Windspeed

Accuweather is such a joke. At least show some semblance of professionalism instead of fearmongering like some weenie posting on Reddit.

Also, a "15% chance of 30 named storms or more" seems rather high considering it's only happened once on record. How does a meteorologist even determine that statistic scientifically? "Explosive" as a headline is just clickbaity BS.

The latest NMME now reaches into the heart of the Atlantic tropical season, and it's pretty eye-opening. Mighty strong positive AMO look. Obviously too early to start hyping as things are fluid and we still have a few months of long-range modeling precursors; however, if this pattern does evolve, it would certainly favor a low-shear MDR and long-track setup for Cape Verde hurricanes. SST patterns are not the end all, be all, of said pattern, but such a look could support north-central Atlantic and Bermuda ridging as well.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas4.html

Snowing in Kingsport pretty good now - high side of moderate.

Work in progress as the column moistens. It's like flipping on a switch. We've got moderate flakes falling here now just south of Bristol.

Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi.  Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches.  Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already.  I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches.

Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar.

Wvlt still sticking to guns here… saying that we are not going to see much. How are they making their forecast? Off the NAM? They are going completely opposite of what the NWS is saying. I find that odd.


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Isentropic lift is increasing, and radar is filling with heavy returns along the TN/AL border. That is all moving NE, and as such, we should see a heavy snowband from SW of Knoxville, the I-75 corridor, up into Holston Valley and the I-81 corridor for the remainder of the day. I haven't really seen any of the mesoscales balk yet. Pretty confident in this snowstorm for a large 4-10" swath up the eastern Tennessee watershed, minus the mixing issues that may persist in the Chattanooga area.

There was a set up like this in the early 2000s, I can't remember the year but I was probably 10 miles north of the snow band and it just went on all day with light snow where I got about an inch in 10 hours and just south of me got 4 to 6 inches. It was painful, 24 hours out I was in the bullseye, and was under a WSW for 4-8 inches.  

I actually like the current placement of the precip shield 60-72 hrs out. I feel like suppression might increase totals for the eastern Valley to TN/NC border as we dial into the event. But not so shifting that the I-75 corridor doesn't score big in your neck of the woods. I suppose this is our biggest chance of a good snow in a number of years if modeling doesn't crap the bed this weekend. Hopefully, as the higher resolution mesoscales come into better range, they maintain 3-6" coverage for all or most of East Tennessee.

Nice write-up by Tomer Burg with regards to modeling solutions to this week's winter storm, or, rather, lack of potential. The lead time from 144 hrs to 48 hours was a significant failure across the board.

I'm really digging the setup for next weekend through New Year's week. Cold will be in place. Just need the storm tracks to cooperate.

Supercell west of Nashville is looking prime to produce a strong tornado.

Strong tornado may be in progress now.

"Of the 6,870 hectares of buildings analyzed by emergency satellite products from
@CopernicusEMS
to estimate damage from #Otis to #Acapulco , 6,665 hectares (97 %) were affected, including 6,343 hectares ( 92 %) of damaged or destroyed buildings. Catastrophic."

Anyone know what kind of building codes they have there?  These high rises look modern with sleek glass but I wonder how well they are actually built...

The high-rise structures are built to withstand some pretty strong EQs. Acapulco exists on a subduction zone prone to violent quakes. Of course, that doesn't mean the guts of floors didn't have cheaper materials. But I'd imagine some of these more expensive high-rises that got gutted weren't cheap. The rich and famous like their Acapulco.

The high rise damage is insane.

The eye fill was right at landfall. Yes, you have to take into account parallax. You also have to attribute eyefill most likely to the rugged terrain that immediately began disrupting the core at landfall. But as they say, too little too late. No doubt it was a Cat 5 landfall to me.

I don't even know if the surge is going to be that limited that bay is looking like a prime catcher's mitt for this path

Perhaps for something right on the immediate waterfront in the bay due to wave action on top of some surge. But the water is rather deep for fetch versus abrupt elevation change. Everything away from the immediate waterfront is above 6 ft in much of Acapulco. Nobody should be on the harbour walls unless they're being careless. Now that being said, the flat estuaries around the airport and lagoons both east and west of Acapulco would be far more susceptible to surge. But again, this is a very small hurricane, despite its intensity. Wind and run-off are my greatest concerns for the greater populace and Otis' core.

It has a small core going over a super populated area and it's going to meander there for a bit

I'm by no means downplaying that. Aside from a limited surge, the situation is dire. It's just a person has good odds, even avoiding injury, sheltering in a solid structure. If a slope gives way into the same described structure. Well, it's not good either way, but to the point, it's far more difficult to survive the latter.

Also can’t forget flooding as the rain is squeezed out by the higher elevations.

Yes, generally, the surge isn't going to be the most dangerous aspect of Otis, despite it being a Cat 5. It has a small core. Winds will be devastating within the eyewall, especially for elevated structures on sloped terrain. And, of course, mudslides, which still remain the greatest threat to life regardless of catastrophic wind.

Helpful post regarding surge prone areas via Jeff Masters:

Forecast has it going west of Acapulco, but way too close for comfort.

I think we're about to get some bad news. Trichoidal wobbles aside, it looks like Otis is going to turn too late to miss Acapulco proper. Even still, urban coastal communities extend east and west along the coastline. The core of Otis may move right over some densely populated areas.

Wow... There's not really much to add here other than Otis has a very small core. The worst wind damage should be confined to a small area, but it may be pretty bad. The flooding is going to be widespread with the slow motion. I'm still hoping for the eyewall to begin breaking down and weakening some prior to landfall since it is moving slow versus faster motion and carrying momentum. Perhaps some terrain influences.

ACE has now surpassed 140 thanks to Hurricane Tammy's persistence. Barring some ridiculous unforseen WCARIB activity during the remaining weeks of the season, I think we're nearing the close. Consider that last year's total ACE didn't even surpass 100, despite one of the costliest hurricanes in American history. Yet, yadda yadda, it only takes one. It's still one of the weirdest El Niño years in my lifetime, but thanks to a strong +AMO, this was a very active season.

I must add that having a strong El Niño was a blessing. Despite the overall activity, quite a bulky pattern of shear managed to keep many of our MDR systems in check. And virtually nothing strong got within a whiff of the SE CONUS, beyond the homegrown WCARIB/GOM major hurricane Idalia. Imagine long-trackers without the shear? Could have been another 2017.

Two cat 4 LFs back to back in same season… 

Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast.

Otis is looking rather mean at present..

Good lord, so much activity going on world-wide (despite the usual suspect WPAC), I can't keep up. Of course, work...