JC-CT
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Everything posted by JC-CT
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Ah, I clicked on the maritimes, but I'm guessing we are talking about the same thing CORRECTION: we are not...check out the one I'm seeing lol
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3rd?
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You'd think with all the cooks in the proverbial kitchen, uncertainty should be elevated.
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That sounds right
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Isn't it the shortwave that comes on shore in British Columbia around 0z Thursday that flattens the ridge?
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Yeah but I recall one that was just kind of a moderate event but then you just kept snowing. and snowing. and snowing.
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That was the scooter special, right?
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Actually, I noticed that yesterday, probably prompted by one of your posts. None of the teleconnections looked classically impressive, but I guess together they make the right soup?
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No worries, I'm just really starting to look at post Friday OP runs seriously so I am probably missing a level of understanding of the model evolution that others have. Like to me, it's "what weekend deal?" because the ensembles have been a dartboard at local bar.
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Absolutely...we are due to congratulate Albany lol.
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Wait wait, I still think we are getting things mixed up...Monday is the 17th, that's the 168 hour prog I posted. That's the third wave, correct? Do you mean the "Sunday" deal? Part of the problem, like I just posted, is that the OP timing is just one of many possible timings being shown on the ensembles. The EPS is definitely centering around Monday, while the OP GFS shows Sunday and Tuesday.
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Sure, I think it's a long shot, but at least we have a pretty good sense of what would need to change and the fact that we are even discussing that those level of changes are even possible should be an indication that it could also just as easily (as that) trend faster and more progressive while the next on comes in delayed, and then there you go, the possibility of at least a decent event. Just seems like we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, that's all.
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I see, thanks. So maybe put another way, I'm not sure why people are getting so hung up on the immediate shortwave after Friday having to be the one. The OP runs are going to be completely off on the timing at this range anyway.
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Friday is getting close enough to talk about, but shouldn't "low confidence in a significant system" be the baseline for 5+ days out anyway?
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Not sure I understand the confidence level in writing off this one...maybe I'm the weenie.
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GEFS still look like a peppering of low pressure off the east coast for Mon-Wed to me. Not sure I'm ready to call anything for that
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Genuine question, haven't been following this every model run - did the Euro ever have it?
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ask Kevin what trick he uses to get BDL dews in the summer
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We might as well just say that 2015 is walking through the door. Not sure how else to get expectations any higher lol.
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Dude now I'm about to make myself a hot fudge sundae, why'd you do me like that
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Fair
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Deep lol
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The GFS version I could see. The ggem looked, i dont know, just wrong. It just felt wrong.
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GFS actually kind of looks like the ridiculous ggem from 12z yesterday, did anyone catch that one? Captured a low from the Bahamas to the benchmark in like 6 hours. And no, I dont mean Bermuda, I mean the Bahamas.
