J.Spin

I don’t see March 2020 on that list, so I don’t know how it went down there, but my data are rather interesting for March up here at our site, with a couple of key points: 1) As of March 3rd this season, we’d already picked up as much snowfall as the entirety of last season (142.1”). We’ve of course had additional snow since that point, so we’re already going to outperform last season with respect to snowfall, it’s just a question of by how much. 2) As of March 14th this month, we’d already picked up (within a tenth of an inch) as much snowfall as the entirety of last March (12.9”), so any more snowfall this March will actually push it past last March. I guess those trends are for this area, but if people are concerned about the lack of snowfall this March, what was the situation last March?

Yeah, fantastic out there yesterday. We headed up for an afternoon session at Timberline with its classic western-facing afternoon sun. The temperatures were quite pleasant, but despite the decent warmth with temperatures in the 40s to around 50 F, there were still different surfaces out there. Terrain right in the sun on the main part of Timberline was mostly good corn snow, but up around 2,500’ or so, snow that was not in the sun was still in a more frozen, winter-like state. In some lower elevation areas that were only partially in the sun, there were also some areas of mushy/sticky snow because it had not been cycled enough yet for complete corn. I think we’re planning to head out for another afternoon session today – it’s even warmer, and we did get another freeze-thaw cycle overnight, so that might change the dynamics of which areas have which types of snow surfaces. A few shots from yesterday:

PF is the expert on this, but having some rain and warmth is a normal part of the spring ski season around here. In terms of effects on the snow, there’s really no comparison when it comes to getting rain in late March or April to rains and warmth at Christmas – this is an entirely different type of snowpack. Whether it’s typical spring rains, or typical spring warmth, the trails with marginal coverage are going to be getting thin in either case. The only way that process is going to be slowed for the lower elevations as we move toward April is with below average temperatures. If a resort around here has its season ended by a spring rainstorm, then they either have to be a resort that is running 100% on natural snow, or that’s the approximate planned closing date for the resort anyway. These resorts aren’t just guessing when it comes to how much snow they put down on their trails – they put down a required amount of snow to hit their target date with appropriate coverage under normal New England spring weather. In all my years of skiing, I’ve just never seen the resorts that plan to stay open get shut down around here due to spring rains. I’d be much more worried about snowpack loss if we had a week of early heat like we did that one season – that really seemed to make a substantial dent in the snowpack that spring. Hopefully PF will weigh in, since he’s in mountain operations and knows what they watch for with regard to the spring snowpack progression.

I’m not sure why folks are so worried about getting into the warm sector of a storm at this point in the season? The relevant sections of the snowpack have pretty much gone isothermal at this point, so it’s not like warmth is going to ruin any pristine midwinter surfaces – it’s all spring snow now. The only thing to even concern oneself about with regard to rain at this point in the season is the potential inconvenience that arises if you happen to have to ski plans on the specific day it rains. Other than that, rain on this type of snow is pretty much irrelevant, the snowpack just stays as corn snow (or frozen granular if temperatures are below freezing).

That’s right, there’s still a long way to go on the potential snowfall front up here in the mountains of NNE. Even down here at our elevation, average snowfall from this point out is still ~15 inches, and it should be even more up at your elevation. It’s just a matter of when we get back in the storm track.

Season snowfall through today at our site is 148.4”, which is about 7 to 8 inches ahead of average, but well within the average range. That current total is actually average seasonal snowfall for our site at the end of March. If the season ended with this total, then the snowfall would come in below average, and the grade would probably have to be less than a C (average), so perhaps something in the C- range. Indeed, we had a great stretch of snow preservation and nice ski conditions in the January/February period, but we also had that relatively slow early season through some point in January. November through January is a solid chunk of the season that can have some great skiing around here if base builds at a normal pace. Using the seasonal snowfall average for Jay Peak that they currently report on their website (359”), and scaling proportionately using my running average, they should be over 300” of snow by now. They’re currently indicating 259” on the season, so I’d argue they’re behind average pace. There’s still a good 4 to 6 weeks of potential snowfall season to go though (which doesn’t include May since it’s really a wild card), so we’re certainly not at the point up here where we should consider any of these seasonal totals final just yet.

