Great Snow 1717

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that's the actual difference between simulation and science.

it is very similar to retirement fund projections that project someone will become a millionaire.... someone isn't a millionaire until actually becoming a millionaire and remains above that level....

10 minutes ago, dseagull said:

I will retrieve my logbook when I finally get moving today.   Been fighting a bug for a few days.  

 

But, you would be correct with the 2014-2015 winter.  I had between 29 and 30 one morning, from Absecon Inlet to Manasquan Inlet for the duration of the trip.  I remember that morning well. I had to knock ice off the hull several times as it built up.   It was a still morning, so my transducer was constantly in slush.  I didn't drop any instruments to see what the stratification was like.  

Warmest was in Cape May, but I don't remember it as well. Summer SST are much more variable, due to upwelling events and proximity to inlets and rivers.  For bay water, I have exceeded 90 many times.   For the ocean within 3 miles, I can only remember achieving 85-86 a few times.  Offshore, in the Norfolk canyon, we came very near 90 when an insane eddy broke off the GS.  Marlin Heaven, no tuna.  

I should take the time to input some of my data at one point.  This would ultimately be a difficult task because my data isn't consistent, since I travel so often.  The USGS site is great for looking at logs from individual stations.  I can guide you through accessing this information, if you don't already do so.  

 

Time for a cup of coffee and off to haul the rig.  The bug going around is no joke.  Be well.  

wishing you all the best in your fight..

38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

there is plenty to talk about regarding the mid month pattern change but some of your stuff now is not even scientific related

..it isn't a pattern change until it actually happens and it remains in place for at least 3 weeks..

Just now, DavisStraight said:

I'm cutting my toenails, have to do it every 5 weeks.

Perhaps they will host a 2nd webinar for those of us who can't attend tonight's webinar...there is so much to discuss....

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Anyone wishing to relive the glory of our winter so far You're invited to a webinar tonight at 7:00 p.m. Hurry space is limited!

 

https://www.weather.gov/box/webinars

I'm cleaning my sock draw tonight...

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

nice try but no lol...

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Around a foot.

..while I measured 16.5 in methuen....

24 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Potential flurries on the 14th.  Stay safe everyone

Thanks for the heads up!

27 minutes ago, gonegalt said:

Caribou NWS called it a "true Alberta Clipper" in disco other day. Don't know why the other Alberta Clippers are false.

Snow beginning, looking for up to 6". All amounts are welcome.

Certainly worth tracking here though the Connecticutians huff from the tropics of New England that it doesn't count.

 

 

Back in the day this type of system was always referred to as an Alberta Clipper.  And there were more of them back then. 

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't really think this is a clipper, but you can argue the main s/w energy traversing northern Maine is more of a clipper. It's ultimately an amplifying shortwave trough driving a sfc cold front through the region. Moisture convergence along the front as it pushes towards the coast results in a narrow area of precipitation (probably rain or a rain/snow mix).

..well this morning every TV met referred to it as a clipper

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People just need to realize we live in a feast or famine climate, it's why people with "snow" in their names have an unrealistic idea of what our climate is really like and get bipolar this time of year.

I selected my screen name because of the historical snowfall in 1717. I got to experience that in 2015. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for the warmest first 2 weeks of February on record for the CONUS.

 

 

 

no surprise at all..

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

More phasing 

That is the equivalent of a Buffalo Bills FG attempt in the playoffs...

Just now, LibertyBell said:

The last time we had a double digit March snowfall here was March 1993 and that changed to rain after dropping 11 inches.

It was an exceptional situation-- you need something like that to get big March snows for urban areas.

 

..at least the weather will be good for the cross country drive!

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not really that great for urban areas though.  March 2015 was the last winter I would call really wintry here.  When March is your snowiest month it means that the winter has been really bad.

 

Depending on March to save a terrible winter is the equivalent of depending on a 1970 AMC Gremlin for a cross country road trip..

32 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The outcomes to date have been pretty damn textbook significant El Niño. 
 

Just following that seasonal forecast would have yield great accuracy results to date

correct

until the parade of storms in to the Pacific NW comes to an end...

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s been a historically warm DJF, snowfall aside

the upcoming meltdowns are going to be epic!!

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How long do you see the theorized "cold" period lasting if it does happen? Not more than 2 weeks starting from President's Day right?

30-45 minutes???

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Where are you located? Plenty of frost in this area! I have an open electrical trench on a job site because everything is frozen solid. Maybe I should let some of you know where it is... save you money on toasters

Methuen..

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Didn’t even hit freezing last night. 

dropped down to 29 here in NE Mass..morning lows have been well above average for days 

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We need snowy Decembers more than we need snowy Marches Chris.

Most of our snowy winters started with a snowy December.

I'll take a snowy December over a snowy March...

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Sure wet ground from 33-35F rain that preceded it. But if that didn’t fall first, the ground wasn’t prohibitively warm. That’s the point everyone else is making. 

there isn't any frost in the ground...

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Thanks. I will. Will you be charging my Blue Cross or bill me directly?

Nah, it's on the house this time, next time bring all of your credit cards...

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Losing my sanity for not seeing the sun for two weeks is not my choice. It just happens. 

Focus on positive things in your life...regardless of the weather there is plenty of enjoyable activities