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JC-CT

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Everything posted by JC-CT

  1. JC-CT
    And my kids' school just cancelled both in-person and remote learning tomorrow as well.
  2. JC-CT
    It means that the layer of air that could melt the snow is about 5,000-10,000 feet up in the air. So while lower surface temps don't hurt, they won't save anyone from a melting layer in those "mid levels."
  3. JC-CT
    Thanks, I've raked on him enough today.
  4. JC-CT
    The potential warm layer is between 700-800mb
  5. JC-CT
    Seems like there is still some spread in the timing of the east push on the EPS
  6. JC-CT
    A jack in the hills of New Haven and/or Fairfield counties is possible.
  7. JC-CT
    BOX spelled "Fr" wrong, how embarrassing.
  8. JC-CT
    Well that's like saying playing chess is what humans are for...yes, but a computer can do it much, much better.
  9. JC-CT
    That's what machine learning is...basically, let the computer mix and match its own variables to come up with a formula that works through trial and error. A lot of times they end up getting these machine-learned programs and nobody knows how the heck they actually work.
  10. JC-CT
    check out the banter thread
  11. JC-CT
  12. JC-CT
    correct
  13. JC-CT
    Yep. I want that for weather models. By the time it is done analyzing the GFS, it will have taught itself to facepalm.
  14. JC-CT
    I'm not dismissing anything, I'm trying to understand why it would produce an IP ptype with that sounding. You're right that it might be more complex than just being below freezing, but I can't imagine that there is a warm layer that the model uses in its ptype algorithm but it wouldn't show it in the sounding. This is what I found, it's generally over my head when it starts talking about max rain mixing ratio. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/31/2/waf-d-15-0136_1.xml
  15. JC-CT
    I want a machine learning model that learns how all the other models fck up and adjusts for them
  16. JC-CT
    @Hoth with the 30 incher?
  17. JC-CT
    if it doesn't pick up on it, then how is an algorithm based on its output showing sleet?
  18. JC-CT
    No
  19. JC-CT
  20. JC-CT
    well the lift is below the DGZ so I doubt it's high-ratio stuff
  21. JC-CT
    It doesn't make a lot of sense on the soundings
  22. JC-CT
    I did but it pains me. Then I used it up again.
  23. JC-CT
    It's only out to 14z on the NOAA site but you can pick the domain https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rap_jet&domain=t3&run_time=16+Dec+2020+-+14Z
  24. JC-CT
    It's basically the 12z NAM
  25. JC-CT
    I didn't say right now
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