That seems about right from what I’ve been hearing in the forum. And indeed, it is probably harder for us in Northern Greens upslope land to have total dud seasons with respect to snowfall, since that potentially “more reliable” snow is probably a bigger component of our annual snowfall than it is in most other spots in the region. It might even be a bit more than just the upslope too, because it seems like the Northern Greens also have that factor of being well positioned (in a windward sense) for those general bread and butter Clipper systems to get something out of most of them. At the same time, it also seems very tough for us to have totally outrageous, well above average snowfall seasons. All those extra little bread and butter systems and upslope deliveries are already baked into the climate numbers, so getting extra storms, and that “little bit extra” snow out of every storm is par for the course. So it takes a special pattern over a prolonged period to really get well above the already somewhat amped up snowfall numbers. As much as having the ability to experience incredible “way above average” snowfall seasons might be nice, that consistency/reliability factor is far superior for one’s typical season-long ski experience. And, not getting huge, above average snowfall seasons isn’t really a big deal anyway if the status quo climate snow is already way up there on the quality scale.

Seeing your nice images and catching Bolton’s report of 4-6” in the past 48 hours was definitely enough to convince me to head out for some turns yesterday. And of course, watching it snow huge flakes down at the house and on the Bolton Valley Webcam reinforced that sentiment. I wanted to head up before that colder air was supposed to move in later in the afternoon, so I hit the mountain in the late morning. With those strong winds blowing from the northwest, it wasn’t at all surprising to see in the snow report that the Vista Quad and Wilderness Double, being the highest elevation lifts, were on wind hold. With that in mind, I decided to make it a hybrid outing of both riding the lifts and skinning to get efficient access to the fresh powder. The Mid Mountain Chair was running, so I ended up using that for a quick elevation assist over to the Wilderness area. I followed some folks that were using a nifty access route around the mid-mountain snowmaking pond to get to Wilderness. I generally found powder depths topping out around 6” just like the snow report indicated, aside from wind scoured or drifted areas, or trails that had been groomed during the storm. Low angle terrain on fat boards was what I’d been planning to hit, and that definitely delivered. The lift assist from the Mid Mountain Chair was just right for cycling the bottom half of the Wilderness terrain, which had the kind of pitch this snow called for. Anything with moderate pitch or above was just too steep for the available snow, and you’d be hitting the scratchy subsurface unless you were in a drifted area. The BTV NWS forecast discussion said that the precipitation would be somewhat cellular during the day, and indeed that’s just what I experienced out on the mountain. At times it would be whiteout conditions with near-zero visibility, and at other times that snowfall would wane and it would almost look like the sun wanted to break through. Temperatures started out in the 20s F, but were down into the teens F by the time I was leaving, so that colder air was moving in as scheduled. A few shots from yesterday’s outing:

Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.12” L.E. Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 28.9 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.12” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 29.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

Event totals: 2.1” Snow/0.06” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.1 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 26.4 F Sky: Snow (2 to 6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Speaking of systems, I just looked outside and I see that we’ve got some snow falling in association with this next one moving into the area.

I’m not sure it would make any difference with respect to what they’re calling a “storm” though – the sort of systems that become a bit more challenging to break into discrete events don’t even come up on people’s radar as either events or non-events; they’re for the most part ignored as snow showers, or end up being nothing at all outside of the mountains. I use the BTV NWS forecast discussion to assign the specific storms exactly as they describe them, and I’ll only occasionally have to go to the models to dissect the situation myself if they don’t detail the specific breakdown of the systems in the AFD. I generally break down storms into the smallest definable units possible, so if anything, that would bias the numbers toward smaller events, not larger ones. You can see from the list below that I pasted in my response to wxeye – the vast majority of those storms were quite well defined, and over half of them were even notable synoptic storms that earned a name at the national level. The least defined storm in that list is maybe the 11/15/2020 one? But even that one had a defined surface low. The example you provided above would never be defined as an individual storm in my view, in that I’d never just group multiple days of similar “pattern” snows into some sort of system. There would at least be a defined upper level low creating the precipitation, and more than likely there would be discrete shortwaves involved, and they would each get defined as an individual system if at all possible. Most places just don’t get winter weather like we do here, where it actually does snow for days and days, and one system often blends into the next. It’s dramatically different from the sort of systems they typically seem to get in SNE and father south along the coastal plain, and I can understand why Phin says it requires a change in mentality. You can see the list of all this season’s storms delivering greater than 3.5” at our site below though, and I agree that it’s surprising that wxeye would have missed out on all of them post 12/17? I’m not sure how he records his storm data, but I don’t think anyone limits an actual full storm total to simply the 24 hour segments broken up by arbitrary observations times. That would obviously break many storms in half artificially if the bulk of their snowfall happened to span the observations time. 12.2” 1/16/2021 Winter Storm Malcolm - Midwest low forming triple point low over New England 10.2” 2/2/2021 Winter Storm Orlena - slow moving system along Northeast coast 8.4” 1/21/2021 Weakening low pressure tracking through southern Quebec 8.2” 2/9/2021 Winter Storm Roland - weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region 7.7” 2/19/2021 Winter Storm Viola - low SE of benchmark with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow 7.4” 2/5/2021 Winter Storm Peggy - deep, mature cyclone moving north through the Great Lakes 7.1” 11/1/2020 Surface/upper-level trough + upslope from low departing near Northern Maine 6.0” 3/2/2021 Well-defined shortwave trough moving into the area 5.9” 12/26/2020 Lake-effect snow band extending northeastward off Lake Ontario 5.8” 1/1/2021 Winter Storm John - low to our west redeveloping over Gulf of Maine 5.5” 11/15/2020 Broad trough with surface low passing through central Quebec + backside LES/upslope 5.3” 11/2/2020 Clipper/upper-level shortwave 4.9” 12/17/2020 Winter Storm Gail - coastal storm tight to NJ coast heading eastward 4.5” 2/15/2021 Winter Storm Uri - low pressure moving through New England with mixed precipitation 3.8” 1/26/2021 Winter Storm Nathaniel - low pressure tracking south of New England 3.8” 12/5/2020 Winter Storm Eartha - compact coastal storm tracking near Cape Cod + departing upslope

