to go and they've continued to suggest a low chance. They keep showing outliers run after run. Chance still remains low but nowhere near zero. I'm still near 10%.

12Z EPS has ~6 (12%) (9/17-19) US hits excluding operational with 3 ME and 3 MA. So, it has increased again though nowhere near as high as the 9/7 runs and hits are later on average. 9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA) 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

I counted 5 (16%) US landfalls (9/15-17) on the 12Z GEFS with 3 ME, 1 MA, and 1 NY/RI. Last 5 GEFS: 16%, 16%, 10%, 10%, 10%

GEFS has been showing 10-16% US hits for the last 5+ runs. EPS has shown 6-24% the last 7 runs. So, it hasn't been anywhere near totally dismissed by these ensembles.

It was 963 mb as of last evening but then the recon from 2 hrs ago showed 956 mb. And then this showed 100 knts/still major 954 mb as of 12Z: AL, 13, 2023090912, , BEST, 0, 200N, 578W, 100, 954, HU

6Z GEFS: 5 (16%) US hits (3 ME, 1 NY, 1 NJ) (9/16-7) vs 3 on prior 3 runs. Just passing along facts. Use the info however one wishes. I still think the chance is low (~10%) but still not yet near zero. Still too far out with runs like this.

The 0Z EPS had another drop in US landfalls to the lowest of the last 5 runs: 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

Indeed, the Euro is jumping around so much run to run. It hit NS on the prior run. This run, like the one from 24 hours earlier misses all land through 240 but is more than 24 hours slower.

0Z Euro 192 300+ miles SSW of 12Z