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in Tropical Headquarters
Posted 1 hour ago
in Tennessee Valley
Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM
The wave I posted above when it rolled off Africa is still making its way across the western MDR at a low latitude. It's nothing special, there may be some weak mid-level vorticity. It also isn't the sharpest of wave axii. But it has a favorable upper environment and if convection can coalesce to tighten vorticity or close off a surface low, could be interesting in the southern Antilles and deep Caribbean later this week.
Posted Sunday at 03:34 PM
It's ran out of time to get named. Environment is too hostile. Will be ET soon.
[/b]Edit:[/b] Figures I call this dead to rights and yet convection comes back with a vengeance this evening, though perhaps due to some baroclinic forcing with the low. ATCF has analyzed 35 kt winds. l I'm not sure if the NHC will pull the trigger on Edouard. It may be a very short-lived NS if so.
Posted Saturday at 01:20 AM
The MCV accociated with the old boundary draped off the ECONUS might be forming an LLC under the current MCS complex that went up this evening. Note the circular pattern of the lightning near the highest cloud tops. Possible curved banding forming might be the beginnings of an LLC and we may get a named system out of this sooner than later if it holds together.
Posted June 30
Fairly healthy wave axis with an MCS mid-level vort max south of the Verdes. Who knows if it will persist long with the SAL locked in to its NW. But interesting nonetheless. 12Z ECMWF does have a solution or two that closes off a surface low but there's negligible model support beyond that.
Posted June 23
Classic La Niña taking shape. Questions remain on strength and coverage, especially in 3.4, but it is no doubt kicking in at this point. I suspect even a moderate La Niña would be a safe call, but still can't rule out a --ENSO either.
Posted June 22
What does that show? The azores high seems to keep anything in the MDR on a due west track until the western Caribbean. But, it is still too early for much in that region base don climatology. This would be great in Aug/Sept. Unless there is something I am missing. Such as the area of lower pressures moving west. Not sure if that is pointing out development potential.
We generally see this pattern of strong Azores ridging back down in August, not early July. Typically a beefy late Spring to middle Summer eastern Atlantic Azores ridge is why we generally see SAL and too amped a low-level easterly jet to favor any MDR development. That, and upper level shear and vorticity is not yet favorable. At any rate, the pattern in the animation above may coincide with a favorable MJO [see below] and a relaxation of upper level wind shear across the Caribbean and lower MDR as well.
Posted June 21
Posted June 19
I guess I meant more specifically, how will the upcoming favorable MJO wave influence the SAL. Would the strong SAL we have seen this week be more likely to subside during this period? I’m not familiar with how all this things interact.
How will the current SAL outbreak influence this otherwise favorable period? Is it expected to subside soon?
Looks like AOML's OHC and TCHP maps are ingesting RS data correctly now. Still a vast spread of TCHP for mid-June, but way more realistic.
3 pm and 66 degrees. I don't remember when we've had a stretch of days like this in mid-June before.
Posted June 18
Posted June 17
Notice in long-range modeling, the region of above median precipitation shifts from interior western Africa to off of the western coastal region of Africa, just south of the Cape Verdes, into the Atlantic MDR. The ITCZ and WAM becomes focused there. As such, this suggests that easterly intertropical waves that continue forming over deep interior and eastern Africa, if their energy holds together, will move off the African coast, and should reach a favorable environment for tropical development somewhere within the MDR:
So is the rain that has already fallen in Africa going to impact peak season? In other words, if it totally stops raining right now, are the pieces already in place for an active MDR during peak season?
I'm puzzled, the prior posting by Windspeed shows much above average rainfall in the same area that this unusual amount of dust is coming from. Can someone please help explain?
As for the dust, the Azores ridge is cranking below the 700 hpa level of the atmosphere seen in purple below. This is inducing strong easterly trades off the Sub-Saharan region pulling desert dust along with it. The low-level easterly jet burst will push all the way across the Atlantic over the next 10 days.
Posted June 16
Posted June 15
ECMWF + UKMET long-range precipitation forecast courtes of Ben Noll Weather..
Nice ERA-5 model reanalysis of Hurricane Hugo:
*** stares down [mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention] with The Good, the Bad and the Ugly theme playing ***
Posted June 14
The previous TCHP maps may have been showing old data. This does seem to make sense based on the Gulf Stream data from last week being virtually non-existant for heat content on previous maps. There should be noticeable kinetic energy in the GS off of Florida by this time frame, yet last week's maps were showing zilch there.