I do recall a period a few years back when PF was monitoring a stretch where hadn’t had a warning-level event for quite some time, but I’m not sure if I’ve ever looked into periods without hitting storm totals of a certain threshold the way you guys have this season. It could be due in part to the snowfall climate over here in the Northern Greens – I’m just used to recording very frequent, modest storms. I think it would probably take a long time before I noticed something like that. It might come to mind though in a season that was way behind average snowfall though, being curious about what was missing. Looking into my data for the season, we’ve had 16 storms with snow totals >3.5” this season, and most of them are post-12/17. We may be somewhat behind average pace on larger storms this season though, in that we typically average one storm of ≥20”, and two storms ≥15”, and we haven’t had any storms hit those thresholds yet. We also average three storms of ≥12”, and we’ve only had one that just barely made the cut. We seem to be roughly on track (±1) for storms in the 6-10” range though, so perhaps even around here it’s just one of those seasons where the snow comes in more modest doses than usual. We can still get some very large storms in March though, so we’ll have to see if Mother Nature does anything to fill that in. 12.2” 1/16/2021 Winter Storm Malcolm - Midwest low forming triple point low over New England 10.2” 2/2/2021 Winter Storm Orlena - slow moving system along Northeast coast 8.4” 1/21/2021 Weakening low pressure tracking through southern Quebec 8.2” 2/9/2021 Winter Storm Roland - weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region 7.7” 2/19/2021 Winter Storm Viola - low SE of benchmark with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow 7.4” 2/5/2021 Winter Storm Peggy - deep, mature cyclone moving north through the Great Lakes 7.1” 11/1/2020 Surface/upper-level trough + upslope from low departing near Northern Maine 6.0” 3/2/2021 Well-defined shortwave trough moving into the area 5.9” 12/26/2020 Lake-effect snow band extending northeastward off Lake Ontario 5.8” 1/1/2021 Winter Storm John - low to our west redeveloping over Gulf of Maine 5.5” 11/15/2020 Broad trough with surface low passing through central Quebec + backside LES/upslope 5.3” 11/2/2020 Clipper/upper-level shortwave 4.9” 12/17/2020 Winter Storm Gail - coastal storm tight to NJ coast heading eastward 4.5” 2/15/2021 Winter Storm Uri - low pressure moving through New England with mixed precipitation 3.8” 1/26/2021 Winter Storm Nathaniel - low pressure tracking south of New England 3.8” 12/5/2020 Winter Storm Eartha - compact coastal storm tracking near Cape Cod + departing upslope

I was just checking our BTV NWS point forecast here, and it’s got close to 2-5” for tonight’s edition. They had 1-2” here for last night’s system, which seemed right on track, so maybe they’re seeing something that makes this next one a bit more robust in our area. Our forecast for this next one is through Sunday night, so it may be the duration that helps. The summit point forecasts are in the 5-9” range up near Jay Peak, but that’s a bit more than they suggest in their discussion. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 649 AM EST Sat Mar 13 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...Next embedded shortwave trough in northwest flow arrives tonight with strong 700-500mb height falls noted. Should see widespread light snow shower activity develop after 03Z Sunday, and persist through the overnight hours. Orographic ascent and developing shallow daytime instability should allow scattered snow showers to persist thru Sunday across the higher terrain, especially for the central and northern Green Mtns. Should see snowfall amts of 0.5"-1" across valley locations, with snow-to- liquid ratios a fluffy 20:1. Orographic ascent brings 1-3" snowfall to the higher terrain, and possibly locally higher for the summits from Mt. Mansfield to Jay Peak (3-5") by late afternoon on Sunday.

