Go Kart Mozart

The long-range GFS is funny.  The -NAO takes over the eastern 2/3rds of the continent!

For several years now we have seen forecasts of big midwestern blizzards a week out fizzle.  I suspect the 10th will be weaker, and battling the CAD.

Although, I wouldn't mind a big-dog out there, those are often table setters for us.

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

Navy is also north

Now that's the old George we all know and love!

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

12z GEFS looks like dog shit for the 4th.

Gone.

I'll alert the media.

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah at this point, I think the 5th only serves to act as a 50/50 for the 7th. still need a phase there in some capacity

Yeah, we need Hazey to get his blizzard on the 5th a la the GFS.

Nice Hazey

Euro and GFS with significant MJO differences in January.  Let's hope euro is right...or February could be in some trouble.

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, the folks who were saying that this El Niño already peaked are going to be dead wrong 

That's interesting.  I look at the analysis page on TT, and see an anomaly of about 1.6c in 3.4.  Am I comparing apples and hammers?

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The last thing you want models doing is heuristic output. You want them to obey physics as much as possible or their solutions will be even more error-prone.

At first yes, but what if the model is self-educating and learns from past errors?  Isn't that where we are heading with AI?

Imagine a (dystopian) world where the weather models are flawless...what would we do to entertain ourselves?

Surprising wind on the backside.

1 hour ago, MBRI said:

Mowed 12-25-2023 

You mowed the lawn on Christmas day?  The neighbors must love you.

55 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

 

 

Are their any stats on the accuracy of the weeklies post day 14?  I would guess they have a proficiency between 50% and 55%.  Coin toss or a tad better.

36 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Pic from 12/27/2010...  Big-time clean-up operation in Burington, CT...

What is that stuff they're plowing?

20 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Welcome to VT.  Sorry to tell you though, most of us up here don't really consider what Brattleboro experiences as "true" winter.  It's the banana belt of VT. 

Isn't it in a nasty valley-snow hole too?

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought the pattern after this 28-30 thing was supposed to vastly improve? Going into the new year? No? 

The fun begins 1/20 to maybe 1/27.  A four week spell can make for a great winter down here.  I'll bet you have fond memories 2010-2011...or ENE in 14-15.  And before some moron chimes in that 2015 is not walking through that door....that's not the point.  We can have a great month without 100".

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be time to place the dollhouse at the 40yd line. 

That sounds like it oughta be funny....but what does it mean?

The American suite takes the MJO on a robust tour of the bad regions starting in early January.  This will have to be watched.  Ray's idea of January 20th and beyond seems to be gaining merit...that time frame will also match up with the SSW effects....assuming that actually comes to pass.

And I wonder if the Gaspe has ever had a green Christmas?  Funny how the snow cover line fits the St. Lawrence like a glove.

This may be all sound and fury signifying nothing....but Nino 1-2 temps have crashed while the rest remains steady eddy.

Well, Santa didn't come with any big snowstorms on this morning's maps.  Merry Christmas everyone!

A 993 75 miles east of Cape May and it gives us....nothing.  That's a neat trick!

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just get me a good high and not recycled Humpback Whale breath from Labrador. 

Hmm, I'd rather the humpback whale breath for Labrador than dry air from western Quebec with that gives you a 200 volt shock static electricity every time you touch a metal object.

And speaking of static electricity, in the 1888 Great Plains children's blizzard.....according to best guesses they received about 6" of snow, with winds sustained at 50 gusting to 80, with temps falling to -15f.   People were literally getting knocked on their asses when they tried to load their wood stoves.  

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What happened to all the weird lows forming and energy hanging back, and all the weird evolutions yesterday on the GFS?  Models can’t seem to hang on to any one solution for more than one run it seems…??? 

I still see all sorts of lobes swinging around the gyre, after the rainer.  This isn't over.  Nothing's over!

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Given the last two pages were tied to this mornings temps (17) and the weather back in 1899, I surmise there's nothing on the horizon for the remainder of '23.

No, but we have a congrats Richmond on the euro!

95-96 was like a batter closing his eyes while swinging....and doubling up the alley every time.