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Posts posted by Windspeed

  1. How many years has the Atlantic have more ACE then the WPAC? Can't imagine it happens that often.
    Not going through the entire modern historical record, but it's not frequent. These are the most recent years that the North Atlantic Basin had higher ACE than the NW Pacific Basin.


    Interestingly, the two other hyperactive seasons in the Atlantic, 2004 and 2005, got stomped by the WPAC.
    • Like 1

  2. Model evolution / trends over the past 12 hours are definitely swinging towards a major snowstorm event for the eastern half of the Valley. Also extreme SWVA to Roanoke looking better to avoid a potential sharp cuttoff around KTRI. I suppose I am cautiously optimistic now. See if this can hold serve on the next few runs to gain confidence.


    • Like 6

  3. European monthlies and CFS monthlies just out are both disasters for snow enthusiasts. Tie it in with the latest discussion in our ENSO thread; and, it looks like a mild winter which will require some luck. What's new in the South? 
    I still think the +ABNA phase will offer chances (normal to BN heights SE with above normal heights parts of Canada). Key will be some help from the PNA, NAO or other blocking. Overall though it now looks like cold shots will be brief. I know this is a sentiment shift from my last post in the main December thread. 
    Also tied in with our ENSO thread, severe wx in late winter and early spring looks at least normal with a good chance of greater than normal activity. EC monthlies have Plains season (LOL 5-6 month forecast verbatim) quieter than normal; CFS is normal.
    So I guess chase early season garbage in case there's no late season. Why am I writing about chasing already? Oh yeah the winter monthlies and SSTs.
    Yeah you can always live vicariously through New Englanders.
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    • Weenie 1

  4. Worth pointing out that Central America was hit very hard and we shouldn't forget that. Though Louisiana was certainly beat up this season, the US still has the resources to mitigate and assist our fellow citizens. We shouldn't forget them either. That being said, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and the SW Caribbean were already struggling. Millions of of people are suffering there economically. Now we have a humanitarian crisis as many localized regions are currently devastated. This was a horrific hurricane season.

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  5. I think last Tuesday's outlook was a wrap on the 2020 season folks!

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020
    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
    1. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between 
    the Madeira Islands and the Azores.  This system has become less 
    organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are 
    expected to become less conducive for development as the system 
    moves southwestward during the next day or two.  Although 
    subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue 
    to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira 
    Islands and the Azores through Wednesday.  Additional information on 
    this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo 
    This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
    this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
    resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
    High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
    header FQNT50 LFPW.
    Forecaster Beven


  6. Count on it. Just look at the past few years.
    I should know this, but what is considered the be the most powerful and destructive hurricane to hit the US coast in modern history.
    Camille is what I remember growing up. Andrew with my wife's stories going through it and scenes of destruction, Michael watching online.

    Modern? Well the most destructive is still going to be Katrina for what it did to the MS and LA coastlines. Most powerful? That's still going to be the Labor Day 1935 storm with its ridiculous sub 895 hPa landfall and 185 sustained winds.
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  7. Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. 
    LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. 
    According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h.
    It's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure.
    • Like 1

  8. I had hoped the southern eyewall would miss Providecia. It looks like they weren't so lucky.



    If you notice the image posted of the on-board radar panel here, the island was contained within the southern eyewall's strongest echoes. Though they may not have been crossed by the most intense portion of the inside eyewall edge nor highest core wind. This is only my speculation, of course. It is likely based on the radar image and these ground images that they did get hit by at least Cat 4 sustained winds and gusts even if they might have barely missed Iota's peak wind on the southern inside edge of the eyewall.


  9. FWIW, Eta was a slow mover and spent a long time over that shallow shelf. Though the mix likely recovered somewhat, it's likely only around ~28°C in places at the surface. So Iota has probably reached MPI at that latitude considering the warmer upper tropospheric temperatures. At any rate, it likely won't weaken too much prior to landfall. We're still looking at a high end Cat 4 landfall at least.

  10. If only the wind impacts were the only concern.
    Unfortunately most destruction and death will come from mudslides and inland flooding...just an awful scenario all around.
    Slopes are still saturated from Eta. Make no mistake, about as high a mudflow / lahar event as your going to see for a number of volcanic edifices and steep river gorges.