Whoa, whoa… whoa… pump the brakes there Mr. slantstreaker. Your neighbor reported back-to-back 6”+ snowfall days on 2/2 and 2/3, so “soon to be two months” is a bit of a stretch. Also, he just reported 2.2” in this morning’s CoCoRaHS submission, so unless it really fell off over toward your place, you’re going to have to stop bragging about your fancy schmancy snowfall streak to all the SNE guys.

Event totals: 2.1” Snow/0.06” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 43.3 Snow Density: 2.3% H2O Temperature: 21.0 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 28.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

That’s awesome, and that is just about where we are right now. Thankfully our road is paved, so “Mud Season” isn’t really a thing in our immediate area, but it certainly is throughout the state for many. I’m not sure about that “Actual Spring” though – I guess we can get a smidge of that depending on the year, but I’m not sure what “Actual Spring” is out here in the northern mountains. To me it often feels like we’ve got this “Post Winter” season or “Spring Stick Season” that lasts through much of May, and then Bam! – summer comes at some point in June. They are missing the actual fall “Stick Season” though. The definitely need to update that, and I guess it would go right after “Actual Fall”? For now though, I guess it’s back to our regularly scheduled “Third Winter”.

Yeah, those events are both shown on just about every model, and I’ve added some of the related BTV NWS discussion below. It looks like we’ll get back to a bit more March reality for a while, with some additional snow potential shown into next week as well. Unfortunately, after a full thaw-freeze cycle like this recent one, it takes a good shot of L.E. for a decent resurfacing, or else you’re still stuck in that winter/spring hybrid period with only hard surfaces to show for it. But something in the 4-6” range will typically set up low angle stuff for nice turns depending on the snow density. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 654 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 649 AM EST Friday...Mostly sunny conditions across the North Country will persist until secondary front approaches from sern Ontario late in the afternoon into the evening hours. Remainder of the forecast is on track, including potential for snow showers and embedded snow squalls 00-03Z this evening. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 333 AM EST Friday...Transitioning into Saturday night, we will see a cold front sweep southeastwards across the region as a lobe of vorticity advects across the region. Good low-level convergence along with a suitable amount of moisture should promote snow showers overnight, especially across higher terrain of the northern Greens. Activity should wane as the front progresses southwards. However, by afternoon, temperatures climb into the 30s and diurnally driven instability should allow for another round of scattered snow showers, which will be well-timed with the base of the upper trough pivoting southeastwards during the day.

I suspect it’s more likely that this being the first day with warmth of this magnitude, the snow just hasn’t actually cycled to corn snow yet. If you’re starting with actual powder snow (vs. something heavily consolidated), it takes some rounds of freeze thaw to get to legitimate corn snow status. When the powder first warms, it just goes to mush, and then it really can take a number of cycles of freeze thaw to get to form large enough crystals to get to a respectable ski surface. Manmade or heavily skier/machine-packed snow can actually get there pretty quickly because much of the consolidation has been done. When I lived out in Montana I learned that it was typical among many backcountry skiers in the Northern Rockies to essentially stop skiing for April and much of May because of this issue. Spring is one of their snowier periods, and for the higher elevation spots that continue to get snow, there’s not usually enough time and/or the right temperatures between snowfalls to actually get beyond the mush. Once later May and June come around, the weather pattern will finally support the formation of good snow, and they start skiing again.

