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Posts posted by Windspeed

  1. Boring looking pattern for severe,for us anyways in the Valley.The Euro seemingly is flip flopping quite a bit recently. Probably are going to have to wait several more days this is when the MJO goes into 8-1-2 outside the COD.Today it looks more like the trough axis is going to basically be around the Valley somewhere mid range and possibly beyond with BN temps,least that how it looks today
    ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591                                           12Z APR04                2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SAT 12Z 04-APR   0.2     1.8       1              36               3       2    SAT 18Z 04-APR  10.0     2.0       0              29               4       4    SUN 00Z 05-APR   5.4     3.3      -1    1073      26   39.33       3       4    SUN 06Z 05-APR   0.6     3.2       0    1087      33   39.33       3       3    SUN 12Z 05-APR  -1.8     2.9       1    1096      18   39.33       3       2    SUN 18Z 05-APR  10.2     2.8       1    1051       7   39.33       5       3    MON 00Z 06-APR   6.2     3.3       1              13               5       5    MON 06Z 06-APR   0.0     3.6       2               6               6       4    MON 12Z 06-APR  -1.7     3.2       3              -2               7       4    MON 18Z 06-APR  10.6     3.0       2              -5               8       6    TUE 00Z 07-APR   6.9     4.8      -1               3               7       8    TUE 06Z 07-APR   3.2     5.4      -2              32               7       8    TUE 12Z 07-APR   2.7     5.6      -2              42               7       9    TUE 18Z 07-APR  12.7     5.8      -4             -20               8      11    WED 00Z 08-APR   8.2     7.9      -7              -7               7      12    WED 06Z 08-APR   5.8     8.8      -7             -20               7      13    WED 12Z 08-APR   6.1     6.8      -6             -17               5      10    WED 18Z 08-APR  12.5     8.0      -7             -24               5      11    THU 00Z 09-APR   9.3     8.2     -10             -23               4      12    THU 06Z 09-APR   6.1     8.3     -12             -23               2      12    THU 12Z 09-APR   3.5     3.8      -8              22               0       7    THU 18Z 09-APR   4.2     0.9      -5              -6              -1       3    FRI 00Z 10-APR  -0.2    -3.3      -5               4              -4       0    FRI 06Z 10-APR  -5.1    -6.6      -2              31              -6      -4    FRI 12Z 10-APR  -8.3    -9.9       0              -8              -8      -8    FRI 18Z 10-APR  -0.9    -8.8      -1             -42              -8      -7    SAT 00Z 11-APR  -3.6    -7.2      -3             -39              -9      -7    SAT 06Z 11-APR  -8.9    -8.4      -1             -32             -10      -9    SAT 12Z 11-APR  -9.5    -9.3       1              -1             -10     -10    SAT 18Z 11-APR   0.1    -7.7       0              -4              -9      -9    SUN 00Z 12-APR  -3.2    -6.2      -1             -13              -8      -7    SUN 06Z 12-APR  -7.9    -3.9       0              -1              -7      -7    SUN 12Z 12-APR  -8.9    -1.4       0               4              -5      -5    SUN 18Z 12-APR   5.4    -0.7      -1               1              -2      -1    MON 00Z 13-APR   1.7     0.2      -1              21              -1       1    MON 06Z 13-APR  -5.1    -0.9       4              27               0      -3    MON 12Z 13-APR  -6.7    -4.8       7              34              -1      -6    MON 18Z 13-APR  -2.6    -6.1       9              34               1      -6    TUE 00Z 14-APR  -7.3    -7.1      10    1059      39   39.34       0      -8    TUE 06Z 14-APR  -9.5    -7.8      10    1071      41   39.34      -1      -8    TUE 12Z 14-APR  -8.5    -8.1      10    1055      44   39.33      -2     -10    


    FWIW, I've read data ingestion for the major models is being affected by a lack of global flights. I do not know how accurate this is or, if an issue, how wacky mid-to-long range modeling will become as we go forward the next month.

  2. Seasonal forecasts are beginning to make their way out from respected scientists in the field to media and news outlets. The majority of specialists are predicting a hurricane season with above-normal activity. ENSO looks to be swinging neutral to perhaps even a La Niña by July-September. Western Atlantic subtropical and tropical SSTs are running above average overall with some particularly noticeable 2-3°+C deviations in the GOM and W. Caribbean. Could 2020 be hyperactive? AMO and NAO may present both favorable patterns for not only hurricanes in the MDR, but potential land threats to the W. Caribbean and GOM as well this season. Bermuda-Azores ridging may also dominate the SER/WAR steering pattern during Cape Verde season. This might be a year where we even see a few long-trackers reach Central America.


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  3. -NAO incoming? Some of the globals are hinting into next week but there is clearly an NAO influencing beast near Iceland showing up in the recent ECMWF and Ukie runs. The 12z Ukie is nuts. 1058hpa and 600dm vacuum buster incoming..



    Edit: Will be interesting to see if this shifts and locks down into a classic Greenland block or splits anticyclonically into a +NAO/N. Euro block. Therefore, I may've been a wee bit premature. I suppose -NAO isn't necessarily a sure thing.

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  4. I agree, Carver. I think this Summer is probably leaning hot and dry for interior SE CONUS. Nino 3-4 is still about average to slightly above near surface but there is sub 22-24° isotherm progressing upward and Nino 1-2 is already running 24° near surface. A moderate La Niña looks in play at this point, and orientation of the Azores-Bermuda ridge axis may very well torch us July-September. NMME guidance suggests a strong La Niña presence into Winter. Still, high and dry isn't an absolute certainty. You never know how much low-level tropical feed can downplay/offset potential drought. Yes, WATL 500dm heights are critical to overall pattern but it doesn't take too much displacement to swing dry hot vs humid hot with plenty of afternoon/evening convective showers.


    OTOH, hints that the Atlantic MDR may run quite bit above normal by July. The deep MDR, especially the 50°W to the Verdes is running above average. Are we looking at a hyperactive NATL tropical season? I am starting to think so. Again, how strong do Western ATL heights remain in place through late September? Will there be enough blocking in place to keep everything south of the region? This may be a bad year for Mexico and W Caribbean impacts. But something may sneak up here to alleviate our dry conditions as well. That is to say, I wouldn't count out some early tropical season respite (June-July) from the GOM with a few stalled-out variety tropical lows. August-September might truly be the dog days of Summer this year however.


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  5. Plenty of incredible damage videos and images, but this particular photo of the damage path looking east towards Cookeville is disturbing. Any number of deaths is awful and I am certainly not downplaying this tragedy for those suffering, only just to say that considering the time of night and the track/damage path, it is perhaps a miracle the numbers aren't much higher. Please consider finding a legitimate donation fund setup to help those in need.


  6. He's wrong. Looking for attention. I don't see anyone by that name with credentials on Linked In. Currently the Milankovitch Cycles approximately cancel out each other. That's why Climate Science can more reliably zero in on the solar cycle and Carbon. The divergence is startling. Sun is sleeping; temps and CO2 continue up; and previously, they had always all 3 been in lock step.  



    I agree. Not to slander the individual or say they are uneducated, anyone can be wrong in the process of research. I would just be cautious and certainly not trusting. Established science would suggest we are lucky to not be in a Solar maximum, that atmospheric influences might be even more extreme. Though again, divergence in climate is not simply explained by it's hotter, colder, wetter or drier at any specific location. There are, of course, other regional variables; but the idea here is increasing periods of measurable short and long term extreme deviations per climatological norm at any specific geographic location. If anything, that we are not within increased Solar output could be taken as alarming.
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  7. November 2019 - The 1961 to 1965 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been reanalyzed. Revisions to the hurricane database were accomplished by obtaining the original observations collected - mainly by ships, weather stations, the Hurricane Hunter Navy, Air Force, and Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) aircraft reconnaissance planes, and the earliest available satellite images - and assessing the storms based upon our understanding of hurricanes today. The reanalysis also allowed "discovering" of tropical storms and hurricanes that occurred, but were not yet officially recognized as such in the official records. Nine new tropical storms and hurricanes during these five years were discovered and added to the database. Six hurricanes were identified as impacting the United States, one less than originally identified. The hurricane with the worst impact for the United States during these seasons was Betsy in 1965, which killed 75 people in Florida and Louisiana and was the first ever billion dollar hurricane for U.S. damage.  Betsy was upgraded to a Category 4 from a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at landfall in Louisiana, as it is reassessed that it had maximum sustained surface winds of 115 kt (130 mph) and a central pressure of 946 mb. Sandy Delgado, Brenden Moses, Andrew Hagen, Chris Landsea, and the Best Track Change Committee all made substantial contributions toward the reanalysis of these hurricane seasons."

    Of note, aside from the upgrade of Betsy to a Cat 4 as noted above, Carla is also now a confirmed Cat 4 landfall into Texas. Haiti was hit by two Cat 4 hurricanes within two years in Cleo ('64) and Flora ('63). Belize was also impacted by a Cat 4, Hattie, '65.

    Full report can be found here:
    1961-1965 revisions
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  8. Fri 00z ECMWF backed off totals several inches from last night's / Thur 00z op. Maybe .5 to 1.5 inches for most areas up Holston Valley and KTRI. KTYS might get a light dusting. Only significant totals are for some of the higher elevations of SWVA across the highest ridges of Clinch and Walker mountains but that's maxing out around 3 inches so nothing too exciting there. Perhaps there will be another swing in outputs but this just look like the bulk of moisture is going to stay south of the region in time for the cold to play ball. What overriding moisture is remaining will be nosed off until the cold can dam against the Apps. Would need a significant shift in the low and better timing with the cold. Hard to bank on that. If the cold pattern / reinforcement can stay in place perhaps some action around Thanksgiving?

  9. The 00z ECMWF output 1-3 inches across upper East Tennessee to 4-5 inches across the higher elevations of southwest VA is certainly eye-opening. More of a light dusting south of 40. 1-2 for KTYS and perhaps 2-3 for KTRI? It's still way early. My pessimism aside, these outputs may even go up today, tomorrow, perhaps even into the weekend, but I'm not buying into even shallow totals until there is a significant increase. Even then it will probably still be at most 1-2 inches for KTRI and 2-4 for higher elevations to the west and northwest. But any snow is cool for mid-November. So there's some optimism. :)

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