People are on track with the comment about winter lasting until May in the mountains of NNE though; it’s just what you plan on. What I’ve generally seen on this forum is that people start pining for spring way to soon. You can see it in the main thread now, where lots of folks want to jump right to sunny and 70s, and then it’s just a gripe session about how crappy the weather is all through March and April in SNE. I think you mentioned that you were heading south at some point anyway, but if you’re around at your NH place, I’d still plan on cold-weather activities right through May, even if we’re not necessarily getting snow. I seriously don’t plan on warm-weather activities around here until the Memorial Day/June 1st timeframe, because that’s typically the reality of how long it takes to actually get to consistently warm temperatures for outdoor stuff anyway. Fortunately, the snow is generally around until that point, so we can just keep skiing. I typically keep the ski racks on the vehicles through May, and then switch over to the bike racks at some point around that May/June transition. There were some good points made in that conversation about your site though - from everything we’ve see in the data, it looks like you’ve had a roughly average snowpack once it was set down. So somehow you got there, even if snowfall seems to be on the low side. Maybe this was a season with a bit lower snowfall, but better preservation than usual, and it averaged out with respect to snowpack? Coastal’s point was good to - maybe we don’t have a feel for the exact climate there yet with just 11 seasons? I think it’s clear that your site gets in on the typical NNE mountain upslope, but probably less than over here in the Northern Greens, and maybe less than Alex’s site as well? NW upslope seems to be the most common/everyday type of upslope due to the prevailing winds, so sites that maximize that effect probably get more of it on average. Maybe your site is more dependent on synoptic storms than some of the mountain areas around here, so if there’s a dearth of those, it affects the snowfall more in that area. The resorts around here in the Northern Greens are behind average pace on snowfall, but it seems like there are areas of NH and ME (especially based on snowfall numbers we’re seeing form the ME guys in the forum) that might be more off their usual pace because of fewer synoptic storms affecting that area.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. Last night I checked the boards before heading off to bed and found 0.1” of graupel, but that’s all I’ve seen for accumulation for this event thus far at our site. The models suggests the chance for a bit more precipitation today, but it’s also warming up, so I don’t expect there would be too much additional accumulation. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

That’s really interesting to hear about the March precipitation and temperatures. I don’t track temperatures here at my site, but my records show 3.97” of liquid for the month, which is about average. What I am seeing in my data is that there was almost no precipitation of any kind before the equinox – just 0.15” of rain. To go 20+ days here in March with almost nothing in the snow or rain department just makes me think of a sunnier/warmer regime than usual. It was certainly above freezing to a substantial degree during that period because the snowpack went from over a foot on the 1st, to nothing by the 15th. The snow we did get seems to have come from a long-duration event (or events) from about the 22nd through the 26th, and it’s got the look of a lot of moisture with minimal snow due to a warm system, perhaps with just some slushy accumulations down at this elevation. That is the period when NH-CS-10 picked up a similar amount of snow and liquid (so it must have been very warm), but they’ve also got another snowstorm on the 15th that brought 8.5” of snow from 2.12” of liquid. I recorded just the 0.15” of liquid over here during that one, so it must have been something off to the east that was almost a non-even here.

It would have been great if that second upslope system had delivered more than an inch or two, but putting that on top of the 9” from the midweek event has definitely kept the off piste conditions respectable at Bolton. I see they’re reporting 11” in the past week, and the bulk of that must be the sum of those two events. Not surprisingly, that powder has settled a bit, and that actually helps out somewhat with respect to how it skis. When that first round had fallen on Wednesday, it really was so incredibly dry that you sank right through it and got down to that relatively firm subsurface, but the settling, and the addition of a couple more inches that wasn’t quite as dry, gives you a bit more underfoot to cushion things. I was hearing noise from skiers and riders even on low angle groomed terrain today, and it wasn’t as if it was horribly icy, but the noise revealed that there was at least something firm there. It could just be a traffic issue on the groomed slopes – I’m not sure how much L.E. the mountain ultimately got from the two rounds of snow, but it probably wasn’t more than a quarter of an inch, and that’s only going to hold up so long with on piste skier traffic. Like you, I focused my time in the trees today, and I found the conditions there were far superior to the groomed terrain. I spent my time exploring more of the sidecountry off Wilderness that I’d visited last Saturday. There was plenty of snow for good powder turns on low-angle terrain, and even moderate and steep terrain weren’t too bad where people had skied and sort of packed the new snow into the base. The trees were the place to be though – the snow was protected from the wind in there, and I’d say there was plenty that had been blow off the trails as well. Temperatures were in the mid-teens F when I was out this afternoon, which is certainly nothing to complain about in terms of cold, but there was plenty of wind around, especially up high. We had some peeks of sun, but in general it was cloudy with some light flakes in the air, and it just sort of had the feel of a hum drum midwinter day. Being in the trees meant that I was out of the wind, but as others have been expressing, I could certainly use some warmth. I definitely found myself missing the nice temperatures up around the freezing mark that I encountered last Saturday, even if that storm did bring a touch of mixed precipitation. I’ve got a few shots from today’s outing below – I definitely like how the shot of the BV Hotel reveals the numerous layers in the snowpack from the past couple of months of winter storms: